FL: Rasmussen: McCain 49, Obama 44

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: Florida President by Rasmussen on 2008-09-14

Summary: D: 44%, R: 49%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Topline Numbers

McCain 49%

Obama 44%

Barr 2%

Nader 2%

McKinney 0%

Undecided 3%

[Ty440]

Mccain's grip is tightening on FL .. as i always figured it would

[Eraserhead]

Last week's poll was probably an outlier.

[Keystone Phil]

Wonderful

[J. J.]

We got trend, as expected, the only surprise is VA.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Can we put a R in the subject title, please?

These are Fox News' polls, after all.

[J. J.]

Can we put a R in the subject title, please?

These are Fox News' polls, after all.

Judging from 2004, the R should stand for "Right." 

[© tweed]

Can we put a R in the subject title, please?

These are Fox News' polls, after all.

go away

[Nym90]

Definitely a lean McCain state now. McCain's national margin is the same as Bush in 2004 was right now and likewise Florida is the same as 2004 was.

[J. J.]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

[Alcon]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

PA is leaning McCain already?  Or are you still maintaining that "the polls in PA are wrong" thing?

[Lunar]

I think he's saying that Rasmussen is dead on + bradley effect + better McCain ground game.

Still a hilariously biased interpretation of the polls, but whatevsky.

[Lief 🗽]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Hahahaha.

[J. J.]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

PA is leaning McCain already?  Or are you still maintaining that "the polls in PA are wrong" thing?

I said "probably a slight lean to McCain."  I'm looking at the trend.  PA has tightened and I suspect a Bradley Effect (small, but there).

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Hahahaha.

Didn't you say that about McCain getting closer in PA? 

[Eraserhead]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Stop spinning.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Stop spinning.

This is like if you got sick of the color of your house and thus started yelling at it demanding it change its color.

[Eraserhead]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Stop spinning.

This is like if you got sick of the color of your house and thus started yelling at it demanding it change its color.

I know, but I have to get the frustration created by his posts out somehow.

[The Vorlon]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Hahahaha.

Love the graphic in your signature by the way.. amazingly week done

[J. J.]

Let's see, the last few times BRTD and Eraserhead said this, it was about how close FL was, and how PA was was going for Obama.

I would like to see the midweek tracking polls.

[TheresNoMoney]

OH, VA, NV, and CO are tossups. PA is definite lean Obama, as is MI, WI, NH and NM. FL is strong lean McCain.

[Alcon]

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

PA is leaning McCain already?  Or are you still maintaining that "the polls in PA are wrong" thing?

I said "probably a slight lean to McCain."  I'm looking at the trend.  PA has tightened and I suspect a Bradley Effect (small, but there).

Right now, I would say that, without a major McCain collapse, both OH and FL are lost to Obama.  CO and NV are probably leaning McCain.  PA, VA, tossups, probably a slight lean to McCain.  MI, NH, WI, unknown.  NM, possibly Obama.

Hahahaha.

Didn't you say that about McCain getting closer in PA? 

Dude, you can run a mathematical trend via the national polls.  FiveThirtyEight does it.  It comes to Obama +2.  Without weighting for pollster quality (a "pure" weight) it's close to Obama +2.5.  Slight lean McCain?  Based on one Rasmussen poll showing a tie, two days ago, with tracking polls tightening since then?

Edit: Date corrected, rest of post stands.

[J. J.]

OH, VA, NV, and CO are tossups. PA is definite lean Obama, as is MI, WI, NH and NM. FL is strong lean McCain.

Dream on.  OH is solidly McCain.  PA has slipped from solid Obama to toss up.  VA, back to tossup (with perhaps a slight lean McCain).  MI, WI, NH, well, I'll wait for poll data, though I'd expect one to be Obama's.

[Alcon]

OH, VA, NV, and CO are tossups. PA is definite lean Obama, as is MI, WI, NH and NM. FL is strong lean McCain.

Dream on.  OH is solidly McCain.  PA has slipped from solid Obama to toss up.  VA, back to tossup (with perhaps a slight lean McCain).  MI, WI, NH, well, I'll wait for poll data, though I'd expect one to be Obama's.

This is one of the peaks of McCain's performance thus far.  His best poll is +7.  The trend-adjusted average currently stands at +3.

In PA, on the other hand, Obama's best poll was +12.  At one point, his trend-adjusted average was +7.

Yet Ohio is "safe McCain," and Pennsylvania has been a toss-up for a while?

Where is this coming from?

[TheresNoMoney]

Dream on.  OH is solidly McCain. 

McCain has reached a peak in the past 4-5 days. His bounce is now over and his numbers will start to decline (already have really).

I guess we'll see who's right in November, kind of pointless to argue with a guy that says that PA is a tossup.

[Lunar]

OH, VA, NV, and CO are tossups. PA is definite lean Obama, as is MI, WI, NH and NM. FL is strong lean McCain.

Dream on.  OH is solidly McCain.  PA has slipped from solid Obama to toss up.  VA, back to tossup (with perhaps a slight lean McCain).  MI, WI, NH, well, I'll wait for poll data, though I'd expect one to be Obama's.

This is one of the peaks of McCain's performance thus far.  His best poll is +7.  The trend-adjusted average currently stands at +3.

In PA, on the other hand, Obama's best poll was +12.  At one point, his trend-adjusted average was +7.

Yet Ohio is "safe McCain," and Pennsylvania has been a toss-up for a while?

Where is this coming from?

Sure, you might have your trend-adjusted mathematical models and knowledge of statistics.

But I can cherry-pick polls and then slab some analysis on them to get them going any way i want.  If McCain is losing then "Let's wait until November.  Well at least he's trending in a positive way. I want to see more polls out before I decide.  McCain SHOULD be down further so it's great news in disguise."  If Obama is losing then it's a clear, unshakable trend.