Polling Gone Haywire? What's going on in Florida.

[Torie]

Fort Lauderdale too, I believe.  You know, the I-4 corridor.

That would be Daytona Beach... Ft. Lauderdale is as blue as it gets.

I am not sure about that, as to Ft. Lauderdale. It may be the one more marginal areas in a heavily Dem zone. It is not in the I-4 corridor however.

Edit: Ft. Lauderdale went 61-39 for Kerry.

[Sam Spade]

Fort Lauderdale too, I believe.  You know, the I-4 corridor.

That would be Daytona Beach... Ft. Lauderdale is as blue as it gets.

Doesn't matter whether it's blue or red.  Has to do with performance compared to Bush.

It's also very much not in the I-4 corridor, which is what makes your above quoted statement confusing.

Ok, then Daytona Beach.  But you get the idea. 

[Lief 🗽]

Joe Biden was an exceptionally good pick for the state, while Palin, especially with the Buchanan-smears and the fundamentalism, is not. It's definitely a toss-up at this point, and I'm close to saying that it'll be easier for Obama to get over 270 with Florida than with Ohio.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Joe Biden was an exceptionally good pick for the state, while Palin, especially with the Buchanan-smears and the fundamentalism, is not. It's definitely a toss-up at this point, and I'm close to saying that it'll be easier for Obama to get over 270 with Florida than with Ohio.

Jews don't like the Christian Right. Talk of Christian prayer in public schools puts them off for some reason. Plus people have this idea that they're hawkish on foreign policy, when that really only applies directly to Israel. They're more likely to oppose the War in Iraq, for instance.

[cinyc]

I suspect that Florida may be one of those states most susceptible to the Bradley/Wilder effect.  It's the oldest state in the country, full of white ethnic retirees.   Unfortunately, the state wasn't contested in the primaries and I can't test this theory versus the primary polls.

[Ronnie]

I just can't see Florida flipping to Obama in a 50-50 election.  Maybe if Obama wins by 5 points, but not when the race is tied.

[Torie]

This is what 538 has to say:

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The problem with all of this, is that Bush carried the state by 3.5% more than the nation, and he didn't appeal to social liberals. And I don't think Palin negates McCain's appeal among neocon types. Frankly, that is ludicrous. Jews might be freaked if Palin can be tarred as a Jew hater enabler. Good luck.

[Vsanto5]

Is McCain running ads as much as Obama?  I really don't know, but it seems to me that Ohio has a large Appalachia effect and it swings favorably in McCain's favor that is why we have Ohio McCain +10 or +5 or something and the large concentration of the Obama voters are going to come from the Northeast and that is where he will do exceptionally well. 

Floridian older voters on the other hand have lots of TV watching time and thus are able to make judgments based on the facts and the climate of the election.  2004 was a much bigger time for Republicans to continue the war and make their case for it on a national stage.  This made Florida an easier target for Bush and that is why he, I believe, he won.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This is what 538 has to say:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The problem with all of this, is that Bush carried the state by 3.5% more than the nation, and he didn't appeal to social liberals. And I don't think Palin negates McCain's appeal among neocon types. Frankly, that is ludicrous. Jews might be freaked if Palin can be tarred as a Jew hater enabler. Good luck.

Where do people get this idea that all Jews are neocons? I mean yeah, a few academics are, but by and large they're much more likely to disapprove of military action than the public at large. Also, in the 2006 election, when Iraq was one of the main issues, the Jewish vote went even more heavily Democratic than it normally does.

[Lunar]

Elderly Jews are often very hawkish when it comes to Middle-Eastern policy, or at least a large portion of them.  Why?  Because most Middle-Eastern states are Israel's overt or de facto enemies.  This isn't a crazy assertion.

[Brittain33]

Fort Lauderdale too, I believe.  You know, the I-4 corridor.

That would be Daytona Beach... Ft. Lauderdale is as blue as it gets.

