Most likely path to Obama victory is.....

[phk]

What do you think?

[Person Man]

Gore and Kerry + Colorado.

[muon2]

Gore and Kerry + Colorado.

I assume you mean Gore or Kerry + CO, which is the same as yes to the poll. States won by Gore and Kerry would exclude IA, NH, and NM since they were not won by both.

[Sbane]

Pretty much. I think the Mccain bounce is impacting the swing states in the midwest/rust belt a bit more than the urban west.

[Nym90]

Yep, that's the easiest path to victory for Obama. Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO.

He could actually win even without NH in this scenario if he's willing to count on the House to pull him through a 269-269 tie.

[Punditty]

Kerry States plus Iowa, Colo and - you heard it hear first - Florida. That's where Clinton's visible support and unease about Palin will end up putting Obama over the top there.

[J. J.]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going.  At this point, I have doubts that Obama can hold all Gore states.

[DownWithTheLeft]

As of right now Obama does not have a path to victory, its more like what path will keep McCain under 300 EVs

[Nym90]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going.  At this point, I have doubts that Obama can hold all Gore states.

Never trust any poll in Florida other than Mason-Dixon. Or based on 2004 results, Rasmussen.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Absolutely the easiest; although I still think he'll win Virginia as well.

[ChrisFromNJ]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

[JSojourner]

I'm still convinced an Obama win is possible...but more convinced a McCain win is likely.  The good news for Obama supporters is that...

1.   The focus is slowly returning to policy and issues, over what a community organizer does or whether or not Sarah Palin can see Russia from her breakfast nook.

2.   Four debates remain -- Three Presidential and one VP debate.  I think there are three for the two big guys.  Correct me if I am wrong.

3.   A number of states are still close.

On the whole, however, this pessimist is still pretty convinced that -- barring scandal or illness (and I wish for neither) -- it's going to be nearly impossible for Barack Obama to win without fighting at least as mean and dirty as Republicans (or their surrogates) traditionally do.  I doubt that he's going to, perhaps there will be some nasty 527 ads FOR us this time.  We'll see. 

And I still think there are millions of Americans -- conservatives and good old limousine liberals -- who simply can't handle the idea of voting for a black man.  Above everything else, I hope I am wrong about THAT.  Even if Obama loses, I hope the exit polling proves that little idea of mine to be nonsense.

[J. J.]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

[ChrisFromNJ]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

Yet two of the last four polls, including the super reputable Mason-Dixon FL poll, show a tie or an Obama lead.

[J. J.]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

Yet two of the last four polls, including the super reputable Mason-Dixon FL poll, show a tie or an Obama lead.

All since have trended McCain.  I hope the Democrats spend all their money in FL dreaming.

[J. J.]

And I still think there are millions of Americans -- conservatives and good old limousine liberals -- who simply can't handle the idea of voting for a black man.  Above everything else, I hope I am wrong about THAT.  Even if Obama loses, I hope the exit polling proves that little idea of mine to be nonsense.

I really expect it's at least 10%, but, bluntly, they are likely to vote Republican anyhow.  The question is, how many of those will say that to a pollster.  Some will.

[pragmatic liberal]

Yes, although I think winning Ohio or Virginia without Colorado IS possible -- just not as likely.

[Nym90]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

I guess we have to get Vorlon and Sam in here to remind you that Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen matter more in Florida than Insider Advantage, Quinnipiac University, or Public Policy Polling. And Rasmussen was released 9/7, post convention. Unless you think a major McCain shift has happened since 9/7.

If Rasmussen tomorrow puts McCain solidly ahead, I'll agree with you.

[J. J.]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

I guess we have to get Vorlon and Sam in here to remind you that Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen matter more in Florida than Insider Advantage, Quinnipiac University, or Public Policy Polling. And Rasmussen was released 9/7, post convention. Unless you think a major McCain shift has happened since 9/7.

If Rasmussen tomorrow puts McCain solidly ahead, I'll agree with you.

It's been trending that way, which is what I'm looking at.  IIRC, FL was close than broke at about this time last cycle.  I think that 9/7 might be too early and not catch the bounce.

To me, it look like FL is heading to McCain at this point.

[Nym90]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

I guess we have to get Vorlon and Sam in here to remind you that Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen matter more in Florida than Insider Advantage, Quinnipiac University, or Public Policy Polling. And Rasmussen was released 9/7, post convention. Unless you think a major McCain shift has happened since 9/7.

If Rasmussen tomorrow puts McCain solidly ahead, I'll agree with you.

It's been trending that way, which is what I'm looking at.  IIRC, FL was close than broke at about this time last cycle.  I think that 9/7 might be too early and not catch the bounce.

To me, it look like FL is heading to McCain at this point.

It was completely post convention and all the national polls had already bounced to McCain.

Your best argument would be that it's just one poll, and that Mason Dixon was conducted preconvention, and that in the absence of further useful data it's safe to assume Florida has swung about the same as the rest of the country.

[J. J.]

FL is secure and McCain's margin may be going. 

The most laughable thing I have read all week.

Dream on.  We've been seeing enough polls to show it.

I guess we have to get Vorlon and Sam in here to remind you that Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen matter more in Florida than Insider Advantage, Quinnipiac University, or Public Policy Polling. And Rasmussen was released 9/7, post convention. Unless you think a major McCain shift has happened since 9/7.

If Rasmussen tomorrow puts McCain solidly ahead, I'll agree with you.

It's been trending that way, which is what I'm looking at.  IIRC, FL was close than broke at about this time last cycle.  I think that 9/7 might be too early and not catch the bounce.

To me, it look like FL is heading to McCain at this point.

It was completely post convention and all the national polls had already bounced to McCain.

Your best argument would be that it's just one poll, and that Mason Dixon was conducted preconvention, and that in the absence of further useful data it's safe to assume Florida has swung about the same as the rest of the country.

I'm looking at the other three post convention polls, and it's McCain.  Two are not great, but PPP has been good so far this year.  Also does Rasmussen sample over several days? 

I'd like to see more, but FL seems to me to be heading toward McCain.

[Tender Branson]

Yes.

NV should go to Obama too. OH and VA too, maybe.

Let's see what the next few weeks will bring.

[elcorazon]

the most likely scenario is that obama wins by over 2.5%, which would probably mean he has won all the Gore states, plus Colorado, but also has won Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, possibly Florida or Missouri (less likely).  I do agree though that he will likely win Colorado first so that would be the state that "puts him over the top".