French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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May 07, 2021, 08:42:36 AM

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  French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008
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Author Topic: French Socialist Party leadership race, 2008  (Read 24760 times)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #125 on: November 22, 2008, 05:22:39 PM »

Down to 18 votes without New Caledonia.

Royal could still win this thing with New Caledonia, depending on the numbers there. This makes Florida 2000 look like a landslide.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #126 on: November 22, 2008, 05:26:06 PM »

Down to 18 votes without New Caledonia.

Royal could still win this thing with New Caledonia, depending on the numbers there. This makes Florida 2000 look like a landslide.

How many PS members (or people who can vote due to whatever affliation system they use these days) actually like in New Caledonia [qm].
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Hashemite
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« Reply #127 on: November 22, 2008, 05:30:36 PM »

Down to 18 votes without New Caledonia.

Royal could still win this thing with New Caledonia, depending on the numbers there. This makes Florida 2000 look like a landslide.

How many PS members (or people who can vote due to whatever affliation system they use these days) actually like in New Caledonia [qm].

There are 49 Socialists, but it's highly unlikely all 49 turned out.

I'm not sure if anyone voted in New Caledonia in the motions vote.

Edit: Can't find any records of a motions vote in New Caledonia anywhere.
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Math
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« Reply #128 on: November 22, 2008, 06:14:42 PM »

According to rue89.com, the results in New Caledonia are 13 votes for Royal, 3 votes for Aubry.

 
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Hashemite
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« Reply #129 on: November 22, 2008, 06:18:21 PM »

8 votes lead now for Aubry, it seems, if New Caledonia is counted.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #130 on: November 23, 2008, 07:11:34 AM »

They messed up in the Blaye section of Gironde:

Their new results:

Aubry +11
Royal -41
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big bad fab
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« Reply #131 on: November 23, 2008, 12:03:02 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2008, 12:07:37 PM by big bad fab »

For those among you who can read the French language, this from Associated Press:

Les "royalistes", qui ont les premiers dénoncé des "tricheries", ont annoncé par la voix de Manuel Valls qu'ils disposaient de "dizaines d'exemples" d'irrégularités en leur défaveur et qu'ils porteraient l'affaire en justice.

Une première plainte devrait porter sur un "faux en écriture" qui aurait été commis dans une section lilloise, où "20 voix se sont portées en faveur de Martine Aubry par un faux en écriture", estime le député-maire d'Evry Manuel Valls. Claude Bartolone, député de Seine-Saint-Denis, proche de la maire de Lille, a répondu à l'Associated Press que l'erreur avait été faite "à l'annonce du résultat, mais (que) le procès-verbal est bon".

Les "royalistes" dénoncent aussi, par un communiqué du président de l'association Désirs d'avenir Jean-Pierre Mignard "une inversion des voix dans une section de Moselle", une erreur qui réduirait l'écart de 24 voix en faveur de Ségolène Royal.

Les résultats de la candidate à la dernière présidentielle ont également été minorés de six voix dans la section alsacienne de Kingersheim, selon le maire socialiste de la commune du Haut-Rhin: "j'ose espérer que c'est une erreur", a déclaré Joseph Spiegel, interrogé par l'Associated Press.

Dans le camp de Ségolène Royal, on compte aussi sur les résultats de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (13 voix pour Royal, 3 pour Aubry), de Wallis-et-Futuna et de la Polynésie française, dont les votes n'ont pas été inclus dans la "totalisation" rendue publique par le PS. Le vote des Français de l'étranger, très favorables à Mme Royal n'a pas été non plus complètement pris en compte.

Mais des erreurs bien plus importantes sont relevées par les "aubrystes". En Gironde, les résultats de la section de Blaye ont été mal transmis à la fédération: Claude Bartolone assure qu'il faut là ajouter 11 voix à Martine Aubry et en retrancher 41 à Ségolène Royal.

Claude Bartolone dénonce aussi la non prise en compte du vote dans la section de Maussane, dans les Bouches-du-Rhône, dissoute par la fédération après le vote sur les motions. Là, Martine Aubry aurait obtenu 84 voix contre 2 à Ségolène Royal, un résultat ignoré par la fédération départementale, largement acquise à la présidente de Poitou-Charente.

Surtout, les "aubrystes" dénoncent des "fraudes évidentes" et massives en Guadeloupe où la participation a bondi de 17% entre jeudi et vendredi. Claude Bartolone a affirmé à l'Associated Press que des partisans de Ségolène Royal, une fois les résultats métropolitains connus, avaient téléphoné aux Antilles pour inciter à gonfler le score de Royal.

D'après Axel Urgin, coordinateur de la campagne de Martine Aubry pour l'Outre-mer, 500 des 1.536 voix récoltées par Ségolène Royal à la Guadeloupe devraient être annulées.

