538.com map

[Sbane]

Illinois? Really? Illinois?

You sure?

Well you have to remember Kerry only won the state by 10 points. I doubt Obama is going to have a huge impact on that number. Same thing with AZ as it also voted for Bush by 10 points. We can expect them to swing towards Obama and Mccain but it won't be that big of an impact.

Edit: Moving AZ now in the middle of the Mccain bounce is a bit weird.

[Ronnie]

Hey lookie here, PA is back into the conceivable tipping point state column.  Woohoo!

[KeyKeeper]

09/13/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 259
Toss-up: 14



Changes in Sen. McCain's direction[/b]

SD: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
IA: Likely Obama to Leans Obama
MD: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
PA: Likely Obama to Leans Obama
NY: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
CT: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
MA: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
ME: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
MI: Safe Obama to Likely Obama


Changes in Sen. Obama's direction[/b]

ND: Safe McCain to Likely McCain


I'm going to start something new tonight. From this date onward I will also post 538 Regression results too. If you look on their web-site that is how they get there EV numbers. [/i]

This is the key I am using:
.1-4%: 30%
5-9%: 40%
10-15%:60%
16 and up: 80%

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 291
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 247

[Mr. Morden]

I love 538's wonderful sensitivity...last week or so, Obama was given a >70% chance to win.  Now it's back to 52%, when nothing fundamental has really changed in the race.

538 doesn't care about the "fundamentals" of the race.  It's just designed to reflect whatever the current polling says.  The polling has shifted noticeably in McCain's direction, so 538 is going to reflect that.  The "percentage chance of winning" isn't really a forward projection of what's going to happen (in the same sense as, say, Intrade).  It's just a computation of the probability of each candidate winning if the voting were to line up with the current poll results, and their respective uncertainties.

[muon2]

Illinois? Really? Illinois?

You sure?

538 uses 95% as their cutoff for "solid" and 80-95% for "likely". Personally, given their methodology, I would have used 90% instead of 95% as the cut off. That would keep IL is the solid despite poll fluctuations that  allow IL to drop to 92% in their projection. However, I'm not privy to the rationale behind the 95% cut, and I can only presume that they didn't like the balance of some states at 90%.

[minionofmidas]

I love 538's wonderful sensitivity...last week or so, Obama was given a >70% chance to win.  Now it's back to 52%, when nothing fundamental has really changed in the race.

538 doesn't care about the "fundamentals" of the race.  It's just designed to reflect whatever the current polling says.  The polling has shifted noticeably in McCain's direction, so 538 is going to reflect that.  The "percentage chance of winning" isn't really a forward projection of what's going to happen (in the same sense as, say, Intrade).  It's just a computation of the probability of each candidate winning if the voting were to line up with the current poll results, and their respective uncertainties.

Yeah, they're running a model, fed by poll data, through thousands of permutations. This is the percentage of permutations having Obama winning. Not reallyhis "percentage chance of winning", that's a misnomer.

[KeyKeeper]

09/14/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 14


In Sen. McCain's direction

AZ: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
MN: Likely Obama to Lean Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

IA: Lean Obama to Likely Obama


538 Regression Results

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 291
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 247

[Ronnie]

538 doesn't give Michigan to McCain, at least I don't think so.

[Alcon]

538 doesn't give Michigan to McCain, at least I don't think so.

Their regression model (weight 0.69) does.

[Ronnie]

538 doesn't give Michigan to McCain, at least I don't think so.

Their regression model (weight 0.69) does.

What exactly is a regression model?

[Erc]

I love 538's wonderful sensitivity...last week or so, Obama was given a >70% chance to win.  Now it's back to 52%, when nothing fundamental has really changed in the race.

538 doesn't care about the "fundamentals" of the race.  It's just designed to reflect whatever the current polling says.  The polling has shifted noticeably in McCain's direction, so 538 is going to reflect that.  The "percentage chance of winning" isn't really a forward projection of what's going to happen (in the same sense as, say, Intrade).  It's just a computation of the probability of each candidate winning if the voting were to line up with the current poll results, and their respective uncertainties.

Yeah, they're running a model, fed by poll data, through thousands of permutations. This is the percentage of permutations having Obama winning. Not reallyhis "percentage chance of winning", that's a misnomer.

Good to know.  Have never really sorted out what exactly 538 claims to do .

So, what exactly do these regression maps mean?

