PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Obama leads by 7%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Why do we repeat this argument every time a Pennsylvania poll is released?

[Kalimantan]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

So you're saying that all these disgruntled Dem's around the Philly 'burbs are still telling pollsters they will vote Obama, but will press the McCain button on November 4th? Why would they do that?

Not really the suburbs but the city itself (where I am from). A lot of people have other "obligations." Their unions and such are pushing for Obama. They don't want to vote for a Republican. Please re-read my story above. The man is a leader in one of the unions. You don't think plenty of the rank and file members are feeling the same way? Plenty of local Democratic leaders have backed me up on this. It's made the news.

I fully understand your anecdote. Its a good anecdote, much better than"my mum aint voting McCain no more". Its interesting too, because if Obama does badly in Philly he's lost the state. However, even though he's doing badly in Philly, he's flying in the polls in PA as a whole. So, what do you think the reason is: 1. Is he doing very well elsewhere in PA, and if so where; or 2. are these people you're talking about lieing to pollsters about their voting intentions. Has to be one of the two, yes?

[Keystone Phil]

So, what do you think the reason is: 1. Is he doing very well elsewhere in PA, and if so where; or 2. are these people you're talking about lieing to pollsters about their voting intentions. Has to be one of the two, yes?

I think his "support" in the polls is just very soft. People are paranoid about admitting that they want the Republican in this race. I guarantee that the man I mentioned above would tell the pollster that he wants Obama. A lot of these voters that I'm talking about are union voters. They know that they must fall in line or risk some serious abuse. They can't always be as open with their support for the Republican when it comes to talking amongst their friends, fellow union members, etc.

[ucscgaldamez]

We'll see come election day who was right.

[Keystone Phil]

We'll see come election day who was right.

That's what I like to hear. 

Listen, you guys will have four whole years to beat up on me if I'm wrong. Believe me, I'm still getting shit about bad predictions from 2004 and 2006. Just give me the remaining five weeks. 

[ucscgaldamez]

Ohh, I'm looking at new voter registration for PA. Democrats are increasing their numbers, e.g. for the week of Sept. 21st., Dems registered 20,000~ voters and Republicans 9,000~ for a net gain of 11,000 votes in one week. I agree that Pennsylvania will be close because of seniors. Dems also have the advantage in voters changing their party affiliation. The week ending Sept. 21st, more voters changed their affiliation to Democrats than Republicans in the county of Lancaster!(A very conservative county). However, it is hard for me to believe that McCain will win Pennsylvania. If he does, that would be pretty much the end of this election, unless Obama can win a couple of red states. I just don't trust Phil to make an honest assessment of Pennsylvania.

[Keystone Phil]

I just don't trust Phil to make an honest assessment of Pennsylvania.

So...I'm just lying when I bring up the Dems for McCain?

[ucscgaldamez]

No, I don't think you are lying about your "anecdotes." However, it is hard to make an assessment based on what people tell you in the larger scheme of things. I havea lot of friends around me who are Republicans voting for Obama. But, I don't see Obama winning more than 20% of Republicans here in this state.  You just don't have a good track record. Sorry.

[Keystone Phil]

No, I don't think you are lying about your "anecdotes." However, it is hard to make an assessment based on what people tell you in the larger scheme of things. I havea lot of friends around me who are Republicans voting for Obama. But, I don't see Obama winning more than 20% of Republicans here in this state.  You just don't have a good track record. Sorry.

In my previous wrong predictions, I never had the argument of the Dem organization not backing their candidate like the way they refuse to strongly back Obama here. It's backed up by analysts that do see the "larger scheme of things" statewide.

[Kalimantan]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

[Lunar]

Ohh, I'm looking at new voter registration for PA. Democrats are increasing their numbers, e.g. for the week of Sept. 21st., Dems registered 20,000~ voters and Republicans 9,000~ for a net gain of 11,000 votes in one week.

100% turnout?

[ucscgaldamez]

A little heavy? lol

[Keystone Phil]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

Dude, I've given my analysis. Don't be insulting (because you have no real arguments) and compare what I say to what is said on FOX. As I said earlier, chill out for five more weeks. If you're so convinced that you're right and I'm wrong then you will have your chance to bust on me for four years. Until then, calm down. Thanks.

