If Obama (McCain) wins who will be the GOP (Dem) nominee in 2012?

[politicaltipster]

If Obama wins who will be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2012?
If McCain wins who will be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2012?

Note: Sarah Palin does not implode in this scenario. Credible third party candidates who would have a chance of winning can also be suggested.

[OldWeirdAmerica]

If Obama wins, and is popular throughout his first term, I expect someone like Huckabee will emerge as the Republican candidate. His campaign would be focused on keeping the base energized, not on winning. I imagine Palin and Romney will also be major contenders. I would not be surprised if a libertarian-leaning or anti-war Republican such as Gary Johnson or Jimmy Duncan ran, as well. Duncan would probably get 1-3% in the primaries. Johnson would probably get around 10%. If Obama is unpopular, it is more likely that someone like Bobby Jindal will run. Sarah Palin would also have a good chance in that situation.

If McCain wins, it's possible he might choose not to run for reelection, leaving Sarah Palin as the basically certain nominee for 2012. In that case, I can actually see Obama running again. Or, if Obama doesn't run, and with Hillary out of the way, Bill Richardson might run again and pick up more support this time around. A more interesting candidate would be Jim Webb, but he's unlikely to run.

As far as independents go, I expect Mike Bloomberg will run in 2012 if the two major parties have uninspiring candidates. Yes, Obama may no longer be a God to most Democrats by that time. Jesse Ventura has hinted at a 2012 run, and I'm sure his campaign would be spirited, but given his dalliance with 9-11 Truth I'd be surprised if he got more than 5%.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Obama wins:
GOP 2012 ticket frontrunner: Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty/Sen. John Ensign

McCain wins:
Dem 2012 ticket: Sen. Hillary Clinton/Fmr. Gov. Brad Henry

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If Obama wins, and is popular throughout his first term, I expect someone like Huckabee will emerge as the Republican candidate. His campaign would be focused on keeping the base energized, not on winning. I imagine Palin and Romney will also be major contenders. I would not be surprised if a libertarian-leaning or anti-war Republican such as Gary Johnson or Jimmy Duncan ran, as well. Duncan would probably get 1-3% in the primaries. Johnson would probably get around 10%. If Obama is unpopular, it is more likely thay someone like Bobby Jindal will run. Sarah Palin would also have a good chance in that situation.

If McCain wins, it's possible he might choose not to run for reelection, leaving Sarah Palin as the basically certain nominee for 2012. In that case, I can actually see Obama running again. Or, if Obama doesn't run, and with Hillary out of the way, Bill Richardson might run again and pick up more support this time around. A more interesting candidate would be Jim Webb, but he's unlikely to run.

As far as independents go, I expect Mike Bloomberg will run in 2012 if the two major parties have uninspiring candidates. Yes, Obama may no longer be a God to most Democrats by that time. Jesse Ventura has hinted at a 2012 run, and I'm sure his campaign would be spirited, but given his dalliance with 9-11 Truth I'd be surprised if he got more than 5%.

I am friends with congressman Duncan and I do not see him running for President. I see him taking a run at the senate in the next time around if McCain wins in 2008 however if Obama wins I have a gut feeling that he will stay in the house.

Him running for the senate would take him challenging Bob Corker in the GOP primary if Corker runs for reelection and I believe that this would be a close call, I respect and have great admiration for both men. But, there would be a big difference between Corker and Duncan on the war, Duncan does not support the war effort and I believe that Corker does support the war effort.

Gporter, are you really good friends with the Congressman?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

By saying you were friends, you're implying something more than a signed photo in which he calls you a friend.  Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas would recognize me if she saw me, and we know each other fairly well, but that hardly makes us "friends".  Words are important, use them correctly.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

By saying you were friends, you're implying something more than a signed photo in which he calls you a friend.  Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas would recognize me if she saw me, and we know each other fairly well, but that hardly makes us "friends".  Words are important, use them correctly.

well, why does it matter to you? you should not care.

and you should not be judging the way that I use my words. there are plenty of times that I could comment about you and others more often on this forum and their words, but I choose not to do so.

and one more thing that I forgot to say about the congressman Duncan, we also attend the same church.

I'm merely trying to protect Congressman Duncan's reputation; make sure you don't have undue influence on him.

I can judge you because your worse with words than George Bush after too many shots of whiskey.

