French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008

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For reference, here is the map of the 2005 race (based on the spreadsheet at Hashemite's link):



53.63% François Hollande
23.54% New Socialist Party (Julien Dray, Benoît Hamon, Arnaud Montebourg, and Vincent Peillon)
21.17% Laurent Fabius
1.02% Utopia (Franck Pupunat)
0.64% Jean-Marie Bockel

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There are more maps of 2005 on my site. I think I posted some of them here too on the defunct French elections maps thread.

http://www.freewebs.com/franceelgeo/2005.htm

Thanks for the maps. I do remember you posting maps for the 2006 primary, but I never saw the 2005 maps.

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Delanoë leads in endorsements.

Deputies, senators, and eurodeputies: Delanoë 101, Aubry 94, Royal 48, Hamon 17, Ecologists 5
Regional presidents: Aubry 8, Delanoë 5, Royal 2
Mayors of cities with over 100 000 inhabitants: Delanoë 17, Aubry 5, Royal 5
Section mayors of Paris, Marseille, and Lyon: Delanoë 9, Aubry 2, Royal 2
Departmental presidents: Delanoë 17, Aubry 14, Royal 7, Ecologists 1
Federation leaders: Delanoë 33, Royal 28, Aubry 26, Hamon 3

Total: Delanoë 182, Aubry 149, Royal 92, Hamon 20, Ecologists 6

Lionel Jospin supports Delanoë, and Edith Cresson supports Royal.

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IFOP poll for First Secretary.

Delanoë 44%
Aubry 22%
Royal 18%
Hamon 6%

lol.

That's among members of all parties. Among "Socialist sympathizers," the result is tighter, though still a large lead for Delanoë:

Delanoë 43%
Aubry 28%
Royal 24%
Hamon 2%

The poll was taken last weekend, September 25-26.

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New Ifop poll of 579 "Socialist sympathizers" (October 2-3):

Delanoë 41% (-2)
Royal 30% (+6)
Aubry 23% (-5)
Hamon 1% (-1)

Ifop approval ratings, 957 adults, regardless of political affiliation (October 2-3):
Delanoë 73% (+1)
Royal 38% (-5)

Delanoë currently has the highest approval ratings in France; he is tied with Kouchner (up three points) and Strauss-Kahn (up seven points). Royal is below Lang (67%, -3) Besancenot (56%, -5) Fillon (54%, -2) and Sarkozy (44%, +1).

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Results so far, with 35 of 102 federations having voted:

Royal 31%
Delanoë 26%
Aubry 20%
Hamon 20%

Turnout is at about 60%. Hamon is doing surprisingly well.

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Turnout was at about 60%.

The remaining 67 federations will vote tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday.

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He's a MEP from the left wing of the Socialist Party.

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Anybody know which feds voted today?

I have no idea. Ouest-France has the results for departments in the west.

Basse Normandie: Hamon leads in Calvados and Manche; Royal leaders in Orne.

Bretagne: Delanoë leads in all four departments

Pays de la Loire: Delanoë leads in Loire-Atlantique, Maine-et-Loire, and Sarthe; Royal leads in Mayenne and Vendée

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I can't find a list of which departments voted today (maybe they all did?), but Nouvel Obs has some results (and the article doesn't seem to imply that more federations have yet to vote):

Total: Royal 29%, Aubry 25%, Delanoë 25%, Hamon 19%
55% turnout

Paris: Delanoë 37 to 38%, Royal 25 to 26%
Lille: Aubry around 75%
Bouches-du-Rhône: Royal 71%
Hérault: Royal 54%

A reminder that this is the vote on motions, and that the election of the first secretary will be on November 20.

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This article seems to indicate that all departments voted today: all 102 federations must report their results by 1:00 AM.

The article is unclear whether or not the N-PdC voted today or not.

I'm guessing they did, but their results were processed later. That would explain why the Nouvel Obs had Aubry surge from 20% two hours ago to 25%.

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Royal's base is the south and Poitou Charentes, as expected.
Aubry's base is Fabius's from 2006, plus Nord Pas-de-Calais.
Delanoë's base is Strauss-Kahn's, plus the northwest and the area around Corrèze (Ayrault and Hollande's areas). He severely underperformed in Ile de France.
Hamon did very well in the diagonale du vide; every department he won was there, except for Manche.

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Royal has announced her candidacy (well, she had it announced for her), and Delanoë will not support Aubry or Hamon. If Royal is elected, she intends to create a new position, deputy first secretary, and appoint Vincent Peillon.

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The convention began yesterday. Delanoë claimed last night that he was ready to withdraw his candidacy if necessary.

Today, Ayrault called on the four candidates to back down and support a compromise candidate (he recommended Moscovici). Collomb called on Moscovici to abandon Delanoë and join Royal's camp, and offered him the post of third-in-command (after Royal and Peillon). Moscovici turned down the offer.