Doesn't matter whether it's blue or red.  Has to do with performance compared to Bush.

I'm sorry, to be clearer: Ft. Lauderdale is in South Florida, about 200 miles from I-4.

[Brittain33]

The problem with all of this, is that Bush carried the state by 3.5% more than the nation, and he didn't appeal to social liberals. And I don't think Palin negates McCain's appeal among neocon types. Frankly, that is ludicrous. Jews might be freaked if Palin can be tarred as a Jew hater enabler. Good luck.

My mother shifted to Obama, unexpectedly, in part because of Palin's church welcoming Jews for Jesus a few weeks ago to the pulpit. You can not underestimate how much that group infuriates some people; if it helps, imagine how some Freepers react to the LDS church, which makes a more nuanced claim to being a form of Christianity while, some argue, violating the rules.

She didn't like Jeremiah Wright, either.

[Brittain33]

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Florida was hit by four hurricanes in 2004 and Bush directed FEMA to aim cash at that state with a firehose. People got checks in Miami-Dade County who had reported minimal damage to their homes. For about 10 months, the Bush Administration had a reputation for effectively dealing with this kind of crisis, and most of the country was oblivious to Florida's problems. At the same time, the construction economy in Florida was very hot and further juiced by rebuilding.

The construction sector in that state has absolutely cratered. Insurance costs are up. It's a much more miserable place. I don't think that swings the state to Obama, but it sets a contrast with '04, when it was the anti-Ohio.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Elderly Jews are often very hawkish when it comes to Middle-Eastern policy, or at least a large portion of them.  Why?  Because most Middle-Eastern states are Israel's overt or de facto enemies.  This isn't a crazy assertion.

Jews, even older Jews, aren't a single-issue voting bloc.

[Lunar]

And Lunar finally makes a perfectly accurate prediction!

McCain is dropping 1.1 million in Florida, announced today.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/677890.html

On Politico too.

McCain and the Republican National Committee held out until about one week ago when a joint fundraising committee dropped about $1.1 million in the state, according to media analyst Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG. Tracey said Obama has recently narrowed his advertising campaign to Central Florida, a bastion of uncommitted voters.

''There's no reason to spend the money if they can't move the needle,'' said Tracey, who pegged Obama's investment since June 20 at $9 million. ``Florida may be kind of frozen right now . . . If there's a late break of undecided voters there's not much they can do with advertising dollars right now.''

McCain's new ad, which is running in Tampa, Orlando, West Palm Beach and Jacksonville, claims Obama and the Democratic leaders in Congress will raise taxes and thwart offshore oil drilling. ''It's not change; it's more of the same,'' the ad says. ``Obama and his liberal allies. Not ready to lead.''

Obama's ads on local television aim to yoke McCain to President Bush.

''People are upset with the current Republican leadership, but they don't want change for change's sake,'' said state Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff of Fort Lauderdale, a leading McCain supporter in Florida. 'The feedback I get from what I consider swing voters on Obama is, `Great rhetoric, great speech, no substance.' There's still not a comfort level.''

Florida Republicans have been mocking Obama for outspending McCain and predicted he will retreat from the state next month if he doesn't gain the lead.

''It's hard to imagine a presidential election where Florida doesn't play a key role, but if it breaks one way or the other, it may not in the end,'' Tracey said.

FLORIDA NOT NEEDED?

Obama's own advisors have said he can win the White House without Florida by flipping other Republican-leaning states.

Yet he spent more money in Florida over the summer than anywhere else after months of steering clear of the state's unauthorized early primary. Described as the biggest campaign by a Democrat in Florida, Obama has hired an estimated 350 campaign workers across the state -- a fraction of McCain's operation.

''The commitment to Florida will only increase,'' said Kirk Wagar, Obama's fundraising chairman in Florida. ``There's a commitment for other media, but the timing isn't right now.''

