A Little Perspective, Please.....

[mddem2004]

"The Report of my Death was an Exageration...."
Mark Twain

In reading many of the posts here at this site, some may want to heed the above quote.

Yes Bush is currently ahead.....Yes Kerry has been knocked off message by the Swifties followed by the RNC.
Yet, some may want to take a closer look at the following graph........



This shows both the maximum highs and lows of all polls, as well as the median of all polls. We find the following:

- Kerry has peaked with an ave. of 50% twice - the 1st week of July after the Edwards announcement, and the 1st week of August right after the DNC. Bush has just past his first 50% peak right after the RNC.

- Both candidates had pre-convention "buildups" to their peaks:
Kerry from an ave of 47% to 50% - 3% jump in ave.
Bush from an  ave of 46% to 50% - 4% jump in ave.

- Kerry has had 2 low points
1) 1st week of April during the initial Bush spring media blitz @ 44%
2) The last week of August or during the RNC @ 44.5%.

Bush has been at 43.5% twice
1) 1st week of May
2) 1st week of June
and had a 5 week stint at about 45.5% in July to August.

Until now Bush has only averaged ahead in this race twice:
1) In April until Abu Ghareb broke into the headlines, and
2) Briefly after Reagan passed in June.  

NOW.........
Before we write Kerry's obit or send out invitations to Bush's inaugeral........

1)Last weeks polling averaged a drop of 2.4% from Bush's peak of 50%.
2) Kerry's average picked up 1% from his prior low.
3) The candidates are sitting, at an average in the polls,
at 47.6 to 45.4% - or a difference of 2.2%.

Now, the glee being currently expressed from my friends across the aisle is understandable, but, much of Bush's large 'Lead' were derived from some pretty odd polls (This weeks Newsweek has Bush ahead by 6% yet trailing in Independents by 6%!!!!!!)

Until these candidates averages begin to 'flatline' showing a clear and consistant frontrunner whose average is outside the margin of error......prudence would dictate a little caution in claiming.......prematurly......a victory.

[zachman]

Also a convention bounce (if that was what it was) should also negate itself over time.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I do believe you are ignoring what has just transpired over the last few days.

The forgery papers have just made Bush immune to any attack and it will be extremely difficult for Kerry to get his message out.

The next big headline will read:  "Who fed CBS the forgeries?"  And everyone, fair or unfair, will be glancing Kerry's way.

[Defarge]

I do believe you are ignoring what has just transpired over the last few days.

The forgery papers have just made Bush immune to any attack and it will be extremely difficult for Kerry to get his message out.

The next big headline will read:  "Who fed CBS the forgeries?"  And everyone, fair or unfair, will be glancing Kerry's way.

This will have generally the same effect as the Swift Boat Ads, except to a lesser degree.  Just as the charges against Kerry were entirely false, so are these charges against Bush probably (I except the experts to come to a final conclusion within the week) false.  Just as the Bush campaign was involved in the Swift Boat Ads, so too will the Kerry campaign probably be somehow involved in this mess.

I think you're overstating this jmfcst.  Baseless accusations are very hard to refute with the American public, quite unfortunately

But as I've said, this election must get back to the issues.  Now.  

[mddem2004]

I do believe you are ignoring what has just transpired over the last few days.

The forgery papers have just made Bush immune to any attack and it will be extremely difficult for Kerry to get his message out.

The next big headline will read:  "Who fed CBS the forgeries?"  And everyone, fair or unfair, will be glancing Kerry's way.

Could be......

But the Headline that voters will care about will be "September on track to be second costliest month in Iraq"......

[The Vorlon]

"The Report of my Death was an Exageration...."
Mark Twain

In reading many of the posts here at this site, some may want to heed the above quote.

Yes Bush is currently ahead.....Yes Kerry has been knocked off message by the Swifties followed by the RNC.
Yet, some may want to take a closer look at the following graph........


This shows both the maximum highs and lows of all polls, as well as the median of all polls. We find the following:

- Kerry has peaked with an ave. of 50% twice - the 1st week of July after the Edwards announcement, and the 1st week of August right after the DNC. Bush has just past his first 50% peak right after the RNC.

- Both candidates had pre-convention "buildups" to their peaks:
Kerry from an ave of 47% to 50% - 3% jump in ave.
Bush from an  ave of 46% to 50% - 4% jump in ave.

- Kerry has had 2 low points
1) 1st week of April during the initial Bush spring media blitz @ 44%
2) The last week of August or during the RNC @ 44.5%.

Bush has been at 43.5% twice
1) 1st week of May
2) 1st week of June
and had a 5 week stint at about 45.5% in July to August.

Until now Bush has only averaged ahead in this race twice:
1) In April until Abu Ghareb broke into the headlines, and
2) Briefly after Reagan passed in June.  

NOW.........
Before we write Kerry's obit or send out invitations to Bush's inaugeral........

1)Last weeks polling averaged a drop of 2.4% from Bush's peak of 50%.
2) Kerry's average picked up 1% from his prior low.
3) The candidates are sitting, at an average in the polls,
at 47.6 to 45.4% - or a difference of 2.2%.

Now, the glee being currently expressed from my friends across the aisle is understandable, but, much of Bush's large 'Lead' were derived from some pretty odd polls (This weeks Newsweek has Bush ahead by 6% yet trailing in Independents by 6%!!!!!!)

Until these candidates averages begin to 'flatline' showing a clear and consistant frontrunner whose average is outside the margin of error......prudence would dictate a little caution in claiming.......prematurly......a victory.

Good post

As I have said, Bush is up a field goal and has the ball in the middle of the 3rd quarter.

