is obama imploding?

[WalterMitty]

im still amazed that this thing is even remotely close, given everything the democrats have going in their favor.

but to use a football analogy, it appears to me that on or about august 29, 2008, obama fumbled the ball in the red zone and team mccain recovered it.

[Brittain33]

im still amazed that this thing is even remotely close, given everything the democrats have going in their favor.

but to use a football analogy, it appears to me that on or about august 29, 2008, obama fumbled the ball in the red zone and team mccain recovered it.

I don't know, it feels to me like the momentum is in Obama's favor right now, even with McCain holding a current lead... but I am an optimist. I think McCain's losing his convention bounce and we're reverting back to fundamentals which favor Obama, but not overwhelmingly so. The Rasmussen polls seemed like confirmation of a narrow McCain lead that would be enough for a narrow McCain victory if they held, but they already aren't holding, in my view.

[MODU]

No, I don't think Obama is imploding.  He is losing some of the blind support due to the extra long campaign this year, now that people have tuned out the sermons on hope and change, as well as endured some of the unprepared reactionary responses by him and his campaign on major issues that have popped up. 

This is easily recoverable in the next 50 days however.

[Iosif]

1 point behind in the national polls.

Yeah, he should pack it all in. The democrats should've nominated Hillary - she knows how to win a campaign.

With Mark Penn who can fail?

[opebo]

Walter Mitty, Obama is a black.  The amazing thing is he's polling at only around 4-5 points below the white candidate (who white people support).

[J. J.]

No, it's a close race and Palin rattled the Obama campaign, but it's not an implosion. 

[KeyKeeper]

No, Obama's campaign just tripped and feel after the Palin pick, now they are trying to get back up.

[Aizen]

Obama has been rattled although the tracking polls are finally starting to tighten again. It's not over yet.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No, Palin just turned out to be the type of VP pick that people like.  The McCain campaign has said they were going to try and make this thing about personalities and Palin was a hit (unfortunately) with the American mainstream. 

Still, this thing is about who's on top of the ticket and there are 3 debates coming up (as well as a VP debate that is going to be hilarious) that will boost Obama back up.  I'm still saying he takes thing thing by 6. 

[Lief 🗽]

Oh yeah, Obama is definitely done. Stick a fork in him. What kind of failure of a candidate is behind by 1 point nationally and still tied in the electoral vote after the other party's convention? We should have totally nominated Hilary. She was so amazing and wonderful.

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

he ''s had a bad week or two but, If I was  betting man I would still say that obama is going to carry this thing, the environment is still really toxic for the Republicans I still can't see Mccain  winning in PA or MI,I think most of the polls have Obama winning in Colorado. 

[Sam Spade]

Generally, when waltermitty says something, believe the exact opposite is occurring.

[perdedor]

Considering that John McCain now feels the need to borrow Obama's campaign slogans in order to stay a float and can only create momentum through bold face lies, I would say that he is in far worse shape than Obama.

[Stranger in a strange land]

In worse shape than he was two weeks ago? yes. Imploding? no.

I feel things may have shifted in the last two to three days, as the main story is now "Lehman Brothers is going out of business and the stock market fell below 11000" rather than "Sarah Palin hunts for moose and has five kids." Also, Obama is finally starting to hit back against McCain and Palin with some effective ads, and Palin's first interview didn't go so great.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In worse shape than he was two weeks ago? yes. Imploding? no.

Not even that actually. THREE weeks ago, yes.

[Bacon King]

As I am mostly an ignorant regarding football, what is the "red zone"? Just curious.

[opebo]

As I am mostly an ignorant regarding football, what is the "red zone"? Just curious.

Well, it has to do with jock itch, you see.

[Sam Spade]

Generally, when waltermitty says something, believe the exact opposite is occurring.

Well I see I've made the comedy goldmine, so I probably should explain this comment. 

Since Ike came in on Saturday, Obama has had three good days in a row.  Yesterday, in particular, was especially good because of the economic news and so the little trickle became a one-day spike. 

Today, it appears like Obama has had a good day also, but I might expect a little pull-back from the one-day spike (that's what tends to happen).  We'll see whether I'm right and secondly, whether McCain can turn things around again.

The point here is quite simple:  Whenever changes are occurring, you have to read deep inside the lines to see what's going on.  At the point where the NY Times has actually gotten around to writing about the issue, you can be assured that it's over and things may have already changed back the other way.

Similarly, at this forum, waltermitty = NY Times.

[JohnCA246]

Doesn't every campaign implode right after the other guys convention?

[MODU]

Doesn't every campaign implode right after the other guys convention?

I think it is one of J.J.'s rules. 

[Person Man]

Doesn't every campaign implode right after the other guys convention?

I think it is one of J.J.'s rules. 

That's how it works, right?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Obama reclaimed the lead in the national tracking poll average today.

[Person Man]

I think Obama reclaimed the lead in the national tracking poll average today.

Probably not now, but by the end of the week I'm sure. Did you know that Ferraro scared the Republicans for a week or two in 1984?

[J. J.]

Doesn't every campaign implode right after the other guys convention?

I think it is one of J.J.'s rules. 

That's how it works, right?

No. 

[minionofmidas]

I think Obama reclaimed the lead in the national tracking poll average today.

Probably not now, but by the end of the week I'm sure. Did you know that Ferraro scared the Republicans for a week or two in 1984?

If you count Diageo and/or R2000, or count them both at half-weight compared to Ras/Gallup (probably about sane) then yes. If you insist only on counting the longer-running ones, then no.