Newest Fox News/Rasmussen Swing State Polls

[ChrisFromNJ]

Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 48
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Ohio: McCain 50, Obama 46
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

Apparently there is a Florida and Pennsylvania poll coming soon.

[© tweed]

FL: McCain 51, Obama 46
OH: McCain 50, Obama 46
MI: Obama 51, McCain 44
PA: Obama 48, McCain 45
VA: McCain 50, Obama 48

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/22/fox-newsrasmussen-poll-race-in-swing-states-mirrors-2004-election/

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

PA and MI are encouraging.  Still just need Colorado to flip. 

[Verily]

Didn't they do Colorado in past weeks? Or am I misremembering?

[Sam Spade]

Just after I entered Virginia, I saw you entered this.  So, everything's being linked to this thread now.

[mypalfish]

Okay, Michigan is off the table.  Pull all resources out of there and shift to Colorado.

[© tweed]

Okay, Michigan is off the table.  Pull all resources out of there and shift to Colorado.

the problem with doing that is, assuming McCain is actually writing off NM and IA, he's leaving himself with no margin for error in CO and VA unless he plays some offense in NH, PA, and MI.

[Ronnie]

I still have hope for PA.  I just have to see how the undecideds break.

MI seems lost, though.

[Sam Spade]

Okay, Michigan is off the table.  Pull all resources out of there and shift to Colorado.

the problem with doing that is, assuming McCain is actually writing off NM and IA, he's leaving himself with no margin for error in CO and VA unless he plays some offense in NH, PA, and MI.

You're trying to reason with fish, Tweed?

[Rococo4]

I had braced for worse.

It was stupid they didnt do CO this week.  That is the one people probably arre the most interested in.....other than a few people on this board.

VA is close.  I think McCain should hang on there, I just dont know.

[pepper11]

"There is no clear reason as to why these battleground state polls remained stable while the national trend moved in Obama’s direction. However, it is worth noting that Obama didn’t really gain ground nationally over the past week. Rather, McCain lost support."

According to Ras there was a 4 point swing between surveys. M +3 last time, and O + 1 this time.  With the exception of MI, these are very good numbers for McCain. If he wins the popular vote, he has a great shot at PA.

[Nym90]

Numbers look reasonable.

Shouldn't be surprising to anyone with an eye to history that Democrats gain strength in Michigan in the fall as opposed to the summer. The "summer vacation" polling problems actually hurt Democrats here, unlike most states. Probably because we're one of the few states that has a lot of well paid well vacationed union Democrats who can actually afford to and have the time to be out of town and not responding to polls.

Not to say Obama doesn't still have demographic problems here; he certainly does. But the recent focus on the economy helps him here more than most states.

Pennsylvania still has me concerned a bit, though it's polled a very consistent narrow Obama edge for a long time.

Otherwise, numbers look pretty reasonable. Too bad they didn't do Colorado, however, as that clearly seems to be the tipping point state at this juncture.

[© tweed]

also, why is Scott choosing to make these one-day Sunday samples?

[Sam Spade]

also, why is Scott choosing to make these one-day Sunday samples?

Dunno - well, the one-day poll is his thing.  Sunday night is a better time to poll than Friday or Saturday night, for obvious reasons.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, these numbers look a little better for Mac than I had expected. Florida and Ohio continue to be bitches. VA remains very tight.

But why hell would they not poll CO this week? It seems more and more likely to be this election's crucial state.

[mypalfish]

Okay, Michigan is off the table.  Pull all resources out of there and shift to Colorado.

the problem with doing that is, assuming McCain is actually writing off NM and IA, he's leaving himself with no margin for error in CO and VA unless he plays some offense in NH, PA, and MI.

NH is winnable, and even PA isn't out of the realm of possibility even with the horrible week McCain had.  But Michigan isn't even competitive now, and it's time to focus time and money where you have a legit shot to win.  I can't understand not being in Colorado more.

Heck, our internals for house races also show McCain doing about as well as Bush in certain districts.  Now Bush lost narrowly here in Wisconsin, but it will be closer than Michigan.

I even heard some nasty talk today that McCain is opening up shop in California, which is beyond nauseating, if true.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks good to me (except Michigan but I'm not expecting to win there anyway).

[RJ]

I wouldn't write off Michigan if I were McCain's camp just yet. There will probably be 3 or 4 states that become more competitive before Michigan will at this point, but it's certainly worth putting some money into as of now. I'd say Michigan is more likely for McCain(at least closer) than New Mexico or Minnesota.

[J. J.]

I'm Probably giving PA and MI to Obama.  I think there is a Bradley effect, but not that great of one.

[mypalfish]

I'm Probably giving PA and MI to Obama.  I think there is a Bradley effect, but not that great of one.

I'm so sick of hearing about the "Bradley effect" and the whining about racism costing Obama the election.  Why aren't the Dems just happy their guy is pretty comfortably ahead?  I was talking to a Milwaukee attorney today who is active in Democrat politics in the city and he is convinced...and I mean convinced...that it will be at least a 3 pt swing for McCain due to racism/bradley effect.   I told him he was nuts and to relax and enjoy his guy's victory.

I just don't understand this paranoia.

[Lunar]

On the forum, it's only Republicans (mainly, one Republican) that talk constantly about the Bradley Effect.  I don't see where the whining about racism is on the forum, frankly.

There's a good thread on it that just had barely slipped off the front page, I brought it back up.

[Sam Spade]

If there's a *Bradley effect* nowadays, it has to do with how undecideds break in certain places.  JMO.

[mypalfish]

On the forum, it's only Republicans (mainly, one Republican) that talk constantly about the Bradley Effect.  I don't see where the whining about racism is on the forum, frankly.

There's a good thread on it that just had barely slipped off the front page, I brought it back up.

I'm not talking about the forum, but all the attention that goofy poll got today that said racism could cost Obama up to 6 pts, which is just patently ridiculous.  Why make excuses for losing when it's cut and dried the guy is going to win?  I don't think he deserves to win...Obama has always been a very lucky politician...and it's better to be lucky than good.  The timing of the financial crisis couldn't have been better for Obama.  He had been on the defensive and now attention is taken off him and then McCain blunders with his "fundamentals of the economy" remark and the election is handed to him on a silver platter.  But I'm realistic enough to see how the polls/numbers are breaking.  It just drives me nuts to read articles about panicked Dems worried about losing...are they nuts?

[Lunar]

Yeah everyone on the forum knows that AP story was whack.  Wasn't a sample of likely voters (all adults instead), was an overly pro-Bush sample (3 in 10 Dems going GOP?), ignored Black voters voting for Obama because he's black, poor analysis, leading questions (ok, so you're white, how do you feel about racism, how do you feel about blacks, now, will you vote for Barack?) etc.

But there's stupid people everywhere, complaining about complainers on the forum when there are none is silly because then you're the complainer people are complaining about   (joking)

[Tender Branson]

FL and OH are probably not winnable.

MI is a state where Obama is favored.

VA is a pure toss-up.

I don´t know about PA. It`s certainly #1 on the  Republican list and they already poured 10-15 Mio. $ in there. But I think in the end it'll be 2-5% for Obama. Remember that Rasmussen also underpolled Bob Casey in 2006 by 8% in Mid-September. In September 2004, Rasmussen showed a tie too.