Can Obama win without Colorado?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Assume that Obama fails to win Colorad; does he have a good chance of winning the election?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Winning Colorado is his only realistic chance of winning the election.

If Obama wins Ohio, he likely would have already won Colorado.

[Ronnie]

McCain can't win without winning CO either.

[Nym90]

He can, but he'd have to win either Ohio or Virginia.

So to answer the question of whether he has a good chance, no. However recent polling does show him ahead in the state; perhaps having the convention there was a wise move.

[phk]

If Obama wins, the most likely path to victory would be Gore 2000 States + NH + CO.

[opebo]

His chances of winning Colorado are not very good - maybe 25% or so.  But his chances of winning the election without it are even less.

[phk]

His chances of winning Colorado are not very good - maybe 25% or so.  But his chances of winning the election without it are even less.

who Obama or McCain?

Who wins Ohio wins the nation, unless Obama pulls it out in OH nullifying CO or if McCain prevails in PA.

[auburntiger]

No. and neither can McCain. Whoever does win will win the WH.

[phk]

His chances of winning Colorado are not very good - maybe 25% or so.  But his chances of winning the election without it are even less.

who Obama or McCain?

Who wins Ohio wins the nation, unless Obama pulls it out in OH nullifying CO or if McCain prevails in PA.

I do not think that we will win Pennsylvania, just my gut feeling. But, I think that we will pull Ohio by the thinnest of margins.

I meant to say CO, my bad. If CO is won by the GOP than it looks like Gore and Kerry states for the Dems.

[bgwah]

Unlikely but not too outrageous to suggest he may win with Ohio and not Colorado.

Colorado is looking to be the election-decider this year...

[opebo]

His chances of winning Colorado are not very good - maybe 25% or so.  But his chances of winning the election without it are even less.

who Obama or McCain?

Obama of course.  The black candidate.  McCain the white has the clear advantage.

[Sbane]

No he cannot and neither can MCcain. Obama should really focus on this state like no other. Nevada and New Mexico should be a good place to visit as well. He should also put in a lot of effort to create a huge GOTV effort in NV. That state has a lot of new people and could act surprisingly.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yup, but it's unlikely.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Yup, but it's unlikely.

Agreed. However, if Obama loses both Nevada and Colorao to McCain on Election Night he'll need to win either Ohio and Virginia to become 44th President of the United States. Although Obama and McCain are neck-and-neck in both of those states, I have a feeling that McCain will increase his lead over Obama in Ohio and Virginia (though I believe that Obama will narrowly carry Virginia on Election Night) in the coming weeks of the campaign thus increasing the chances of Obama's likeability of winning the White House without Colorado and Nevada.

[J. J.]

Obama also has to worry about NM, one of the closer states.  It has been "lean Obama," but that might change.

OH and VA are looking increasingly like a Mccain victory.

[Vsanto5]

He needs CO, without it Obama and/or McCain will lose the election.  McCain needs CO to win the election period.

[Zarn]

Both can win without it. McCain is just much more likely to win without it. He has a lot of opportunities elsewhere.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Obama can easily win without CO. There's no reason why if he loses CO, he wouldn't be able to win OH or VA. Nevertheless, I do not expect him to lose CO at this time.

[Ronnie]

     Obama can easily win without CO. There's no reason why if he loses CO, he wouldn't be able to win OH or VA. Nevertheless, I do not expect him to lose CO at this time.

The reason is that Colorado will be closer to the national average than OH or VA will be.  If Obama loses CO, he will almost certainly lose VA and OH.

[Sbane]

     Obama can easily win without CO. There's no reason why if he loses CO, he wouldn't be able to win OH or VA. Nevertheless, I do not expect him to lose CO at this time.

How is that? I doubt Obama will lose either MI or PA while winning CO. I guess if Mccain takes NM,NH and NV, that would be a way. Pretty unlikely though. Obama could still win OH,FL or VA. He wins just one of those states and he is president. Again this is pretty unlikely as well without already having won CO.

[Sbane]

     Obama can easily win without CO. There's no reason why if he loses CO, he wouldn't be able to win OH or VA. Nevertheless, I do not expect him to lose CO at this time.

The reason is that Colorado will be closer to the national average than OH or VA will be.  If Obama loses CO, he will almost certainly lose VA and OH.

My only concern is that the Palin effect fires up the fundies in CO while Obama's populism turns off voters in the Denver suburbs. Only hispanics could save him in this situation but I doubt that happens. I hope Palin actually turns off voters in metro Denver. We will see.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama needs to try to build a EV count that doesn't rely on OH and VA, since I mirror many responses here, they will be close.

So Gore + NH + NV = 269. So assuming Obama doesn't win OH or VA, CO will be absolutely VITAL.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama needs to try to build a EV count that doesn't rely on OH and VA, since I mirror many responses here, they will be close.

So Gore + NH + NV = 269. So assuming Obama doesn't win OH or VA, CO will be absolutely VITAL.

269 = Obama wins in the House unless the Democrats lose 2 state delegations (but the Republicans don't gain 5), in which case Biden wins in the Senate, unless the Democrats lose the Senate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama needs to try to build a EV count that doesn't rely on OH and VA, since I mirror many responses here, they will be close.

So Gore + NH + NV = 269. So assuming Obama doesn't win OH or VA, CO will be absolutely VITAL.

269 = Obama wins in the House unless the Democrats lose 2 state delegations (but the Republicans don't gain 5), in which case Biden wins in the Senate, unless the Democrats lose the Senate.

I know, a win's a win. But I think that's the LEAST preferable to result in that.

[pepper11]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?