French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008

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80%? ROFL.

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They just try to drop the expectation. If Aubry wins, it will be seen as a complete reversal of the situation.
Sure, it is not very subtle...

Atleast say 50% or maximum 60% if you want to look subtle and believable. But 80%? ROFL. Everybody knows that Royal won't win 80%.

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Delanoë has endorsed Aubry

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One word sums it all up.

Lolz

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You scared me for a moment. I thought the drug-addict had won.

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This isn't looking good for sanity.

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I'm seeing 47-27-27 for the drug addict.

Also, the crazy lady would have won over 50% in Paris-18... Rings a bell?

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If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

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If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.

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If Hamon won 59% in Hell on Earth and did well in the Lyon 'burbs (Venissieux presumably), he seems to be popular in industrial and 'popular' areas.

Which area is "Hell on Earth" [qm]

Saint-Nazaire, I would guess.

Oh, the shipbuilding town.

A very ugly city. Very ugly.

There is no pattern here. He didn't very well in Brest or Le Havre.

Where do you get the results from Brest and Le Havre?

It would appear that Royal has won, according to some PS leaders.


Edit: Rebsamen says it's a large Royal victory; the Aubry campaign says it's a virtual tie.

If Royal wins, the PS wins the stupidity award.

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Any place with the results by fed from last night?

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No, I was talking about all 102 feds.

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Can someone please explain to me why people seem to loathe Royale so much?

Is it because she lost in 2005?

Royal didn't lose anything in 2005.

The establishment hates Royal because she doesn't like them and she represents the rebel within the party that dislikes the party "elephants" (DSK, Fabius, Lang, Jospin and so forth).

Aubry's campaign has just claimed victory.

Something between 50,2 and 50,4.
They seem to have only a 1000-vote lead, but it's without Nord (of course an Aubry stronghold) and Guadeloupe.

Be careful: it's Claude Bartolone, Fabius' lieutenant and well known for its spinning practices...

But a good sign is that Royal's aides are quiet now.... Rebsamen and Peillon).

Wow. This sounds like a close race for sure.

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Manuel Valls was one of the only sane Socialists left. I see he's joined the crazy loonies now.

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Recount!

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Royal wants to fight ("je ne vais pas me laisser faire"). She wants a new ballott on Thursday.

Ah, "let's keep voting until you give the right answer".

Um... THat didnt really tell me, an independent observer from a non-french country with limited knowledge of French Politics why they don't like her.


Is it because she lost in the presidential election?

I said she's the anti-establishment rebel.

Then you just have to listen to her speak, and it's obvious she's not entirely stable.

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Down to 18 votes without New Caledonia.

Royal could still win this thing with New Caledonia, depending on the numbers there. This makes Florida 2000 look like a landslide.

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Down to 18 votes without New Caledonia.

Royal could still win this thing with New Caledonia, depending on the numbers there. This makes Florida 2000 look like a landslide.

How many PS members (or people who can vote due to whatever affliation system they use these days) actually like in New Caledonia [qm].

There are 49 Socialists, but it's highly unlikely all 49 turned out.

I'm not sure if anyone voted in New Caledonia in the motions vote.

Edit: Can't find any records of a motions vote in New Caledonia anywhere.

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8 votes lead now for Aubry, it seems, if New Caledonia is counted.

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They messed up in the Blaye section of Gironde:

Their new results:

Aubry +11
Royal -41

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There are (strong) examples of cheating on both sides.

In the 13, some Delanoe-Aubry supporters reported being intimidated by the Guerini federation.

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Anyway, the fight will be long and bitter.
But the PS isn't likely to explode, because, the one who leaves loses public financing, based on parties having had candidates in the last "législatives" (parlementarian elections).

I doubt it will implode, too. Mainly for the same reasons and they're not entirely stupid.

Hashemite, I've just sent you the pdf file of 2nd turn results by federations.
You can find it on the PS site now and on lefigaro.fr.
Impossible to get first round results....

Thanks, but I made that map yesterday.

So,what's Aubry's lead at the moment?

I lost track with all the gnomes admitting their mistakes and the whole thing of counting New Caledonia/Polynesia/FFE or not.

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Couldn't they just have a revote with just Royale and Aubry?

To settle things once and for all?

Cheating and dirty tricks wouldn't disappear. And around 70% of PS supporters are opposed to a re-vote.

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Would someone care to explain the Lille situation to me?

The Lille-Centre PS section reported 110 votes for Aubry and 25ish (IIRC) for Royal. When the Nord fed sent the results to Paris, it had 130 votes for Aubry and the same amount as before for Royal.

Also, Aubry is Mayor of Lille and has lots of sway over the Nord fed.

Couldn't they just have a revote with just Royale and Aubry?

To settle things once and for all?

Cheating and dirty tricks wouldn't disappear. And around 70% of PS supporters are opposed to a re-vote.

Sure, but be careful about this poll. It's a poll from OpinionWay, which polls through the web and which makes polls only for Le Figaro...
Anyway, this is 70% (63% in fact and 69% of French people as a whole, IIRC) of supporters, not of PS members (these would be too difficult to poll, of course).

I think it's just that people are now fed up with the Socialist party and its quarrels and internal votes (3 in 2 weeks, plus the Congress itself).... while the economic crisis is here.

Ah, OpinionWay. The news didn't mention the pollster last night.