Obama supporters - Are you worried?

[Keystone Phil]

After all, I'm now predicting an Obama win (barring some huge October surprise). Are you sure you want to be so confident these days? 

[Sensei]

crap.

McCain +20

[Firefly]

After all, I'm now predicting an Obama win (barring some huge October surprise). Are you sure you want to be so confident these days? 

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. If Walter returns to his old narrative, then I might be.

[Ronnie]

On an unrelated note, will the GOP regain congress in 2010 or 2012?

[The Mikado]

I've never been overconfident about this election and I'm not now.

I do think Obama will win, but I won't be confident in it until Wolf Blitzer says, "CNN is now projecting that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States."

[Lunar]

Meh, I'm more amused with the people who are still predicting a big McCain win.

[Nym90]

After 2000 and 2004 I refuse to get my hopes up until I see the real numbers come in on election night.

[Keystone Phil]

On an unrelated note, will the GOP regain congress in 2010 or 2012?

It takes a lot to say, with confidence, what will happen a month from now. I don't dare make predictions about 2010 or 2012. Obama could be a disaster and the GOP could make insane gains or Obama can be fine or even very popular and we could be in even more trouble. I like to remind my Republican friends of the latter point.

Let's just say that under the normal midterm circumstances, I personally stand a chance at seriously benefitting. I'd love to believe that 2010 will be awesome for the GOP but we don't know what it will be like.

[Stranger in a strange land]

After 2000 and 2004 I refuse to get my hopes up until I see the real numbers come in on election night.

I'm not getting overconfident either. Sure things seem to be going well. A little too well.

[Mr.Phips]

On an unrelated note, will the GOP regain congress in 2010 or 2012?

Probably not.  Democrats are likely to have around 60 seats in the Senate and around 260 seats in the House.  Obama will not pull a Bill Clinton and simply do nothing to help Democrats hold the House.  If Republicans did regain Congress in 2010, Obama would surely be reelected since he would have something to run hard against, much like Truman in 1948 or Clinton in 1996.  

[Nym90]

After 2000 and 2004 I refuse to get my hopes up until I see the real numbers come in on election night.

I'm not getting overconfident either. Sure things seem to be going well. A little too well.

They've got us right where they want us!

All the kids will stay home thinking Obama's got it in the bag.

[Firefly]

On an unrelated note, will the GOP regain congress in 2010 or 2012?

So far, Republicans have 18 seats to defend, Democrats 15, 1 open.

[memphis]

What I want to know is, why can't Obama close the deal. He should be up by more now. His didn't get a weekend boost, so McCain is really surging. By 2010, only black and rich coastal elites will be Democrats because of the Obama depression

[Nym90]

On an unrelated note, will the GOP regain congress in 2010 or 2012?

So far, Republicans have 18 seats to defend, Democrats 15, 1 open.

Dems had more seats to defend than the GOP in 2006. Any reasonable person thus would've never dreamed of a Dem takeover of the Senate in 2006 if asked in December 2004.

Be patient.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama is ahead, and is doing well.

However, the Democrats worst habit is letting victories get away from them.

He's not falling into the same trap Kerry did, he's not taking any s**t and is sending some back - it's not nice, it's not new politics, but it has to be done.

Barring some unexpected scandal (major Sean Hannity... MAJOR scandal) Obama SHOULD win this thing - but McCain SHOULD also close the gap (however if McCain isn't within 5 by last week in October.... he's done). The only thing that can close Obama down is turnout.

[Firefly]

On an unrelated note, will the GOP regain congress in 2010 or 2012?

So far, Republicans have 18 seats to defend, Democrats 15, 1 open.

Dems had more seats to defend than the GOP in 2006. Any reasonable person thus would've never dreamed of a Dem takeover of the Senate in 2006 if asked in December 2004.

Be patient.

Just stating facts.  I made no judgment about them. 

[ucscgaldamez]

As a conservative democrat, I'll be ok with McCain winning. Thus, I'm not worried. I do think polls will tighten up and that's a good thing for turnout. I want Obama to win.

[Eraserhead]

Meh, I'm more amused with the people who are still predicting a big McCain win.

You mean Ghostmonkey, DWTL and Dick Morris? I think that's about it.

[Nym90]

Meh, I'm more amused with the people who are still predicting a big McCain win.

You mean Ghostmonkey, DWTL and Dick Morris? I think that's about it.

Dick Morris has Arkansas as lean Obama now. Unless he's changed back to having Colorado as solid McCain and Iowa as lean McCain as he did the week before, due to the wake of Palin's debate performance (haven't heard from toe fetishist lately).

[Eraserhead]

Meh, I'm more amused with the people who are still predicting a big McCain win.

You mean Ghostmonkey, DWTL and Dick Morris? I think that's about it.

Dick Morris has Arkansas as lean Obama now. Unless he's changed back to having Colorado as solid McCain and Iowa as lean McCain as he did the week before, due to the wake of Palin's debate performance (haven't heard from toe fetishist lately).

Dear God, I thought you were joking and then I checked his map. It's even worse now (only in the other direction). KY is "lean Obama". hahahaha

[Eraserhead]

Oh wait, but Indiana is still "solid McCain".... lol

[bgwah]

After all, I'm now predicting an Obama win (barring some huge October surprise). Are you sure you want to be so confident these days? 

Why would this worry me? Your predictions tend to be wrong for a clear reason--you're simply optimistic about the chances of the candidates you support. How often do you incorrectly predict a Democratic win?

[Keystone Phil]

How often do you incorrectly predict a Democratic win?

Well, I did predict that Knowles would win in AK in the 2004 U.S. Senate race. I also predicted Chris John to win the LA U.S. Senate seat that was up in 2004. 

[The Ex-Factor]

After 2000 and 2004 I refuse to get my hopes up until I see the real numbers come in on election night.

Dear god, Nate Silver is right.
Democrats are like Cubs and/or Red Sox fans. At the first sign of trouble they start panicking, and when things are going well, they always expect it to get worse.
Republicans are like Yankee fans. They expect to win, but sometimes it doesn't work out that way.

Can't blame either side, really, considering how dominant the GOP has been on the federal level since 1968.