BRTD's county map predictions

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is still happening. No updates for today or yesterday because I was working 10-hour shifts both days, and visited a strip club last night where I got a handjob from a stripper without even asking for it (no lie). Unfortunately I also received a minor head injury giving me a small concussion that night as well, meaning I'm probably going to require a little more sleep than normal the next week or so. I'll try to throw together a few tonight but I'm probably going to sleep a little early. However I'll get most of these done by the end of the weekend (remember, weekend for me = Sunday + Monday), and possibly all. Most likely I'll finish off the west and the other easy states before getting to the ones you guys want though.

[Torie]

This is still happening. No updates for today or yesterday because I was working 10-hour shifts both days, and visited a strip club last night where I got a handjob from a stripper without even asking for it (no lie). Unfortunately I also received a minor head injury giving me a small concussion that night as well, meaning I'm probably going to require a little more sleep than normal the next week or so. I'll try to throw together a few tonight but I'm probably going to sleep a little early. However I'll get most of these done by the end of the weekend (remember, weekend for me = Sunday + Monday), and possibly all. Most likely I'll finish off the west and the other easy states before getting to the ones you guys want though.

Yes, you clearly must be exhausted. Less is more!

Your maps are quite sensible. What national margin are you assuming for your maps by the way?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama +~5

[Eraserhead]

This is still happening. No updates for today or yesterday because I was working 10-hour shifts both days, and visited a strip club last night where I got a handjob from a stripper without even asking for it (no lie). Unfortunately I also received a minor head injury giving me a small concussion that night as well, meaning I'm probably going to require a little more sleep than normal the next week or so. I'll try to throw together a few tonight but I'm probably going to sleep a little early. However I'll get most of these done by the end of the weekend (remember, weekend for me = Sunday + Monday), and possibly all. Most likely I'll finish off the west and the other easy states before getting to the ones you guys want though.

Should I bother asking what brought about the head injury... or is it one of those things that is just better left unsaid?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Ronnie]

Good job, BRTD.  I checked all of the margins, and they seem a-ok.  I would maybe flip Salem county, since I don't expect Obama to win NJ by more than 12 points, but it's unclear to me.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Ronnie]

Spokane is a no-no.  I will be shocked if Obama carries it.  Bush carried it by 12, and it's trending GOP.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm going to go out on a limb with some of these of course. They're not fun if you don't.

Anyway, here's the last one of the night, and probably the most anticipated one so far:

[Ronnie]

Larimer and Jefferson are the ones that piss me off in general, because I have no idea which way they will go (in a close race, at least).  Larimer pretty much trended hard to the Democrats because all of the Nader voters broke for Kerry in '04.  Hence that Bush got the same percentage of votes in '00 and '04.

Jefferson pisses me off because it always votes the same way as Arapahoe, but I feel it will vote for McCain in a close race.

The question for those is if McCain can close the gap nationally.  If he can, I feel Jefferson and Larimer will vote for him.  Stay tuned.

[freedomburns]

I'm going to go out on a limb with some of these of course. They're not fun if you don't.

Anyway, here's the last one of the night, and probably the most anticipated one so far:

Today I saw two conflicting stories on CO.  Rolling Stone says that the Repukes have purged millions of voters from the rolls here, ten times more than what is usually done in most states, and the fix is already in for this one to go unexpectedly for McCain, despite consistent polling for Obama.

I also read that the Rethuglicans had pulled out of this stae today and were abandoning any hope of taking it, as they have previously abandoned hope for Michigan and Wisconsin.  They have stopped buying TV advertising and are generally closing up shop.

Nice maps, BRTD!

[bgwah]

Clark definitely won't be >60% McCain. Obama has a fairly good chance there, IMO.  If Obama's large lead continues he may also take Asotin (another county that definitely won't be >60% McCain---this place swings like crazy and I really doubt McCain will do extremely well here even though Bush did), Skamania, and Klickitat.

Spokane would be extremely close under such conditions. Alcon and I both have it going Obama by a fraction of a percent.

Whitman is also hard to predict. It's a likely >40% county, IMO. Whoever wins it will do so by less than 2%. It may be a college county but WSU is fairly conservative as far as big state schools go.

I would also knock Adams down to >60 McCain.

[NOVA Green]

Why is Obama not hitting 60% in Blaine county, BRTD?

Because I didn't realize Kerry came that close and Obama will likely go over the top. Will be changed.

Thanks BRTD! I appreciate your hard work here, I'm glad that someone is making this effort.

Assuming Obama +5 as per your comments, I think that there is an extremely good chance that Marion, Jefferson, Polk, and Curry counties will flip towards Obama. Jackson county is more of a long-shot, although it has been moving increasingly Dem as a result of migration from California and the social conservative vote is much more diluted than in the past.

There is also an outside chance that Deschutes county may go Democratic this year, despite the prevalence of upper-income voters. Remember that this is a county which voted for Lonsdale over Hatfield in '90, and has been trending Democratic the past few cycles.

[Eraserhead]

Do New York. I know my main man Obama is taking Hamilton this year!

[NOVA Green]

Larimer and Jefferson are the ones that piss me off in general, because I have no idea which way they will go (in a close race, at least).  Larimer pretty much trended hard to the Democrats because all of the Nader voters broke for Kerry in '04.  Hence that Bush got the same percentage of votes in '00 and '04.

Jefferson pisses me off because it always votes the same way as Arapahoe, but I feel it will vote for McCain in a close race.

The question for those is if McCain can close the gap nationally.  If he can, I feel Jefferson and Larimer will vote for him.  Stay tuned.

I'll tell you for a fact that McCain is losing at least 500 Republican votes from the HP-FTC facilities if not more. Remember that Carly is an "economic adviser" and that this company is still losing jobs overseas as a result of shipping manufacturing jobs overseas to Ireland and Singapore. It might be a relatively small percentage of county votes, but this is one of major large companies operating in Larimer County, and every time a large local employer lays people off while shipping jobs overseas in an election year, it usually doesn't benefit the incumbent pro free-trade party.

[opebo]

...visited a strip club last night where I got a handjob from a stripper without even asking for it (no lie)

Dude!  Tell us more.  Was it 'to completion'?

[nclib]

Good work, BRTD. Are you predicting any Kerry counties to go to McCain?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Clark definitely won't be >60% McCain.

Big mistake. I'll change that.

...visited a strip club last night where I got a handjob from a stripper without even asking for it (no lie)

Dude!  Tell us more.  Was it 'to completion'?

Hmmm, I'll PM this one.

Good work, BRTD. Are you predicting any Kerry counties to go to McCain?

Maybe. I don't think about individual counties until I do the state. Maybe some in Appalachia.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Maybe. I don't think about individual counties until I do the state. Maybe some in Appalachia.

     I'd bet on a few in KY and/or TN since McCain has a real shot at doing better than Bush in those states. Maybe OK, had Kerry actually won any counties there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Time for some boring ones:

[Ronnie]

I would have made this exact map, good job.

[Brittain33]

Very interesting. Gore carried Monmouth and there was a huge 9/11 effect there--Middletown famously had a large number of losses that day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I can't believe I forgot this easy one:

[Ronnie]

Obama should be breaking 60% in Cheshire county, NH.  Kerry got 59% there.