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  Talk Elections
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  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  MN: Survey USA: McCain 47, Obama 46
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Author Topic: MN: Survey USA: McCain 47, Obama 46  (Read 3429 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: October 02, 2008, 11:14:18 pm »

New Poll: Minnesota President by Survey USA on 2008-10-01

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

McCain 47%

Obama 46%

Other 4%

Not Sure 3%



...I wonder if this will get many posts...
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2008, 11:15:16 pm »

McCain is now winning Minnesota. What happened?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2008, 11:16:32 pm »

Whoa.  Seriously?
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2008, 11:18:40 pm »

Who is the ONLY pollster ever to have McCain up here?

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=27

Something else worth noting: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=24

SUSA may not be ARG, but if they're giving outliers, they're outliers.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2008, 11:19:26 pm »

lol
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TXsaff
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2008, 11:20:07 pm »

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King
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2008, 11:20:31 pm »

I'm tempted to say outlier but, with the exception of CNN/Time, this is within the margin of error of all the polls coming out of Minnesota for the past month.

St. Paul Convention bounce?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2008, 11:21:27 pm »

I'm tempted to say outlier but, with the exception of CNN/Time, this is within the margin of error of all the polls coming out of Minnesota for the past month.

St. Paul Convention bounce?

Rasmussen released a poll showing Obama up by 8 recently.
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Meeker
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2008, 11:21:48 pm »

Minnesota is closer than it used to be, but the internals on this one are wacky IMO.
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Aizen
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2008, 11:23:41 pm »

I'll admit Minnesota has tightened though I'm at a loss on why exactly. Rasmussen said Obama +8 last poll so I'll wait for another one from them.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2008, 11:27:02 pm »

I believe it about like I believe North Carolina, but this is still a fine excuse to go home and spend some sweet quality time with my wife.

I guess I have a stop or two to make on the way home.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2008, 11:31:01 pm »

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.  SUSA is getting more and more ridiculous.  They seem to fluctuate around a 10% accuracy mark.  I think the average of SUSA polls, since they include no weighting, might have validity. But any poll SUSA conducts that strongly looks like an outlier, I strongly feel, is almost no different than a Zogby Interactive.



I've been saying this for a bit as well.  SUSA *never* has a boring poll and that, considering their volume of polls, is suspicious since the more exciting pollsters get a lot more business.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2008, 11:32:01 pm »

I was just humoring Spade with my initial comment, I don't think McCain has a shot in hell to win Minnesota.
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giving birth to thunder
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2008, 11:36:14 pm »

Take a look at the companion Senate poll for a good laugh.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2008, 11:37:13 pm »

Obama is leading nationally by 5 or 6... and losing in Minnesota.


Right.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2008, 11:38:30 pm »

Take a look at the companion Senate poll for a good laugh.

For those who are too lazy, their senate poll has:
Coleman 43
Franken 33



Yeah.

yeah...

I hate joining a partisan gang bang on a poll showing not in my favor, but I've been bashing SUSA pro-Obama polls too.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2008, 11:40:17 pm »

lololol
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2008, 11:45:12 pm »

Where has the Democratic primary SurveyUSA gone?

Who is this imposter?
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2008, 11:46:28 pm »
« Edited: October 02, 2008, 11:48:20 pm by kevinatcausa »

The whole bunch of Senate polls from MN just confuse me.  If there's a third party candidate who has frequently been pulling double digits in some polls, how come several of the other polling firms only list Franken and Coleman as choices?  Do they really expect anything close to an accurate result?

The jump in Barkley's support isn't really much of a surprise though.  The poll was conducted in the middle of the bailout failure/resurrection, and I can see a good chunk of voters becoming disenchanted with both the Democrats and the Republicans from that. 
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2008, 11:49:51 pm »

Obama is leading nationally by 5 or 6... and losing in Minnesota.


Right.

no, but even if this poll is off 5 points, if McCain is running a couple of points better in MN (-4) than he is nationally (-6), then McCain has a shot to win the EV if he can pull to within a couple of points nationally.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2008, 11:57:32 pm »

Their MN polling is awful. Hopefully they will have a turnaround in their next polls or will look really foolish on Nov. 5.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2008, 12:06:17 am »

Who is the ONLY pollster ever to have McCain up here?

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=27

Something else worth noting: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=24

SUSA may not be ARG, but if they're giving outliers, they're outliers.

yeah SUSA's methodology is probably messed up.
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phk
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2008, 12:10:26 am »

Hmongs for McCain?
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auburntiger
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2008, 12:24:49 am »

If this poll is true, pigs will fly on Nov 4.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #24 on: October 03, 2008, 12:48:37 am »

Would be nice.  If true.
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