Obama campaign to roll out 13 minute Keating 5 documentary at noon tommorow.

[Politico]

The Republicans are great at playing dirty. Let's do what we're good at!

Ain't going to work this time. If anything, it's going to backfire and lead to a landslide on par with 1980.

[Lunar]

I'm seeing a tad bit of over confidence here by the McCain backers. Might be wise not to assume Obama can't play dirty or rough just because most democrats can't or won't.

From what I can tell this is a response to Palin's attempt to associate Obama with terrorists (Ayers) the other day. The McCain's campaign attack of 'Obama = terrorist buddy!' is being countered directly by new adds and message that McCain is attempting to distract from the economy. Then what more, they put forth this documentary to demonstrate why McCain might be trying to distract from the economy.

Overall, I think the move is keyed into two modes. The first is the logic I just described. The latter is in fact to try to goad McCain into continuing the negative attacks. The less McCain gets to talk about McCain, and the more Obama gets to talk about McCain, the more time Obama has to coast to election day. If on the other hand McCain becomes capable of talking about why people should vote for him, Obama's job becomes more difficult again (aka, a return to mid summer when he had a slow decline in the polls).

And as for the expected critique of my analysis here, that if Obama is spending so much time talking McCain that he won't have time to talk about why people should vote for him, who has pulled out of Michigan. Obama's advantage at this point is his ability to raise funds continually through election day. More money = the ability to talk about any and all subjects simultaneously via commercials. He bypasses the media and pundits and gives both the anti-McCain message and the pro-Obama message simultaneously.

As for folks wondering were the heck I came from just popping in like this, I'm a long time lurker whom finally opted into getting an account.

Welcome!  It's 5 am in New Hampshire

I disagree with you though that Obama wants this race to descend into an Obama-McCain personality match.  Clearly if partisanship becomes eroded and the (D) and (R) become removed from the candidates' names, McCain has the advantage.

Obama is simply trying to keep McCain's attacks a wash.  McCain wants to talk about taxes?  Obama will say McCain wants the biggest middle-class tax-hike in history (his new ad).  McCain wants to talk about associates?  Obama will say McCain wanted to deregulate and is corrupt himself.  Thus, every time the media reports on Obama's attacks, they will mention the counter-response with roughly equal time, meaning a narrative is difficult to develop.  Even ignoring the media, anyone that sees both attack ads but ignores the media (apolitical, ignorant swing voters) won't know how to differentiate between the two candidates when it comes to these issues (raising taxes, associates), meaning these issues cease to be clear winners for McCain.

But they are still better ground for McCain than the economy, so it's still his best strategy, although he shouldn't have pre-announced it with a Palin comment in Omaha and Tucker Bounds announcing the McCain campaign would "turn the page on the economy" to attack Obama's character on a Saturday - giving Obama two days to come up with the counter-attack before the attack itself airs on the start of the news cycle on Monday.

[MODU]

Seems like a waste of money to me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. I guess it was only a matter of time. Though I wonder... wouldn't it make more sense to make (very) short TV ads hurling the Keating mud at McCain without going into any real detail, than long webads [qm]. Just from an evil, cynical point of view.

[Brittain33]

Let's roll out Ayers, Reverend Wright, Farrakhan, Rezko, Khalidi, Pfledger, whatever.

This would have more force as a threat if McCain hadn't said he was going to do it a few days ago and if that wasn't Schmidt's m.o. as a campaign manager anyway.

McCain's going to do it, and it's going to make him look worse. That's why he hasn't done it so far. It's not the sword of Damocles hanging over Obama's head.

People have talked about McCain's chess moves and superior strategy, but let's look at this sequence of events:

1. McCain campaign leaks word about how it's going to get really mean now and he's going to question Obama's character
2. Obama gives a speech preemptively attacking McCain for stooping to personal attacks because he wants to distract voters from the economy, and Obama says the economy is what matters to voters, even if McCain is desperate
3. Obama campaign attacks McCain on Keating.

This looks very well-played by Obama. Of course, it's easy to look good when you're already in the lead.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ah. I guess it was only a matter of time. Though I wonder... wouldn't it make more sense to make (very) short TV ads hurling the Keating mud at McCain without going into any real detail, than long webads [qm]. Just from an evil, cynical point of view.

It has to be done as an internet piece because:
(1) The only people who watch internet attacks are hard-boiled partisans.
(2) The only people who care about the McCain/Keating stuff are hard-boiled partisans.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah. I guess it was only a matter of time. Though I wonder... wouldn't it make more sense to make (very) short TV ads hurling the Keating mud at McCain without going into any real detail, than long webads [qm]. Just from an evil, cynical point of view.

It has to be done as an internet piece because:
(1) The only people who watch internet attacks are hard-boiled partisans.
(2) The only people who care about the McCain/Keating stuff are hard-boiled partisans.

To 2; mud is mud. Don't matter if people are interested in it or not. Surely repeatedly mentioning, in passing, that McCain was involved in that mucky business would make more sense than this. The same thing can be said of the attacks on Obama's associates.

[Lunar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g72BuIvMbWY&eurl

There's the new 13-minute video.  Remember that the Keating scandal was a banking/financial scandal of sorts.