And I go to the same synagogue as Scooter Libby; big deal.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

By saying you were friends, you're implying something more than a signed photo in which he calls you a friend.  Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas would recognize me if she saw me, and we know each other fairly well, but that hardly makes us "friends".  Words are important, use them correctly.

well, why does it matter to you? you should not care.

and you should not be judging the way that I use my words. there are plenty of times that I could comment about you and others more often on this forum and their words, but I choose not to do so.

and one more thing that I forgot to say about the congressman Duncan, we also attend the same church.

I'm merely trying to protect Congressman Duncan's reputation; make sure you don't have undue influence on him.

I can judge you because your worse with words than George Bush after too many shots of whiskey.

And I go to the same synagogue as Scooter Libby; big deal.

well, there is quite a comparison between you and Scooter Libby. I am surprised that you two are not friends, from what I know, you two have a lot in common.

I can say right up that I do not have influence over his policies. If I did, then I would encourage him to support the war effort. But, I have no influence over him.

What do I have in common with Scooter Libby?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

By saying you were friends, you're implying something more than a signed photo in which he calls you a friend.  Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas would recognize me if she saw me, and we know each other fairly well, but that hardly makes us "friends".  Words are important, use them correctly.

well, why does it matter to you? you should not care.

and you should not be judging the way that I use my words. there are plenty of times that I could comment about you and others more often on this forum and their words, but I choose not to do so.

and one more thing that I forgot to say about the congressman Duncan, we also attend the same church.

I'm merely trying to protect Congressman Duncan's reputation; make sure you don't have undue influence on him.

I can judge you because your worse with words than George Bush after too many shots of whiskey.

And I go to the same synagogue as Scooter Libby; big deal.

well, there is quite a comparison between you and Scooter Libby. I am surprised that you two are not friends, from what I know, you two have a lot in common.

I can say right up that I do not have influence over his policies. If I did, then I would encourage him to support the war effort. But, I have no influence over him.

What do I have in common with Scooter Libby?

your character for one thing. but that is the same with myself and all of the other forum members in one way or another.

Please, elaborate.  I fail to comprehend how I am in any way similar to Mr. Libby, aside from our religious beliefs.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think you're both Jewish. Part of the global conspiracy to take over the media.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Why do a vast majority of threads on the Election What Ifs board always turns the most obscure threads into debates between Mr. Porter and Mr. Constine? If you two want to settle your differences once and for all then by all means do so in similar fashion to foxy boxing.

If I did, then I would encourage him to support the war effort. But, I have no influence over him.

Out of curiosity Garrison I would like to ask you the following questions regarding the War in Iraq. As I would like to get a southerners perspective of the War, in particular that of conservative teenager living in the United States. The questions are as follows:

• Why would you ask Congressman Duncan to support the War in Iraq?
• Why do you support the War in Iraq, despite a vast majority of Americans being opposed the controversial conflict being fought in the Middle East with the exception of some, inclusive of you?
• Did you ever believe or continue to believe that Saddam Hussein posed a threat towards to the United States and her allies?

Anyway, now you have my perspective of the constant bickering between Mr. Porter and Mr. Constine here's my perspective on two scenarios regarding the 2012 Presidential Election. One if Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is elected President in November and one if Senator John McCain of Arizona is elected President in November.

If Barack Obama loses to John McCain on November 4, 2008, I believe that the Democratic Party will take a sharp turn to the centre and nominate somebody along the lines of current  Governor of Montana Brian Schweitzer who would have completed two terms as Governor by 2012 or soon-to-be Senator Mark Warner of Virginia. Although I expect either Schweitzer or Warner to be the Democrats candidate in 2012, if Barack Obama is to lose in 2008, I wouldn't be surprised if New York Senator and 2008 Presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton makes a second bid for the White House in 2012.

If John McCain loses to Barack Obama on November 4, 2008, the crop of candidates depends on Barack Obama's first term as President. If Barack Obama manages to have a successful first term then expect a "sacrificial lamb" candidate such as former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas to be nominated to keep the base content. However, if Barack Obama does not have a successful term in 2012 then expect a large abundance of charismatic conservatives to enter the field such as Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin or Governor of Lousiana Bobby Jindal to be nominated. Despite whether or not Barack Obama's first term is successful or not I would assume that Palin, Jindal, Huckabee and Romney will seek the Republican Nomination in 2012.