[ucscgaldamez]

I meant registration voters. Not all will show up, but why would you register towards the end of the registration period and not vote? Doesn't make much sense. I think I would be more likely to vote.

[ucscgaldamez]

Yea, I don't think we need to get on Phil's case too much. There will be plenty of time for that.

[Lunar]

In my previous wrong predictions, I never had the argument of the Dem organization not backing their candidate like the way they refuse to strongly back Obama here.

Well, of course every wrong/partisan prediction isn't the exact same.  I mean, it'd be absurd to claim that Bob Casey had a problem with white, blue-collar workers.  So, the differences ever year between wrong predictions don't' really mean anything

[Kalimantan]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

Dude, I've given my analysis. Don't be insulting (because you have no real arguments) and compare what I say to what is said on FOX. As I said earlier, chill out for five more weeks. If you're so convinced that you're right and I'm wrong then you will have your chance to bust on me for four years. Until then, calm down. Thanks.

Hey, I'm not insulting you, that video's funny. Be flattered, I saw it and thought of you! Lighten up and relax a bit.

[Keystone Phil]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

Dude, I've given my analysis. Don't be insulting (because you have no real arguments) and compare what I say to what is said on FOX. As I said earlier, chill out for five more weeks. If you're so convinced that you're right and I'm wrong then you will have your chance to bust on me for four years. Until then, calm down. Thanks.

Hey, I'm not insulting you, that video's funny. Be flattered, I saw it and thought of you! Lighten up and relax a bit.

I took it as if you were saying that that's the type of evidence that I provide and try to pass off as the truth.

[Iosif]

Jesus H. Christ.

A teenager with a past of hilariously inaccurate predictions spouts his mouth off about McCain taking PA - contrary to a score of polls - on the back of a half dozen alleged democrats who claim they're voting for McCain but are too scared to tell that to a pollster and then gets the hump when people call him on it.

Seriously, why even bother? He's obviously devoid of reality.

[Keystone Phil]

Jesus H. Christ.

A teenager with a past of hilariously inaccurate predictions spouts his mouth off about McCain taking PA - contrary to a score of polls - on the back of a half dozen alleged democrats who claim they're voting for McCain but are too scared to tell that to a pollster and then gets the hump when people call him on it.

Seriously, why even bother? He's obviously devoid of reality.

Alleged Democrats? Really? These people - Democratic committeepeople, activists, ward leaders - aren't Democrats?

I'm devoid of reality? Yeah? I guess that explains my numerous other correct predictions that never get any play here. It's always more fun in a left wing echo chamber to beat up on the bad predictions of some conservative Republican. "Hilariously inaccurate predictions" = Two bad predictions. I'm sure we can find two bad predictions from a few people.

And just for accuracy's sake, I'm not a teenager.

Finally, you add nothing to this forum. You come here, spew some hack statements and get nasty with those you don't like. You're a worthless troll. Don't like what I say? Fine. Do me a favor and be civil about it.

[Lunar]

Iosif, don't be so aggressively mean.

Phil, I think the consensus is that you make fine predictions for everywhere but PA, where your bias causes your analysis to root for the hometeam

[Keystone Phil]

Iosif, don't be so aggressively mean.

Phil, I think the consensus is that you make fine predictions for everywhere but PA, where your bias causes your analysis to root for the hometeam

Were my two bad predictions based a great deal on optimism? Yes. However, in both of those races, I never argued that the Democratic nominees were struggling among the traditional white, Catholic, union member base (Casey certainly wasn't going to and Schwartz wasn't struggling to the extent that Obama is). It's different this time but whatever.

[Lunar]

I didn't say your argument was the same every time

Like I said, it's not like Bob Casey had a blue-collar, white worker problem for you to run with, haha.  I make ridiculous predictions too (Clark would be the VP, Obama will win NC.)

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't say your argument was the same every time

Like I said, it's not like Bob Casey had a blue-collar, white worker problem for you to run with, haha. 

And I'm saying that's a major game changer and why my analysis isn't as flawed this time around.