538.com map

[tokar]

Change "ev_c=0" to "ev_c=1".

thanks.  image updated.

[tokar]

October 13th
I skipped the 12th because there really were no new polls of any significance.
Today brought a bunch of new polls in Obama's favor...too many to list.

Changes
In McCain's Favor:

In Obama's Favor:
Indiana from TOSSUP to LEAN Obama
Maine CD-2 from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
Missouri from TOSSUP to LEAN Obama
Montana from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Nevada from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
New Mexico from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
North Dakota from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Ohio from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
South Dakota from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
West Virginia from LEAN McCain to TOSSUP

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+22)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (-5)
Toss-up: 5 (-17)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (-11)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Nebraska CD2 from 0-3 to 3-6

Changes in Obama's favor:
Arizona from 10+ to 6-10
Indiana from REP0-3 to DEM0-3
Mississippi from 10+ to 6-10
Nebraska CD1 from 6-10 to 3-6
North Dakota from 6-10 to 3-6
South Carolina from 10+ to 6-10
South Dakota from 10+ to 6-10

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 14th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:

In Obama's Favor:


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (NC)
Toss-up: 5 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (+11)

Changes in McCain's favor:

Changes in Obama's favor:

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[Bacon King]

Daym.

[tokar]

Daym.

Election-Projection.net has Obama at a 99.8% chance of winning...McCain at a whopping 0.1%.  Unbelievable.

[Lunar]

Look at their national weighting scheme!  Holy crap!!

[Platypus]

Whilst I do smell a whiff of fish in the air, can someone call the fat lady shop? Just get a booking, we don't need her just yet.

[Verily]

Look at their national weighting scheme!  Holy crap!!

The tracking polls are weighted separately for each day they're released. So they get their weights divided by the length of the tracking poll. This makes for a very low weight on individual days in the low-sample tracking polls (Battleground, IBD, Diageo, to a lesser extent Zogby) because 538 also weights larger sample-size polls ahead of smaller sample-size polls.

[tokar]

October 17th
It is kind of hard to find any differences with the 538.com map everyday as not much changes day-to-day, especially when the flurry of polls which come out are in states which already favor one candidate or the other.  And, because of the lack of polling in certain states the temperature in these states become more reliant on the National Polling trends (e.g. MT, ND, WV, IN, etc.).  So they just flip back and forth between different categories (toss-up, lean, likely, safe)

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Indiana from LEAN Obama to LEAN McCain
Mississippi from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
Montana from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
Nebraska CD2 from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
Nevada from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama
New Mexico from SAFE Obama to LIKELY Obama
North Carolina from LEAN Obama to TOSS-UP
Ohio from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama

In Obama's Favor:
Arkansas from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 360 (-15)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (NC)
Toss-up: 20 (+15)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (+11)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Arizona from 6-10 to 10+
Indiana from DEM0-3 to REP0-3
Michigan from 10+ to 6-10 (just barely, its listed at +9.
Montana from 3-6 to 6-10
Nebraska CD1 from 3-6 to 6-10
Nebraska CD2 from 0-3 to 6-10
North Dakota from 0-3 to 3-6
Ohio from 3-6 to 0-3
South Carolina from 6-10 to 10+
Georgia from 3-6 to 6-10 (just barely, its listed at exactly +6.0)

Changes in Obama's favor:
Arkansas from 6-10 to 3-6

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 18th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Florida from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama
North Dakota from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain

In Obama's Favor:


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 360 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (NC)
Toss-up: 20 (+15)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (NC)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Nevada from 3-6 to 0-3

Changes in Obama's favor:

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[muon2]

The likely EV totals on 538 are showing an unusual situation with just 2 combinations accounting for over one quarter of the possible outcomes. Recently there have been a half dozen or more spikes, but this current analysis points to states basically locked in with little chance of movement.

The two spikes correspond to 364 and 375 EV. The first is Kerry + NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, OH, VA, NC, FL. The second combination adds IN to that.

[tokar]

October 20th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Arkansas from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
Louisiana from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
South Dakota from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
West Virginia from TOSS-UP to LIKELY McCain

In Obama's Favor:
North Carolina from TOSS-UP to LEAN Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+15)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (+5)
Toss-up: 0 (-20)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:
Arkansas from 3-6 to 6-10
Colorado from DEM6-10 to DEM3-6
Florida from DEM3-6 to DEM0-3
Maine CD2 from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (just barely, now at 9.8)
Pennsylvania from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (now at 9.5)
South Dakota from 6-10 to 10+
Virginia from DEM6-10 to DEM3-6 (just barely, now at 5.9)
West Virginia from 0-3 to 3-6

In Obama's favor:
Michigan from 6-10 to 10+ (just barely, now at exactly 10.0)
Montana from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6 (just barely, now at 5.9)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[Brittain33]

Either Missouri should be blue on the bottom map or the numbers are wrong... the maps are identical, the totals are off by 11.

