Here's where we were a month ago:
Here's where we are now:
375-163 is about the maximum bleeding I can see for McCain losing support.
People are expecting Palin to fall flat on her face tonight, but I think she will at least hold her own...she knows the pressure she's under
So if Palin flops, I expect the EC outlook to stay unchanged, but if she does well, and McCain's numbers rebound a little to a 3% deficit, then this is what the map could/should/will probably look like:
At the heighth of Obama's polling, he picks up North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida. If momentum shifts toward McCain this month, then NC and IN are easily put back into the red column, along with Missouri, and then Florida. Nevada is anyone's guess, but I think would pull that one out.
Senate races:
Dems pick up AK, CO, NM, VA, NH to start with. OR, and NC look like they will be as well. If it gets really bad, MN goes, and if it's beyond annihilation, KY, ME, and MS go too.
Governor races:
Missouri = Dem pick-up
North Carolina = 50/50 shot right now. That IS the only shot we have of picking up ANY race out of any three categories (Pres, Senate, Gov)