Il dénonce, chiffres à l'appui, des résultats locaux modifiés à la fédération, une hausse inexpliquée de 70% de la participation dans une section, des votes par téléphone ou encore un bureau de vote "déplacé au dernier moment au domicile de la secrétaire de section".

Le premier secrétaire de la fédération de Guadeloupe, Jules Otto, a fait part "de son indignation" face à ces accusations, expliquant dans un communiqué que la participation avait été boostée par le décalage horaire, les Guadeloupéens étant allés voter "quand il est apparu que les résultats seraient serrés". AP


In France, wherever in general elections or party primaries, there never was a need for recount, as the US are now fond of.
In general elections, offixial results are proclaimed and you go to the public law judge, which is also an electoral judge.
For party elections, either there is rules which are enoughe, or, as in the PS case, there is nothing. And so, it can go on and on and on.

We have NEVER seen something like that in all French electoral history !

Aubry-Coleman vs Royal-Franken !
(yes, let's keep "locos" together...)

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Hashemite
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« Reply #132 on: November 23, 2008, 12:34:03 PM »

There are (strong) examples of cheating on both sides.

In the 13, some Delanoe-Aubry supporters reported being intimidated by the Guerini federation.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #133 on: November 23, 2008, 04:46:42 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2008, 05:12:39 PM by big bad fab »

There are (strong) examples of cheating on both sides.

In the 13, some Delanoe-Aubry supporters reported being intimidated by the Guerini federation.

Even if you are not anti-Royal, it's quite obvious that "magouilles" or scheming and cheating are a sort of old Tradition in Bouches-du-Rhône, Hérault and Guadeloupe... and I wouldn't be very confident in Essonne's results as well.

Sure, in Seine-Maritime, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Seine-Saint-Denis, they are not young virgins, devoid of any wrongdoing...

But, cheating from some supporters of Royal (Guérini, Frèche, Dray, Rebsamen) are likely to be far greater than those from some supporters of Aubry (Bartolone, Fabius, Cambadélis).

Anyway, the fight will be long and bitter.
But the PS isn't likely to explode, because, the one who leaves loses public financing, based on parties having had candidates in the last "législatives" (parliamentarian elections).

Hashemite, I've just sent you the pdf file of 2nd round results by federations.
You can find it on the PS site now and on lefigaro.fr.
Impossible to get first round results....
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SPQR
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« Reply #134 on: November 23, 2008, 04:54:01 PM »

So,what's Aubry's lead at the moment?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #135 on: November 23, 2008, 04:57:48 PM »

Anyway, the fight will be long and bitter.
But the PS isn't likely to explode, because, the one who leaves loses public financing, based on parties having had candidates in the last "législatives" (parlementarian elections).

I doubt it will implode, too. Mainly for the same reasons and they're not entirely stupid.

Hashemite, I've just sent you the pdf file of 2nd turn results by federations.
You can find it on the PS site now and on lefigaro.fr.
Impossible to get first round results....

Thanks, but I made that map yesterday.




I lost track with all the gnomes admitting their mistakes and the whole thing of counting New Caledonia/Polynesia/FFE or not.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #136 on: November 23, 2008, 05:10:40 PM »

Sorry !
I've just checked and I can't see your map of yesterday. Don't know why.
Anyway, this new one is OK.

Gironde and Haute-Garonne are really the 2 big surprises.

My friends, let's have a look at Hashemite's thread on French by-elections and you will see that the PS is on the verge of gaining one parliamentarian seat in Gironde !!!!
Who has said the PS is in crisis !!!
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PGSable
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« Reply #137 on: November 23, 2008, 06:11:55 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2008, 10:31:28 PM by PGSable »


By this count, Aubry is now leading Royal by 56 votes.

The count on Friday night was Aubry 67 413, Royal 67 371 (Aubry +42).
Changes since then were:
Moselle: Aubry –12, Royal +12
Nord: Aubry –20, Royal ±0
New Caledonia: Aubry +3, Royal +16
Gironde: Aubry +11, Royal –41
French citizens abroad: Aubry +49, Royal +30

So, in total, Aubry's vote increased by 31 to 67 444, and Royal's vote increased by 17 to 67 388 (Aubry +56).
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CCA
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« Reply #138 on: November 24, 2008, 02:00:15 AM »

Couldn't they just have a revote with just Royale and Aubry?

To settle things once and for all?
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big bad fab
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« Reply #139 on: November 24, 2008, 05:31:30 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2008, 06:34:53 AM by big bad fab »

Please, it's Royal, not Royale.

If you vote again, but with the same split result and with the same cheatings, it's useless.

Either they agree on a name now (with a bitter fight keeping on weakening the party for years),
or (as Moscovici has partly proposed) they choose a collegial leadership for some months, before voting again on clear projects, with clear alliances and better polling rules and checks...
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Hashemite
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« Reply #140 on: November 24, 2008, 07:53:28 AM »

Couldn't they just have a revote with just Royale and Aubry?

