GA-Research 2000:McCain leads by 7%

[TheresNoMoney]

9/29-10/1

McCain   50%
Obama  43%

Link

See link for internals.

[Kalimantan]

Fair enough. Senate race looks interesting

[TheresNoMoney]

If black voters can make up at least 31% of the electorate, Obama can squeek out a win in this state.

[Lunar]

This same poll had Chambliss only down 1 point.

So....

[TheresNoMoney]

This same poll had Chambliss only down 1 point.

So....

The last SurveyUSA poll had Chambliss up 2 points. And a Rasmussen poll from mid-September had Chambliss up 7 points.

[Kalimantan]

This same poll had Chambliss only down 1 point.

So....

just like SUSA's latest ?

Anyway, Nate Silver has this: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.html

A related question is whether the pollsters are underrepresenting the black vote in their turnout estimates in states like Georgia. I think they might be. In their past two surveys of Georgia, SurveyUSA pegged black voter turnout at 25-26 percent. This is a pretty safe assumption, since it exactly matches the Secretary of State's turnout estimate from 2004. But this isn't 2004. I would be surprised if black turnout wasn't at least 27-28 percent, and somewhere in the 29-31 percent range is entirely possible. If those numbers are achieved, Georgia is pretty close to being a toss-up. And if it is a toss-up for Barack Obama, it is probably also a toss-up for Jim Martin, who is attempting to unseat Saxby Chambliss from the Senate.

NB: R2K's poll has blacks at 27%

[Tender Branson]

Even under the best case scenario, Obama's ceiling in GA is probably 48-49%.

Whites (65%): Obama 25%
African-Americans (30%): Obama 95%
Others (5%): Obama 80%

Obama wins 49% in GA. If he can't get higher than 25% among Whites, there's no chance he'll win this state.

[Rowan]

If black voters can make up at least 31% of the electorate, Obama can squeek out a win in this state.

Yayy, lets use those black people as pawns to win elections! How nice of the Democratic party.

[TheresNoMoney]

Yayy, lets use those black people as pawns to win elections! How nice of the Democratic party.

Those are just the demographics, plain and simple. Same could be said of white voters in Mississippi or other southern states.

[memphis]

Back to reality: Obama's not winning GA.

[longtimelurker]

If black voters can make up at least 31% of the electorate, Obama can squeek out a win in this state.

Yayy, lets use those black people as pawns to win elections! How nice of the Democratic party.

Better yet, let's run one of those "pawns" at the top of the ticket!  That's really "using" them!

You _are_ aware of the definition of "pawn", aren't you?  How about "use"?

[Rowan]

Yayy, lets use those black people as pawns to win elections! How nice of the Democratic party.

Better yet, let's run one of those "pawns" at the top of the ticket!  That's really "using" them!

You _are_ aware of the definition of "pawn", aren't you?  How about "use"?
[/quote]

Democrats view blacks as numbers not people for elections.

[longtimelurker]

Yayy, lets use those black people as pawns to win elections! How nice of the Democratic party.

I did _not_ write the above.  YOU did.  I wrote the following, _not_ you:

Better yet, let's run one of those "pawns" at the top of the ticket!  That's really "using" them!

You _are_ aware of the definition of "pawn", aren't you?  How about "use"?

You did write:

Democrats view blacks as numbers not people for elections.
[/quote]