[Likely Voter]

Clearly this is something they had ready to counter ayers. So if the McCain campaign goes with the Wright thing, what does the Obama campaign have ready for that?

[Lunar]

Clearly this is something they had ready to counter ayers. So if the McCain campaign goes with the Wright thing, what does the Obama campaign have ready for that?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/The_middle_name.html

[Lunar]

A glance at Google Trends finds "keating economics" the second-most-popular search term right now. Numbers 8, 11, 12, and 21 are terms like "keating five" and "charles keating."

Bill Ayers shows up at 36, just after "mccain keating."
http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends

From BSmith

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Us liberals have had to put up with the extreme right in power for 8 years, so you guys should be able to survive some centrists in power.

Obama's no centrist.

You're right, he's center-right.

You've just proved your clueless on Obama's record. No one who supports partial birth abortion and drivers license for illegals is a center-right person.

[J. J.]

The Obama camp sent out an e-mail blast telling everyone to watch this and spread it around.

Things are about to get very, very bloody.

If Obama wants a war, we'll bring it to him.

I used to believe McCain shouldn't go down the road of Reverend Wright.  Now I think he has no choice.

Hell, if this Keating thing is a legitimate issue, then we should just be able to make up an issue.  Let's make ads saying that Obama advocated mandatory interracial dating, or some sh**t like that.  If he's going to lie about our candidate, we're going to lie about him.  We'll show him how dirty we can get.  We will destroy him.

Hell, I used to want the campaign to just get over with.  Now, I want more time to dig up as much dirt on Obama as possible.

lol. Pathetic.

I know it's pathetic, but I just think imagine the US with the O as president.

I think I'll just crawl in a corner now.

Us liberals have had to put up with the extreme right in power for 8 years, so you guys should be able to survive some centrists in power.

Unfortunately, the Democrats didn't nominate one.

[Dan the Roman]

Actually this is smart. What was previously a story about McCain attacking Obama over Ayers, is now a story about Obama and McCain hitting each other over Keating. By introducing Keating, Obama has ensured that every news article that mentions Ayers will also have to mention Keating, and in the current environment, Keating is far more relevant than Ayers. After all, McCain helped an S & L steal people's money in  a previous credit crisis.

I know Mr. Moderate doesn't think people will care, but I am willing to bet this will have far more of an impact than Ayers which has been done to death for the last six months. No one who cares about the Ayers thing is voting for Obama now. Many people don't know about Keating. They will now.

[J. J.]

If it's just a You-Tube type thing, it's worthless, and a waste of money.

[Alcon]

If it's just a You-Tube type thing, it's worthless, and a waste of money.

YouTube viewership is obviously not the primary intent of the web ads.

[Torie]

Messing with Keating might backfire. McCain will be ready. Indeed, he will admit he made some mistakes, unlike Obama admitting he made mistakes with Wright and Ayers. It is a matter of honesty, about one's past. I think it is a mistake, because I don't think Obama needs to take this risk right now.

[Lunar]

Something tells me the "I made mistakes" message won't really resonate with voters over the largest financial/corruption investigation in modern political history the same way that message might resonate over past drug-use.

On the other hand, the Ayers story is easier to articulate.  Obama was friends with an admitted domestic terrorist. 

[J. J.]

Something tells me the "I made mistakes" message won't really resonate with voters over the largest financial/corruption investigation in modern political history the same way that message might resonate over past drug-use.

I think it will, especially since nothing came from it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You know, this one won't sell, IMO.  The connection is just so weak it won't reach into the minds of the voters.

[Lunar]

David Plouffe just sent me a viral mail message!

Colin --

John McCain wants you to forget about his role in our country's last major financial
crisis and costly bailout: the savings and loan crisis of the late '80s and early
'90s.

But voters deserve to know that the failed philosophy and culture of corruption that
created the savings and loan crisis then are alive in the current crisis -- and in
John McCain's plans for our economic future.

We just released a short documentary about John McCain's role in that financial
crisis -- watch it now and share it with your friends:

http://my.barackobama.com/keatingvideo

Voters should know the facts about John McCain's poor judgment -- judgment that has
twice placed him on the wrong side of history.

Please forward this email to everyone you know.

Thanks,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

[Torie]

Good job David Plouffe! Keep punching!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.barackobama.com/images/keating/pdf/Keating_ABC.pdf

I'm going to Kinko's sometime, going to print out a fuckload of these, staple them, and distribute them.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.barackobama.com/images/keating/pdf/Keating_ABC.pdf

I'm going to Kinko's sometime, going to print out a fuckload of these, staple them, and distribute them.

...

And yet you brag about how your area is so Pro Obama. What difference does this make?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.barackobama.com/images/keating/pdf/Keating_ABC.pdf

I'm going to Kinko's sometime, going to print out a fuckload of these, staple them, and distribute them.

...

And yet you brag about how your area is so Pro Obama. What difference does this make?

Turnout. We need to max turnout in the Cities.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.barackobama.com/images/keating/pdf/Keating_ABC.pdf

I'm going to Kinko's sometime, going to print out a fuckload of these, staple them, and distribute them.

...

And yet you brag about how your area is so Pro Obama. What difference does this make?

Turnout. We need to max turnout in the Cities.

But you're going to easily win MN anyway so...