[tokar]

Either Missouri should be blue on the bottom map or the numbers are wrong... the maps are identical, the totals are off by 11.

I think you are right ...they are identical maps in terms of ECV.

I just updated the numbers.

[tokar]

October 21th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:

In Obama's Favor:
Louisiana from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)
Toss-up: 0 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:
Michigan from DEM10+ to DEM6-10
Montana from 3-6 to 6-10
West Virginia from 3-6 to 6-10

In Obama's favor:
Georgia from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6
Virginia from 3-6 to 6-10

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[??????????]

Seems like the race is starting to swing back around. Could be good news if McCain peaks around election day.

[tokar]

Seems like the race is starting to swing back around. Could be good news if McCain peaks around election day.

Only because it was unrealistic for anyone to believe that Obama would maintain +10 average national numbers.  Nate's model takes the National Tracker Average into account when projecting each state.  It has a profound effect on leaner states (see Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc.).

Without sufficient polling in states, the state starts to depend more on the National tracker average.  With the current lull in Pennsylvania polling, except for the lowly weighted Muhlenberg tracker, the older +13 to +15 polls lose the weight they once had and the projection starts to lean more on the national tracker average for its projected margin.
This is why Pennsylvania is still considered a "SAFE DEM" but the margin of victory has fallen by about 1.5 points off its max.  The same situation is occurring in Michigan and Minnesota (both continue to be Safe Dems but projected margin of victory has dropped like a point off its recent max).  Eventually the model will flat line (assuming no added polling)...

Is there a McCain swing in my opinion?  No.  It is just the national tracker poll average starting to show the numbers it should be showing (+10 Obama from a week ago was a little excessive in anyone's opinion).

[Firefly]

Seems like the race is starting to swing back around. Could be good news if McCain peaks around election day.

Based on the 538 map?  The only thing that's changed is Indiana back in McCain's column.

[RJ]

Seems like the race is starting to swing back around. Could be good news if McCain peaks around election day.

Based on the 538 map?  The only thing that's changed is Indiana back in McCain's column.

It's the slingshot.  Obama just peaked, now it's McCain's turn.  It's the way things work.  Right now, depending on McCain's capitalization, he could peak just in time.  Doesn't look like he'll be able to swing it back hard enough in time.

I figured McCain peaked around the start of September when it looked like this thing might actually go his way.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Seems like the race is starting to swing back around. Could be good news if McCain peaks around election day.

Based on the 538 map?  The only thing that's changed is Indiana back in McCain's column.

It's the slingshot.  Obama just peaked, now it's McCain's turn.  It's the way things work.  Right now, depending on McCain's capitalization, he could peak just in time.  Doesn't look like he'll be able to swing it back hard enough in time.

I figured McCain peaked around the start of September when it looked like this thing might actually go his way.

Maybe so, but he's peaking again, meaning he'll be on the upswing come election day. I doubt it makes any difference, though. It may enable him to hold Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Indiana.

[tokar]

October 22nd

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
West Virginia from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain

In Obama's Favor:


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)
Toss-up: 0 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:

In Obama's favor:
South Dakota from GOP10+ to GOP6-10

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[Ronnie]

Nate Silver is beginning to piss me off.  He weighted the Big Ten polls way too high, which resulted in Obama gaining a whole sh**tload of ground.

[Workers' Friend]

Nate Silver is beginning to piss me off.  He weighted the Big Ten polls way too high, which resulted in Obama gaining a whole sh**tload of ground.

My response to the map:

Piece of p*ss.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Nate Silver is beginning to piss me off.  He weighted the Big Ten polls way too high, which resulted in Obama gaining a whole sh**tload of ground.

My response to the map:

Piece of p*ss.

Well the same can be said about your prediction map. But Nate puts polls in a database in it puts this out.

[Verily]

Nate Silver is beginning to piss me off.  He weighted the Big Ten polls way too high, which resulted in Obama gaining a whole sh**tload of ground.

Big Ten was weighted just as high when they released quite McCain-friendly polls a month or so ago. And they're actually not weighted any higher than average.