538.com map

[exopolitician]

October 10th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
NEW MEXICO from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama

In Obama's Favor:
KANSAS from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
KENTUCKY from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
MAINE from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NORTH CAROLINA from TOSS-UP to LEAN Obama
NORTH DAKOTA from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
TENNESSEE from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
WEST VIRGINIA from LEAN McCain to TOSS-UP

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 353
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158
Toss-up: 27

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (-11)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[/quote]

Kansas
Kentucky
North Dakota
Tennessee

?
Really?

+NM leaning Obama?

[tokar]

Kansas
Kentucky
North Dakota
Tennessee

?
Really?

The problem is that the last update from the other guy who did it was October 5th (just look back a page).

So things have changed a bit in 5 days.  There have been 0 polls in those states you just mentioned since the last update, but I think that Nate's model for each state takes the National Tracking Poll into the calculation.  And in 5 days Obama has gained 2-3 points (average) in the tracking polls.

In New Mexico there were a couple weak polls earlier this month at +5...making it a leaner.

I just read the numbers and text for each state on 538.com...no modifications whatsoever.

[exopolitician]

Kansas
Kentucky
North Dakota
Tennessee

?
Really?

The problem is that the last update from the other guy who did it was October 5th (just look back a page).

So things have changed a bit in 5 days.  There have been 0 polls in those states you just mentioned since the last update, but I think that Nate's model for each state takes the National Tracking Poll into the calculation.  And in 5 days Obama has gained 2-3 points (average) in the tracking polls.

That makes sense. Im still kinda confused about New Mexico though.

[Bacon King]

Obama landslide is now four times as likely as a McCain win.

[Frodo]

At least McCain still has the option of losing with some measure of honor and dignity... 

[Lunar]

[tokar]

October 11th
Polls in DE, IA, PA, OH, AL...none of which change anything.  However a new set of national tracking polls seems to have pushed both NM and ME into the Likely DEM column.  Indiana is now shown as being a toss-up, in favor of the GOP, at a margin of +0, thus the reason why it is accounted for as a GOP tally but colored in gray in the bottom map.

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
MAINE from SAFE Obama to LIKELY Obama

In Obama's Favor:
NEW MEXICO from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 353
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158
Toss-up: 27

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[TheGlobalizer]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

[tokar]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

[Lunar]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

They actually kill short-term trends with their model.

They were the only ones to accurately predict NC and IN during the primaries, which is what created the site as those predictions, using mathematical models of demographics, made them famous.

[TheGlobalizer]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

[Sbane]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

You are right because projections cannot account for the unpredictability of a campaign. But they do give a very good snapshot of where the election is currently.

[TheGlobalizer]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

You are right because projections cannot account for the unpredictability of a campaign. But they do give a very good snapshot of where the election is currently.

That's what I was getting at.  Agree that NC is play today (more accurately, was 2-4 days ago), but given demographics and current electoral pressures, I think that barring a game changer, Obama is at his apogee in NC and is unlikely to win the state.

[tokar]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

You are right because projections cannot account for the unpredictability of a campaign. But they do give a very good snapshot of where the election is currently.

That's what I was getting at.  Agree that NC is play today (more accurately, was 2-4 days ago), but given demographics and current electoral pressures, I think that barring a game changer, Obama is at his apogee in NC and is unlikely to win the state.

eh, you dont live down here.  i do.

there is a very good chance he can win the state.

[Ronnie]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

You are right because projections cannot account for the unpredictability of a campaign. But they do give a very good snapshot of where the election is currently.

That's what I was getting at.  Agree that NC is play today (more accurately, was 2-4 days ago), but given demographics and current electoral pressures, I think that barring a game changer, Obama is at his apogee in NC and is unlikely to win the state.

eh, you dont live down here.  i do.

there is a very good chance he can win the state.

I disagree.  He could win the state if the election was held today, but once Obama's lead nationally narrows a bit, NC should fall into the McCain column.  The GOP in general usually under-polls by at least a few points.

