FL-13/FL-18: R2000/DailyKos say Republicans have lead...

[Sam Spade]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/28/141311/924

FL-13:
Buchanan 43%
Jennings 31%

GE/FL-13
McCain 51%
Obama 38%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/28/142521/109

FL-18:
Ros-Lehtinen 53%
Taddeo 36%

GE/FL-18:
McCain 52%
Obama 37%

[minionofmidas]

GE/FL-13
McCain 51%
Obama 38%

Correct me if I'm sadly mistaken, but this looks rather too Rep-friendly.

[Brittain33]

GE/FL-13
McCain 51%
Obama 38%

Correct me if I'm sadly mistaken, but this looks rather too Rep-friendly.

If Obama is underperforming among a) old people and b) Ohio and Michigan white people, it would show up in this district. In addition, it's not suffereing as badly as FL-14 of FL-16 from the housing bust.

[Sam Spade]

GE/FL-13
McCain 51%
Obama 38%

Correct me if I'm sadly mistaken, but this looks rather too Rep-friendly.

That's about right at 2004 numbers.  FL-18 is the one that looks too Republican to me.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Obama is close to tied in Florida, he's not underperforming as badly among the demographics people expect him to do as expected.

My theory on it is that Obama is doing better in the traditionally Republican parts of central Florida (by traditionally Republican though I mean only around 54% Republican but really hard to swing.) than either Gore or Kerry, probably thanks to Florida becoming an economic disaster after the housing crunch and the yuppies there now realizing they aren't part of the super-rich, nor will they ever be so. And recent events don't help McCain.