Hamon announced his candidacy through Henri Emmanuelli, and rejected any compromise with Delanoë or Aubry. He has the support of Utopia.

Delanoë called for the creation of an anti-Royal majority with Aubry and Hamon, as did an Aubry supporter. He bashed Royal's plans to ally the PS with the MoDem.

Royal spoke and was jeered and whistled, but she didn't back down from her plans to ally with the MoDem.

Aubry reached out to Delanoë. When she started speaking, the crowd cheered her. Fabius then echoed Delanoë's criticism of Royal's alliance with Bayrou.

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The convention is over, and Delanoë is not running. The three candidates for first secretary are Royal, Aubry, and Hamon. Hollande and Delanoë did not make any endorsements.

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I'm putting my money on Aubry.

So am I. I don't see how Royal can win at this point.

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But Le Monde disagrees:

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The first round was held today. The full results aren't available yet (they should be within two hours). Ouest France has some preliminary results from Orne:

Royal 56.99%
Aubry 24.83%
Hamon 17.48%

That leaves 0.70% unaccounted for

Royal's motion had won 51.28% on November 6.


Edit: France Info says turnout went up ten points as compared to November 6. They added that Royal seems to have surged in rural areas and is likely to win a plurality tonight, and that Aubry and Hamon were fighting for second place.

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You scared me for a moment. I thought the drug-addict had won.

Sorry about that


France Info had some more results departmental results.

Haute-Garonne: Royal is ahead.

Rhône: Royal 50.65%, Aubry 28.57%, Hamon 20.78%
Royal was strong in Lyon, of course, but Hamon did very well in the Lyon suburbs.


Edit: More results from Ouest-France.

Loire-Atlantique: Royal 45.35%, Aubry 26.95%, Hamon 25% (that leaves 2.7% unaccounted for), with 49 of 55 sections reporting

Mayenne: Royal 72%, Hamon 14.48%, Aubry 13.65%

Morbihan: Royal 52.68%, Hamon 25.63%, Aubry 21.69%

Sarthe: Royal 41%, Aubry 39%, Hamon 21%; turnout 75%

Vendée: Royal is ahead.


Edit: France Info says Royal won 37% in Haute-Garonne.

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Preliminary national results according to François Rebsamen

Royal 43%
Aubry 32%
Hamon 24%

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Semi-official national results
Royal 42.4%
Aubry 34.7%
Hamon 24%

Hamon will likely speak tonight, Royal will speak tomorrow at noon, and Aubry will not speak until after the runoff.



Results in the West, according to Ouest France.


Basse Normandie

Calvados
Aubry 34%
Royal 34%
Hamon 32%

Manche (turnout 63.46%)
Hamon 44.49%
Royal 28.41%
Aubry 25.79%

Orne (turnout 59%)
Royal 51.28%
Aubry 24.83%
Hamon 17.48%


Bretagne

Côte-d'Armor
Royal 43%
Aubry 35%
Hamon 22%

Finistère (turnout 69.40%, was 68% on November 6)
Royal 39.52%
Aubry 35.44%
Hamon 25.20%

Ille-et-Vilaine
Royal 41%
Aubry 31%
Hamon 28%

Morbihan
Royal 52.68%
Hamon 25.63%
Aubry 21.69%


Pays de la Loire

Loire-Atlantique
Royal 43.11%
Hamon 28.91% (58.9% in Saint-Nazaire)
Aubry 27.98%

Maine-et-Loire (turnout 52.64%) results by section
Royal 43.04%
Aubry 37.16%
Hamon 19.80%

Mayenne
Royal 72%
Hamon 14.48%
Aubry 13.65%

Sarthe (turnout 75%)
Royal 41%
Aubry 39%
Hamon 21%

Vendée
Royal 56%

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Hamon has endorsed Aubry.

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If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

I would guess he meant Saint-Nazaire.

For reference, the results from Saint-Nazaire were:
Hamon 58.9%
Royal 21.2%
Aubry 19.9%

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Turnout was up to 59.9%, from 56.6% on November 6. 137 141 votes were cast, including nearly 2 500 abstentions. Martinique and Guadeloupe have not yet reported results.

Jospin announced that he voted for Aubry.

If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.

Yes. It was heavily bombarded during World War II, and they didn't do a great job at rebuilding it.

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The polls have closed, turnout seems to have decreased slightly as compared to yesterday. The results should come in faster than last night, and we may have them by midnight.

Turnout was high among Hamon voters, and they seem to have voted solidly for Aubry, but Royal did well among voters who did not turn out yesterday.

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It would appear that Royal has won, according to some PS leaders.


Edit: Rebsamen says it's a large Royal victory; the Aubry campaign says it's a virtual tie.