How well will Obama do in Texas?

[Jacobtm]

Texas will clearly go to John McCain, but Obama is practically guaranteed to improve on Kerry's numbers there. I'm curious about Texas because obviously it had been a strong Democratic state at one point, and really when you look at Texas, it hasn't been terribly bad for the Democrats when you compare it to their national numbers and also take into account that George Bush has been on the Republican ballot every election since 1980 save 1996. Also taking into account Perot's affect on '92 and '96, really Texas doesn't seem all that heavily Republican. True, a Democrat hasn't won Texas since '76, but Democrats also haven't gotten more than 50% of the Popular vote since that date either.


- 1976 and 1980, Carter's national and Texas margins were nearly identical.
- In '84, Mondale did 4 points worse in Texas than nationally.
- '88, Dukakis was only 2 points lower in Texas than his national numbers, and that was against Bush.
- '92 and '96 Clinton did 6 points worse in Texas than nationally. Apparently Texas actually preferred Dole to Bush, giving Dole 49% after only giving Bush 40.5%.
- '00 and '04, Gore and Kerry both did about 10 points worse in Texas than nationally.

So even with a native-son running on the Republican ticket, and even with a candidate as bad as John Kerry, the Democrats appear to have a floor of 10 points below their national level in Texas. I realize that since the '70's Texas has become much more Republican, and it's really not in play unless Obama begins to approach a 10 point national PV victory.

However, if he wins nationally by 5 points or so, which is what polls seem to indicate at this point, it seems he'd have little trouble getting around 45% in Texas, right?

[pragmatic liberal]

He may get within 10, especially if Hispanic and youth turnout is high.

If this thing *really* breaks towards Obama (i.e. Obama by 10 points -- something I think is very unlikely to happen), then he might have an outside chance of actually CARRYING Texas.

[Jacobtm]

He may get within 10, especially if Hispanic and youth turnout is high.

If this thing *really* breaks towards Obama (i.e. Obama by 10 points -- something I think is very unlikely to happen), then he might have an outside chance of actually CARRYING Texas.

That's sort of the point. Besides in '00 and '04, Democrats did poorly nationally and lost Texas not because it was particularly Republican, but because they didn't really preform well anywhere.

[perdedor]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wasnt Texas 20 points more than the national average in 2004? Where do you see that it was only 10? Obama is not carrying Texas, and this thread is ridiculous. You have a lead, but please don't hack it up.

[Keystone Phil]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

[Ronnie]

Wasnt Texas 20 points more than the national average in 2004? Where do you see that it was only 10? Obama is not carrying Texas, and this thread is ridiculous. You have a lead, but please don't hack it up.

He won't win Texas obviously, but don't forget that Bush had a homestate advantage in 2004.  If that advantage diminishes, and Obama wins by 7-8% nationally as I predict, he could pull the state to within 9 or 10.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

[Keystone Phil]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

[Verily]

Wasnt Texas 20 points more than the national average in 2004? Where do you see that it was only 10? Obama is not carrying Texas, and this thread is ridiculous. You have a lead, but please don't hack it up.

He won't win Texas obviously, but don't forget that Bush had a homestate advantage in 2004.  If that advantage diminishes, and Obama wins by 7-8% nationally as I predict, he could pull the state to within 9 or 10.

Certainly bear in mind Bush's home-state advantage. In particular it appears to have been amplified somewhat over what you might expect in the average state by Bush's popularity with Rio Grande Valley Hispanics.Obama's greatest improvement over Kerry will come down near the border, where places like Cameron County, which voted narrowly for Bush in 2004, may vote as much as 60+% for Obama. That's worth a pretty good swing. If the current nation results hold, McCain should win Texas by seven to ten points, no more than twelve and no less than five (and those last five would be extraordinarily difficult for any Democrat).

[Jacobtm]

Wasnt Texas 20 points more than the national average in 2004?

'04 National PV: 50.7/48.3
'04 Texas PV: 61.1/38.2

Kerry did 10 points worse in Texas than he did nationally. The margin was 23 points, but that's not what I was talking about.

Obama is not carrying Texas, and this thread is ridiculous. You have a lead, but please don't hack it up.

I began this thread by saying McCain will clearly win Texas, and ended it by asking if Obama could get about 45% of the vote in Texas. Did you even read the first post?

[memphis]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

Amazing how those who talk the most $hit have have the thinnest skins.

[Keystone Phil]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

Amazing how those who talk the most $hit have have the thinnest skins.

Thinnest skin? Really? Do you really think I would have survived on this forum after two horrible predictions (and catching hell for both of them for four years now) if I really had the thinnest skin?

[Tender Branson]

He will win Texas !

Prediction:

McCain - 55.8%
Obama - 43.4%

[memphis]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

You think McCain is going to win Pennsylvania. You have no room to talk about hackish posts.

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

Amazing how those who talk the most $hit have have the thinnest skins.