[OldWeirdAmerica]

If Obama wins, and is popular throughout his first term, I expect someone like Huckabee will emerge as the Republican candidate. His campaign would be focused on keeping the base energized, not on winning. I imagine Palin and Romney will also be major contenders. I would not be surprised if a libertarian-leaning or anti-war Republican such as Gary Johnson or Jimmy Duncan ran, as well. Duncan would probably get 1-3% in the primaries. Johnson would probably get around 10%. If Obama is unpopular, it is more likely thay someone like Bobby Jindal will run. Sarah Palin would also have a good chance in that situation.

If McCain wins, it's possible he might choose not to run for reelection, leaving Sarah Palin as the basically certain nominee for 2012. In that case, I can actually see Obama running again. Or, if Obama doesn't run, and with Hillary out of the way, Bill Richardson might run again and pick up more support this time around. A more interesting candidate would be Jim Webb, but he's unlikely to run.

As far as independents go, I expect Mike Bloomberg will run in 2012 if the two major parties have uninspiring candidates. Yes, Obama may no longer be a God to most Democrats by that time. Jesse Ventura has hinted at a 2012 run, and I'm sure his campaign would be spirited, but given his dalliance with 9-11 Truth I'd be surprised if he got more than 5%.

I am friends with congressman Duncan and I do not see him running for President. I see him taking a run at the senate in the next time around if McCain wins in 2008 however if Obama wins I have a gut feeling that he will stay in the house.

Him running for the senate would take him challenging Bob Corker in the GOP primary if Corker runs for reelection and I believe that this would be a close call, I respect and have great admiration for both men. But, there would be a big difference between Corker and Duncan on the war, Duncan does not support the war effort and I believe that Corker does support the war effort.

Thanks for this information. I just read about Congressman Duncan in Ain't My America, a book about anti-war conservatism by Bill Kauffman. I supported Ron Paul in the primary, and I would like to see an anti-war Republican run in 2012. I can understand why he wouldn't run, though.

Taking a stand against one's government starting a non-defensive and wasteful war is one of the most conservative and patriotic things one can do. Congressmen Duncan and Paul are brave to stand up for the interests of their country against the plans of the warmongering elites.

[JSojourner]

Obama wins:
GOP 2012 ticket frontrunner: Fmr. Gov. Tim Pawlenty/Sen. John Ensign

McCain wins:
Dem 2012 ticket: Sen. Hillary Clinton/Fmr. Gov. Brad Henry

Good call on Henry.  I don't think his star has set yet.

Ensign is a smart guy, but there are a lot of people in his own party questioning his political acumen.  Isn't he the guy who couldn't recruit qualified candidates to run in places where Republicans SHOULD be winning Senate races?  I know it's a thankless job, but I don't think the GOP is going to reward him with a VP slot.

If Obama is President in 2012, I would expect to see the usual GOP suspects in the primary:  Huckabee, Palin, Romney, etc.  But I would keep a careful eye on Mike Pence and/or John Thune from the House and Senate respectively.  And as for governors, Pawlenty, Sanford (if he wants it -- I would be guided by AH Duke's opinion on this) and perhaps John Hoeven.  Hoeven is a pretty stout guy, politically, even if he does hail from a small state.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If Obama wins, look for Palin, Jindal, and Romney to run for sure.  I'd say it's likely that Huckabee runs as well, although he may back Palin.  Also, don't be surprised if Crist, Huntsman, or some other dark horse decides to enter the race as well.

If McCain wins, then Hillary will almost certainly run.  Also, I'd expect Warner to run, along with other dark horses like Schweitzer, Webb, or, if he loses in an Al Gore manner, Barack Obama.

[JSojourner]

If Obama wins, look for Palin, Jindal, and Romney to run for sure.  I'd say it's likely that Huckabee runs as well, although he may back Palin.  Also, don't be surprised if Crist, Huntsman, or some other dark horse decides to enter the race as well.

If McCain wins, then Hillary will almost certainly run.  Also, I'd expect Warner to run, along with other dark horses like Schweitzer, Webb, or, if he loses in an Al Gore manner, Barack Obama.

Crist would be really interesting.  If he is gay, then someone will make that an issue -- even though it shouldn't matter one bit.  If he isn't gay, then someone will make THAT an issue -- that is, why people suspected he was gay.  Ditto, Lindsey Graham and David Dreier.

I just wish we could finally get over our discomfort with sexual preferences.  I want the best President.  Not the best straight President.