A lot of football left to play.

BTW, can you do re-do that graph of yours with a 10 poll moving average..?

WE have about 5 polls that show huge swings, and 5 or so that are semi-stable, so a lot of the "noise" in your graph is just that - noise that happens when the batch of 5 crazy polls (they all come out together it seems) is followed by the 5 or so same poll.

You basic premise of your graph is of course true, I just think a 10 poll moving average woiuld smooth it out even a bit more.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This will have generally the same effect as the Swift Boat Ads, except to a lesser degree.  Just as the charges against Kerry were entirely false, so are these charges against Bush probably (I except the experts to come to a final conclusion within the week) false.  Just as the Bush campaign was involved in the Swift Boat Ads, so too will the Kerry campaign probably be somehow involved in this mess.

I think you're overstating this jmfcst.  Baseless accusations are very hard to refute with the American public, quite unfortunately

But there is a huge difference:  The Swift Boat ads questioning Kerry's service are SUBJECTIVE (a matter of personal opinion), but a provable forgery is OBJECTIVE (clear and irrefutable evidence).

That is why the Swift Boat ad reciting Kerry's Senate testimony was extremely more damaging to Kerry than the ads questioning his metals, for Kerry's Senate testimony is a matter of the record (it is objective, not subjective).

And the objections to the authenticity of these documents are easily grasped by a majority of likely voters since most of them are old enough to have used BOTH a typewriter and Microsoft Word.

It will only be a couple of days before news networks will be demonstrating how easy it is to perfectly reproduce these documents in Word.  And then they'll cut to an interview with a document expert showing how incredibly hard it would have been to create these documents in the early 70's.

Most voters not only can understand this issue, they have direct experience with the issue since most voters have typed on a computer and on a typewriter.

Heck, I am only 37 and I used an IBM Selectric two whole semesters in my High School typing class my senior year.

And a lot of women voters, who make up the majority of secretaries, are going to completely understand the issues surrounding these forgeries.

[mddem2004]

Oh Vorlorn.....If only I was that smart!

I got that from:
http://www.mydd.com

[The Vorlon]

Oh Vorlorn.....If only I was that smart!

I got that from:
http://www.mydd.com

Ok...

Here is a 10 poll rolling average...

This is just a straight "cut and paste" from the RealClearPolitics page



The ten poll average really smooths things out, but shows more or less the same thing the 5 poll average shows.

What I find amazing is how stable Bush was from February till the end of August - he was at 44 to 45% give or take a bit of noise for 6 months.

1) From March to the end of June, basically nothing happened, it was give or take a blip or two, tied.

2) In Early July Kerry got a decent bump from Edwards, but that bump faded pretty quick.

3) In Late July Kerry basically got the "Edwards Bump" a second time in the buildup to, and during his convention.

4)  August was an unusual month - Kerry clearly went down - but Bush did not go up (sharp rise in the undecided at Kerry's expense)

5)  From September onward Kerry had continued to drop, but this time Bush is picking up support instead of the  former Kerry supported going to undecided.

[mddem2004]

Oh Vorlorn.....If only I was that smart!

I got that from:
http://www.mydd.com

Ok...

Here is a 10 poll rolling average...

The ten poll average really smooths things out, but shows more or less the same thing the 5 poll average shows.

Thanks......looks good......I also agree with your football analogy.....Kerry needs a turn-over!!!

[Defarge]

Vorlon, did you accidentally switch the labelling, designating the blue dots Kerry and the pink dots Bush?  Or is Kerry really ahead by 8 right now?  

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, did you accidentally switch the labelling, designating the blue dots Kerry and the pink dots Bush?  Or is Kerry really ahead by 8 right now?  

Duooh !



Corrected Now & Thanks

[The Vorlon]

Thanks......looks good......I also agree with your football analogy.....Kerry needs a turn-over!!!

Kerry needs to change the topic.

What are the two big topics today, 7 weeks out..?

Topic 1 - Anniversary of the 9-11 attack. (Terrorism)

Topic 2 - Did Dan Rather use forgeries to do a partisan hatchet for the DNC job on Bush?

If the election stays on these two topics, the game is all over.

I hate to say it, but Karl Rove is running circles around whichever collection of village idiots is currently running the Kerry Kar Krash.

[mddem2004]

Thanks......looks good......I also agree with your football analogy.....Kerry needs a turn-over!!!

Kerry needs to change the topic.

What are the two big topics today, 7 weeks out..?

Topic 1 - Anniversary of the 9-11 attack. (Terrorism)

Topic 2 - Did Dan Rather use forgeries to do a partisan hatchet for the DNC job on Bush?

If the election stays on these two topics, the game is all over.

I hate to say it, but Karl Rove is running circles around whichever collection of village idiots is currently running the Kerry Kar Krash.

No argument there......

[The Vorlon]

Thanks......looks good......I also agree with your football analogy.....Kerry needs a turn-over!!!

Kerry needs to change the topic.

What are the two big topics today, 7 weeks out..?

Topic 1 - Anniversary of the 9-11 attack. (Terrorism)

Topic 2 - Did Dan Rather use forgeries to do a partisan hatchet for the DNC job on Bush?

If the election stays on these two topics, the game is all over.

I hate to say it, but Karl Rove is running circles around whichever collection of village idiots is currently running the Kerry Kar Krash.

No argument there......

On the other hand...

If Dan Rather did get run out of town after being tarred and feathered in disgrace...

That wouldn't bother me one bit... he  IS   a partisan Democrat hack pretending to be a reporter.

He's not the only one, but easily the most arrogrant.