To settle things once and for all?

Cheating and dirty tricks wouldn't disappear. And around 70% of PS supporters are opposed to a re-vote.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #141 on: November 24, 2008, 09:39:18 AM »

Couldn't they just have a revote with just Royale and Aubry?

To settle things once and for all?

Cheating and dirty tricks wouldn't disappear. And around 70% of PS supporters are opposed to a re-vote.

Sure, but be careful about this poll. It's a poll from OpinionWay, which polls through the web and which makes polls only for Le Figaro...
Anyway, this is 70% (63% in fact and 69% of French people as a whole, IIRC) of supporters, not of PS members (these would be too difficult to poll, of course).

I think it's just that people are now fed up with the Socialist party and its quarrels and internal votes (3 in 2 weeks, plus the Congress itself).... while the economic crisis is here.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #142 on: November 24, 2008, 03:30:49 PM »

Would someone care to explain the Lille situation to me?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #143 on: November 24, 2008, 03:53:10 PM »

Would someone care to explain the Lille situation to me?

The Lille-Centre PS section reported 110 votes for Aubry and 25ish (IIRC) for Royal. When the Nord fed sent the results to Paris, it had 130 votes for Aubry and the same amount as before for Royal.

Also, Aubry is Mayor of Lille and has lots of sway over the Nord fed.

Couldn't they just have a revote with just Royale and Aubry?

To settle things once and for all?

Cheating and dirty tricks wouldn't disappear. And around 70% of PS supporters are opposed to a re-vote.

Sure, but be careful about this poll. It's a poll from OpinionWay, which polls through the web and which makes polls only for Le Figaro...
Anyway, this is 70% (63% in fact and 69% of French people as a whole, IIRC) of supporters, not of PS members (these would be too difficult to poll, of course).

I think it's just that people are now fed up with the Socialist party and its quarrels and internal votes (3 in 2 weeks, plus the Congress itself).... while the economic crisis is here.

Ah, OpinionWay. The news didn't mention the pollster last night.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #144 on: November 24, 2008, 03:58:38 PM »

Fun to see the old machine-strongholds of SFIO battles of the past (Nord, Bouches-du-Rhône...) feature so much in this. Gaston Defferre's ghost must be enjoying himself.
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PGSable
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« Reply #145 on: November 24, 2008, 04:35:09 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2008, 07:58:34 PM by PGSable »

The commission de récolement met today. The Royal campaign accused forty federations of voter fraud. Royal said she trusts the commission, and that she will call for a revote if the result is too close, even if she wins by ten votes. Devedjian supports a revote (of course he does). There were also some calls for Royal and Aubry to be co-first secretaries (as if things weren't going quite well enough for Sarkozy).

The commission will meet again tomorrow at 2:00 PM, and it should deliver its verdict tomorrow.

The PS's website says there was no significant voter fraud.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #146 on: November 24, 2008, 05:26:19 PM »

The commission de récolement met today. Royal and Vaillant accused forty federations of voter fraud.

Vaillant, an old jospinist and former Home Minister, is the president of this committee. He denies there are cheatings or mistakes in as much as 40 federations. You must have wanted to write Rebsamen or Assouline or Mignard.

Tonight, the "royalistes" threaten to sue the party and to organize a popular gathering in front of PS building,rue de Solférino....

My friends, I think we'll have to call the police soon....
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Hashemite
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« Reply #147 on: November 24, 2008, 05:40:59 PM »

The commission de récolement met today. Royal and Vaillant accused forty federations of voter fraud.

Vaillant, an old jospinist and former Home Minister, is the president of this committee. He denies there are cheatings or mistakes in as much as 40 federations. You must have wanted to write Rebsamen or Assouline or Mignard.

Tonight, the "royalistes" threaten to sue the party and to organize a popular gathering in front of PS building,rue de Solférino....

My friends, I think we'll have to call the police soon....

I hope the drug rehab centres are open in Paris.

This is too funny.
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Math
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« Reply #148 on: November 24, 2008, 06:10:51 PM »

There were also some calls for Royal and Aubry to be co-first secretaries (as if things weren't going quite well enough for Sarkozy).

I hope they will run as a ticket in 2012, like Deferre/PMF in 1969. The primary will only determine who will be the head of the ticket, and I will vote for Ségolène. It will be crazy !
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PGSable
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« Reply #149 on: November 24, 2008, 07:58:10 PM »

The commission de récolement met today. Royal and Vaillant accused forty federations of voter fraud.

Vaillant, an old jospinist and former Home Minister, is the president of this committee. He denies there are cheatings or mistakes in as much as 40 federations. You must have wanted to write Rebsamen or Assouline or Mignard.

Oops. I meant Manuel Valls.
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