Thinnest skin? Really? Do you really think I would have survived on this forum after two horrible predictions (and catching hell for both of them for four years now) if I really had the thinnest skin?

I think you have a substantial record of having extremely thin skin. Not trying to get all personal and bitter about it though

[Stranger in a strange land]

Obama will get about 44%, which is about the best any Democrat can do. Remember, no Democrat has won a statewide race here since 1992.  He'll do better among Hispanics than Kerry or Gore did, black turnout will be higher, and McCain won't have the homestate advantage. Depending on how well Barr does, McCain might come in under 55%.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wasnt Texas 20 points more than the national average in 2004?

'04 National PV: 50.7/48.3
'04 Texas PV: 61.1/38.2

Kerry did 10 points worse in Texas than he did nationally. The margin was 23 points, but that's not what I was talking about.

Obama is not carrying Texas, and this thread is ridiculous. You have a lead, but please don't hack it up.

I began this thread by saying McCain will clearly win Texas, and ended it by asking if Obama could get about 45% of the vote in Texas. Did you even read the first post?

Get over yourself. I wasn't talking about you when I said someone mentioned winning Texas. Pragmatic Liberal, on the other hand, seems to think Texas will flip if Obama wins by 10.

[Kalimantan]

Thinnest skin? Really? Do you really think I would have survived on this forum after two horrible predictions (and catching hell for both of them for four years now) if I really had the thinnest skin?

however thick your skin is, you are remarkably reactionary.

[pragmatic liberal]

Wasnt Texas 20 points more than the national average in 2004?

'04 National PV: 50.7/48.3
'04 Texas PV: 61.1/38.2

Kerry did 10 points worse in Texas than he did nationally. The margin was 23 points, but that's not what I was talking about.

Obama is not carrying Texas, and this thread is ridiculous. You have a lead, but please don't hack it up.

I began this thread by saying McCain will clearly win Texas, and ended it by asking if Obama could get about 45% of the vote in Texas. Did you even read the first post?

Get over yourself. I wasn't talking about you when I said someone mentioned winning Texas. Pragmatic Liberal, on the other hand, seems to think Texas will flip if Obama wins by 10.

What is hackish about that? I said I highly doubt Obama will win nationally by 10 -- if he wins, it'll by somewhere from 4-7 points. And in Texas, I expect him to lose that state by about 8-9 points.

But I said that IF Obama does win nationally by 10, then an upset in Texas is plausible, though still unlikely. Just as if a Republican won nationally by 10, they'd have a real opportunity to win California.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm sorry but it's pretty hackish to say that CA is as blue as Texas is red. Get back to me when the Democrats have broken 60% in a Presidential race twice and won statewide elections for 16 straight years in California.

[perdedor]

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

McCain does not have a home state advantage in Texas, he is not going to do nearly as well with hispanics in the state as Bush did, nor is the political climate in his favor in the least (you're a delusional fool if you think that Texans are satisfied with the Republican establishment). Considering that McCain is on the verge of losing the popular vote by potentially as much as 8-10 points, I don't think a slim margin of victory in a state like Texas is out of the realm of possibility.

As far as PA is concerned, I would say it's a very likely Obama state. Can you show me anything that suggests that McCain is in a position to close an 8-point gap in such little time.

[JSojourner]

Just my gut -- McCain by 11% in Texas.

[Keystone Phil]

Thinnest skin? Really? Do you really think I would have survived on this forum after two horrible predictions (and catching hell for both of them for four years now) if I really had the thinnest skin?

however thick your skin is, you are remarkably reactionary.

In terms of being far right wing? Oh, I love this!

As I do with everyone else that labels me far right wing, I'm going to simple ask: on what issues am I extremely conservative?

I expect him to lose the state by 6-8 points.

Six points? Wow.

McCain does not have a home state advantage in Texas, he is not going to do nearly as well with hispanics in the state as Bush did, nor is the political climate in his favor in the least (you're a delusional fool if you think that Texans are satisfied with the Republican establishment). Considering that McCain is on the verge of losing the popular vote by potentially as much as 8-10 points, I don't think a slim margin of victory in a state like Texas is out of the realm of possibility.

As far as PA is concerned, I would say it's a very likely Obama state. Can you show me anything that suggests that McCain is in a position to close an 8-point gap in such little time.

LOL to everything in that post. Sorry. Obama's not reaching 55% nationally.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

IF McCain wins Texas, it will be by <5%

[daboese]

LOL

PA = At the very most, a lean or likely Obama state.

TX = Safe McCain state

It doesn't compare, child. Go to bed. Mommy and Daddy won't like you sneaking onto the Internets four hours past your bedtime.

Fivethirtyeight.com snapshot:
Texas: McCain +8
Pennsylvania: Obama +8.9

Prediction:
Texas: McCain +9.4
Pennsylvania: Obama +7