In another sign of Obama's sights on Florida, his campaign dispatched ex-rival Hillary Clinton on Monday to shore up support for the Democratic ticket in Kissimmee and Tampa. It was Clinton's first public appearance on Obama's behalf since Sarah Palin became the first woman on the Republican national ticket.

Obama's camp also sent out a press release Monday reinforcing his support for a national catastrophic insurance fund spearheaded by two South Florida members of Congress. McCain opposes a national pool to back up homeowners in the event of a devastating hurricane.

Both candidates are planning to visit Florida over the next 10 days. McCain is slated to attend a fundraiser at the Hotel Inter-Continental Miami on Monday, while Obama has a Sept. 19 reception at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables. Other events that will be open to the public are expected.

PALIN IS COMING

Perhaps the hottest ticket these days, though, is to see Palin, the little-known governor of Alaska who was catapulted to the national stage last week.

She's supposed to work Florida's fundraising circuit in mid-October.

''I'm really excited because she's appearing four places in Florida and one of them is at my house,'' said Fort Lauderdale attorney Scott Rothstein. ``She's definitely not anyone to be taken lightly.''

Since choosing Palin, the McCain campaign has veered away from emphasizing his experience to portraying him and Palin as ''mavericks'' who have challenged the Washington status quo.

Obama is pushing back in a new ad -- which Florida voters can see on national cable -- that asks, ``Politicians lying about their records? You don't call that maverick. You call it more of the same.''

[Lunar]

Mason Dixon shows Obama with a two-point lead today.  Giving this a bump since this thread's a better platform than "New FL Poll" for Vorlon to post his conversation with MD's pollster.  Anxiously waiting.

[J. J.]

Fairly large number of undecided voters and M-D doesn't push them.

[Lief 🗽]

Fairly large number of undecided voters and M-D doesn't push them.

And why would undecided overwhelmingly favor McCain?

[Lunar]

Obama and McCain's campaigns have certainly both given the state front-row treatment.  Palin hosting a huge rally there this weekend, McCain spending millions, Obama and Biden both visiting recently..


In Florida, where the jump is perhaps most dramatic, Obama's spending has climbed to $1.9 million for the week ending on Sept. 21, from $1.2 million the week before that and $807,000 the week before that. Obama has closed in on McCain in the polls. 

[Aizen]

Fairly large number of undecided voters and M-D doesn't push them.

And why would undecided overwhelmingly favor McCain?

J.J.'s Sixth Rule of Elections

[Meeker]

Fairly large number of undecided voters and M-D doesn't push them.

And why would undecided overwhelmingly favor McCain?

One theory is that the undecideds are mostly closet-racist Democrats who don't want to tell a pollster they're actually supporting McCain.

Didn't undecideds break overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primaries?

[Verily]

Fairly large number of undecided voters and M-D doesn't push them.

And why would undecided overwhelmingly favor McCain?

One theory is that the undecideds are mostly closet-racist Democrats who don't want to tell a pollster they're actually supporting McCain.

Didn't undecideds break overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primaries?

They did in some places and didn't in others. In Florida, undecided voters broke pretty strongly for Obama, although the situation there was somewhat unusual.

[Lunar]

Overall in the primaries, even separating out the caucuses, Obama did ~2-3% better than the polls indicated on average.  Organization means a lot more in lower-turnout affairs though.

[Verily]

Overall in the primaries, even separating out the caucuses, Obama did ~2-3% better than the polls indicated on average.

It's somewhat problematic to use the polls for the February 5 states, though, which were sparingly polled and mostly prior to Iowa or at least South Carolina.

[J. J.]

Fairly large number of undecided voters and M-D doesn't push them.

And why would undecided overwhelmingly favor McCain?

In some cases the Bradley Effect, in some cases just that they have a better comfort level with McCain, but if you look at some polls that do push the undecided voters, McCain closes a bit.

As has been pointed out, that is also what the Obama campaign is considering.  That might Obama's Sixth Rule of Elections.