Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Eraserhead]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

So now you start looking at R2k as if it has value?  Because I tried to include it in my daily update just for that reason (trends) and you forced me to stop by aggravating me about it every day.  I think that's highly hypocritical and if R2K showed a trend in the opposite direction, you wouldn't give it the time of day.

This is J.J.

[Lunar]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

So now you start looking at R2k as if it has value?  Because I tried to include it in my daily update just for that reason (trends) and you forced me to stop by aggravating me about it every day.  I think that's highly hypocritical and if R2K showed a trend in the opposite direction, you wouldn't give it the time of day.

This is J.J.

Anyway, he fought tooth and nail to make me remove R2K from my list in the same manner that I removed Zogby and today it provides valuable insight to him?! AHGHUAG

[J. J.]

I'll wait for Gallup and TIPP, but this have been the tightening I was talking about yesterday.  In terms of trends, McCain supporters should be very happy about any shift to McCain on R2K, because of the weighting.

So now you start looking at R2k as if it has value?  Because I tried to include it in my daily update just for that reason (trends) and you forced me to stop by aggravating me about it every day.  I think that's highly hypocritical and if R2K showed a trend in the opposite direction, you wouldn't give it the time of day.

No, but I'd worry a bit about any Obama drop on that poll, if I was supporting Obama.  I'll worry about any loss for McCain on BG.  Neither is a good poll, because of the weighting.  I think I've posted within the last two days.

Alcon, if the polling was showing across the board increases for Obama, I'd say it. 

 I really give a great of weight to to Rasmussen, Gallup (traditional after reading Sam's comments), and TIPP.  After those ABC/WP and Hotline.  The lessers are GB, R2K, and Zogby.

Of the top three, two show gains for McCain; the third one unchanged.  The second tier is split Obama and no poll.  The two third tier two show a McCain gain, and one no poll.

Is the numbers were reversed, I could not Obama was gaining.  I cannot say McCain is gaining today.

In all fairness, I try to ignore Zogby.  GB and R2K are really third tier polls, because of their weighting (and I've said if R2K fixed the weighting, I'd give it a higher rank).  It's third tier because of the weighting, which is overly pro-Democrat.  This is an overly pro-Democrat poll that is showing the Democratic candidate dropping.  It just could be a bad sample, but it could be a trend.  That's why I look all polls (except Zogby), and didn't proclaim tightening yesterday.

[TheGlobalizer]

I think J.J. is just saying that pro-McCain movement on a pro-D-weighted poll is good news for McCain supporters, not making an attribution of accuracy because the numbers favor his candidate.

A trend on a bad poll is not necessarily as easily dismissed as the poll itself, particularly when the concern is a political lean in the numbers, not poor overall methodology.

Me, I just toss R2K and move on.  I'm mostly sticking to Rasmussen, Gallup, and TIPP at this point, though I really want to give Battleground a big hug.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - 10/27/08
Obama 47.0% (+0.5%)
McCain 44.2% (+0.9%)
Undecided 8.8% (-1.4%)

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Index Updated...

[J. J.]

IBD/TIPP - 10/27/08
Obama 47.0% (+0.5%)
McCain 44.2% (+0.9%)
Undecided 8.8% (-1.4%)

If that gap was with a Bradley Effect, I'd believe it.  That gap just seems too low.

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY TUESDAY: Obama 49%; McCain 45%; 6% Undecided.... Developing...

[Rowan]

Zogby
Obama 49.0%(-0.9)
McCain 44.7%(-0.4)

McCain nets 0.5 today as more move to undecided.

[Tender Branson]

Zogby
Obama 49.0%(-0.9)
McCain 44.7%(-0.4)

McCain nets 0.5 today as more move to undecided.

For Zogby's weighting this looks about right. Obama still leads 51-35 with Independents. If we adjust it to 40D, 34R, 26I - Obama would lead by 6 or so.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 28, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.0%	44.7%	O+4.3%	M+0.5%	It's Zogby
Rasmussen	50.89%	46.01%	O+4.88%	O+0.28%	Good Obama sample jumped on.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	Nothing going on here as far as I can tell.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	NC	Ditto.
R2000/DKos	50%	43%	O+7%	M+1%	Still trending upward for McCain here.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	M+3%	A good McCain sample jumped on, but also a good Obama sample bumped off.
Traditional	49%	47%	O+2%	M+3%
IBD/TIPP	47.7%	43.7%	O+4.0%	O+1.2%	Either a good Obama sample jumped on or a good McCain one dropped off.  Tough to tell.
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	NC	Nothing much going on here.
POLLS AVERAGE	49.82%	44.49%	O+5.33%	M+0.39%	No big movement today.

[Sam Spade]

btw, I have a rumor that IBD/TIPP today will be Obama +4 (whatever that means in tenths of a percentage)

[J. J.]

btw, I have a rumor that IBD/TIPP today will be Obama +4 (whatever that means in tenths of a percentage)

That would be reasonable.  2.8 seems low.

[ill ind]

IBD/TIPP

Obama 47.7
McCain 43.7
Undecided 8.6

Sam Spade's rumor was right on the money!!

Ill_Ind

[Sam Spade]

Polling average updated for the day.

[Sam Spade]

Daily Tracker Table - October 28, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	49.0%	44.7%	O+4.3%	M+0.5%	It's Zogby
Rasmussen	50.89%	46.01%	O+4.88%	O+0.28%	Good Obama sample jumped on.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	NC	Nothing going on here as far as I can tell.
Hotline	50%	42%	O+8%	NC	Ditto.
R2000/DKos	50%	43%	O+7%	M+1%	Still trending upward for McCain here.
Gallup
Expanded	51%	44%	O+7%	M+3%	A good McCain sample jumped on, but also a good Obama sample bumped off.
Traditional	49%	47%	O+2%	M+3%
IBD/TIPP	47.7%	43.7%	O+4.0%	O+1.2%	Either a good Obama sample jumped on or a good McCain one dropped off.  Tough to tell.
ABC/WP	52%	45%	O+7%	NC	Nothing much going on here.
POLLS AVERAGE	49.82%	44.49%	O+5.33%	M+0.39%	No big movement today.

On IBD/TIPP, I relooked over the samples and the sample that dropped off was the one that pushed McCain from 3.7 behind to 1.1 behind a week ago, probably one of the stronger McCain samples on the poll so far.  That should be included in the analysis.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I will assume that today's Zogby does not contain good news for McCain, since Sludge hasn't posted anything about it yet.

[Reds4]

Yeah I was thinking that must be the case... must have been a good Obama day.

I will assume that today's Zogby does not contain good news for McCain, since Sludge hasn't posted anything about it yet.

[kevinatcausa]

Didn't Zogby have a big jump towards McCain 3 days ago?  If so, there may be a jump back today as that sample drops off. 

[Rowan]

Zogby
Obama 49.1%(+0.1)
McCain 44.4%(-0.3)

[Rococo4]

seems static the last 2 days, but the -0.3 will officially bump McCain down to 44 which sucks

[Reds4]

I believe these results replaced the one day sample where McCain trailed Obama only 49-46 so McCain still had a decent day of polling.

[Tender Branson]

R2000/DailyKos - Wednesday Oct. 29:

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 44 (+1)

McCain had a good Tuesday sample (50-45 Obama)

[Umengus]

R2000/DailyKos - Wednesday Oct. 29:

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 44 (+1)

McCain had a good Tuesday sample (50-45 Obama)

""""""good"""""""

[J. J.]

R2000/DailyKos - Wednesday Oct. 29:

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 44 (+1)

McCain had a good Tuesday sample (50-45 Obama)

It's an overly weighted poll for the Democrats.