[J. J.]

538 doesn't give Michigan to McCain, at least I don't think so.

Their regression model (weight 0.69) does.

What exactly is a regression model?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_model

This brings back bad memories of Economics class with Dr. Hu.

[Alcon]

Good to know.  Have never really sorted out what exactly 538 claims to do .

So, what exactly do these regression maps mean?

What exactly is a regression model?

Regression Q&A 

[Ronnie]

I hope that Rasmussen will give good news to McCain in VA, or else the model may be skewed toward Obama.

I don't think that Nate Silver really looks at the legitimacy of the internals much before posting it on his site.  He should work on that.

[Erc]

Good to know.  Have never really sorted out what exactly 538 claims to do .

So, what exactly do these regression maps mean?

What exactly is a regression model?

Regression Q&A 

So, just to clear this up....given the polling data he gets (national & statewide), he fits this model of his to that data...and the 'regression map' gives the prediction of that regression model?  Pretty cool.

[Alcon]

Good to know.  Have never really sorted out what exactly 538 claims to do .

So, what exactly do these regression maps mean?

What exactly is a regression model?

Regression Q&A 

So, just to clear this up....given the polling data he gets (national & statewide), he fits this model of his to that data...and the 'regression map' gives the prediction of that regression model?  Pretty cool.

Yep, you got it.  It is pretty cool.

Just to clarify:  The regression map is actually just created (and not used on the site) from his listed regression model.  The regression data is weighted to 0.69, as you can see in the state data area on the 538 page.  Its composition of the total depends on the number of polls, their size, their age and the quality of the pollster.  In D.C., it's 100% of the prediction, because there are no reasonably recent polls.  In Ohio, his model bows heavily to poll data; the regression is weighted to 6% of the prediction.  So, the regression is only (an often-small) part of his projection model.

Poll data is also partially trend-adjusted (not sure at what weight) relative to national polls.  If anything, it's an overly conservative system -- it takes about a week, by my estimates, to fully appreciate a trend and consider it "real."

It's basically all the stuff we tried to account for in our heads, quantified, except it obviously doesn't check for whack internals.

[KeyKeeper]

09/15/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 265
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 14


In Sen. McCain's direction

WI: Likely Obama to Leans Obama

In Sen. Obam's direction

None


538 Regression Results

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 291
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 247

[tokar]

Thanks for doing this.

I like 538.com except for when it gets very hard to distinguish between the lightest of red colors or lightest of blue colors for a tossup state.

Are you just using the "XXXXX +YY.Y, Leans DEM/GOP" below each state in the right column as a means for coloring?

On another note, 9/16 polls have been posted and added to the calculations...so a new map is in order.

[KeyKeeper]

09/16/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 5


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
In Sen. Obam's direction

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


538 Regression Results

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264

[HardRCafé]

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain

I assume you mean Likely Obama to Safe Obama.

And it's Barack, not Barak.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain

I assume you mean Likely Obama to Safe Obama.

And it's Barack, not Barak.

I'm voting for Brak Obama, myself.

[daboese]

I don't think it is a good idea to take the regression results...
The electoral results, BTW at the top of the page do not come from them, but from the number of Monte-Carlo simulations they ran.

[HardRCafé]

Zorak Obama, and I'd ditch McCain in an instant.

Maybe if "Don't Touch Me" were Brak Obama's campaign theme song.  Or "I Love Almost Everybody."

[Likely Voter]

09/16/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 5


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
In Sen. Obam's direction

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


538 Regression Results

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264

Question: What is the top map...is that based on his 'projection' numbers?
Also why do the 'regression' map instead of the 'snapshot' numbers. The snapshot seems to be his guess as to where the race is today. So with 'snapshot' and 'projection' you would have their guesses at today and November

[KeyKeeper]

09/16/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barak Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 259
Toss-up: 5


In Sen. McCain's direction

CO: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
In Sen. Obam's direction

NY: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


538 Regression Results

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin(R): 274
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden(D): 264

Question: What is the top map...is that based on his 'projection' numbers?
Also why do the 'regression' map instead of the 'snapshot' numbers. The snapshot seems to be his guess as to where the race is today. So with 'snapshot' and 'projection' you would have their guesses at today and November

The regression map takes in count for things that the snapshot doesn't. Also the top map is 538.com map of the safe/likely/lean/toss-up map.