[Хahar 🤔]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

They actually kill short-term trends with their model.

They were the only ones to accurately predict NC and IN during the primaries, which is what created the site as those predictions, using mathematical models of demographics, made them famous.

Not for the BP folks.

[TheGlobalizer]

eh, you dont live down here.  i do.

there is a very good chance he can win the state.

Anecdotes win, I guess.

[Angel of Death]

An Obama win is now at 94.1%.

[Ronnie]

An Obama win is now at 94.1%.

Holy crap

[tokar]

October 11th
Polls in CA, CO, NV and your standard PA tracking poll.  Doesn't change much in terms of the model.  However Nate adjusted something regarding how the state polling relates to the national polling and that seems to have changed a lot of states.

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
ARIZONA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
KANSAS from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
KENTUCKY from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
LOUISIANA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
MISSISSIPPI from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
MONTANA from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
NORTH DAKOTA from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
SOUTH CAROLINA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
SOUTH DAKOTA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
TENNESSEE from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
TEXAS from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
WEST VIRGINIA from TOSSUP to LEAN McCain

In Obama's Favor:
FLORIDA from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
MAINE from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MICHIGAN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MINNESOTA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NEW JERSEY from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
PENNSYLVANIA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
WISCONSIN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 353 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (+5)
Toss-up: 22

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (+11)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Alaska from 6-10 to 10+
Arkansas from 3-6 to 6-10
Arizona from 6-10 to 10+
Indiana from DEM0-3 to GOP0-3
Kansas from 6-10 to 10+
Kentucky from 6-10 to 10+
Louisiana from 3-6 to 6-10
Mississippi from 3-6 to 10+
North Dakota from 3-6 to 6-10
South Carolina from 3-6 to 10+
South Dakota from 3-6 to 10+
Tennessee from 6-10 to 10+
Texas from 6-10 to 10+

Changes in Obama's favor:
Colorado from 3-6 to 6-10
Florida from 0-3 to 3-6
Iowa from 6-10 to 10+
Maine from 6-10 to 10+
Minnesota from 3-6 to 6-10
New Hampshire frmo 3-6 to 6-10
New Jersey from 6-10 to 10+
New Mexico from 3-6 to 6-10
Nevada from 0-3 to 3-6
Oregon from 6-10 to 10+
Pennsylvania from 6-10 to 10+
Virginia from 3-6 to 6-10
Washington from 6-10 to 10+
Wisconsin from 6-10 to 10+

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[elcorazon]

FLORIDA from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
MICHIGAN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MINNESOTA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NEW JERSEY from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
PENNSYLVANIA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
WISCONSIN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama

WOW!  if that's true, it's astounding.  Especially with VA, NM and CO also Likely Obama and NC and OH leaning Obama.  I wish it were November 4.

[tokar]

FLORIDA from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
MICHIGAN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MINNESOTA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NEW JERSEY from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
PENNSYLVANIA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
WISCONSIN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama

WOW!  if that's true, it's astounding.  Especially with VA, NM and CO also Likely Obama and NC and OH leaning Obama.  I wish it were November 4.

Yeah, Nate remarked how his adjustment made the reds redder and the blues bluer.

So while there were states that moved into stronger Obama territory, there were states which once thought possible pickoffs are now in the stronger McCain territory (MT, ND, etc.).

[Angel of Death]

Please distinguish the congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska in your maps from now on.

[tokar]

Please distinguish the congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska in your maps from now on.

i just copied what the guy before did...and if you look at the link of the image it actually accounts for those districts, just for some reason they are not represented in the map.  Regardless, both Maine districts are above 90% (one at 99% and listed as SAFE, the other at 93% and listed as LIKELY), while Nebraska districts are listed at 100%/SAFE for #3, 88%/LIKELY for #1, and 68%/LEAN for #2 (Omaha).

[Angel of Death]

Change "ev_c=0" to "ev_c=1".