Pennsylvania

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

Sane laws on alcohol sales.

Thank God it does. My city, I believe, has the most bars per-capita in the state.... or was it the nation?

I doubt it's the nation. Myrtle, MN has one bar per ever 33.5 people, and one bar per every 22.33 people if you include the non-alcoholic strip club.

[Keystone Phil]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

Sane laws on alcohol sales.

Eh, I don't care for our laws on alcohol sales either and that's coming from a non-drinker. That being said, I don't really care enough to "Thank God" that other states have better laws on the subject.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Boy, this thread sure has gotten somewhere productive. 

Too bad my views of Pennsylvania consist of Phil, a bitchy lady at Burger King, nothingness, and random psychic reading 'studios' all over the place.

Hardly a good representation

[Nym90]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

[memphis]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

[Rococo4]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

In the end, barring McCain relaly pulling away, it is just tough territory for the GOP to make up what they lost by in 2004.  I think its gonna be tough to match it, let alone surpass.

[Brittain33]

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

Don't be so mean to Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

That's an excellent way to analyze a Presidential race. Way to consider all other relevant factors.

[Brittain33]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

That's an excellent way to analyze a Presidential race. Way to consider all other relevant factors.

Your analysis is based on extrapolating from conditions in one small part of the state and handwaving about numbers. I think looking at four congressional districts, a senate race, 20 years of history, and registration trends is superior to talking to older white Democrats in your neighborhood when we know McCain is doing disproportionately well among old people anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

PA has gone for the Dems every election for 20 years and the Dems just gained 4 congressional seats in the state. I really don't see PA swinging GOP.

That's an excellent way to analyze a Presidential race. Way to consider all other relevant factors.

Your analysis is based on extrapolating from conditions in one small part of the state and handwaving about numbers. I think looking at four congressional districts, a senate race, 20 years of history, and registration trends is superior to talking to older white Democrats in your neighborhood when we know McCain is doing disproportionately well among old people anyway.

"One small part of the state" which is a third of Obama's most supportive major city in the state.

I love how you can discredit that McCain is doing "disproportionately well" among older people, saying it is almost meaningless...in the state with the second highest senior population in the country.

Good job!

[Brittain33]

I love how you can discredit that McCain is doing "disproportionately well" among older people, saying it is almost meaningless...in the state with the second highest senior population in the country.

There's no way I can respond to this without insulting your intelligence, so I'll ask you to read it again, taking into account the words "we know" and asking yourself if that means I'm "discrediting" anything.

[Keystone Phil]

I love how you can discredit that McCain is doing "disproportionately well" among older people, saying it is almost meaningless...in the state with the second highest senior population in the country.

There's no way I can respond to this without insulting your intelligence, so I'll ask you to read it again, taking into account the words "we know" and asking yourself if that means I'm "discrediting" anything.

You're brushing off that white seniors are important enough to swing the state. You're saying, "Well, we know they already favor McCain so who cares?" I bet many of them are officially listed as "undecided" in these polls though.

[Brittain33]

You're brushing off that white seniors are important enough to swing the state.

I'm quoting the polls as showing that. You're brushing off the polls because of anecdotal evidence that is likely already calculated in.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on what, other than that's what you'd like to believe? Seriously?

[Keystone Phil]

I'm quoting the polls as showing that. You're brushing off the polls because of anecdotal evidence that is likely already calculated in.

Based on what, other than that's what you'd like to believe? Seriously?

Well then you tell me - who makes up that insane number of undecided voters? If Obama was leading in PA with over 50% of the vote, I'd concede the point. However, the guy is usually stuck around 45%.

[Brittain33]

Well then you tell me - who makes up that insane number of undecided voters? If Obama was leading in PA with over 50% of the vote, I'd concede the point. However, the guy is usually stuck around 45%.

I have no idea, but that's a more defensible answer than assigning them to a specific age and party group, unless the polls are broken down that way.

Surely some Pennsylvania polls have cross tabs showing undecideds by age and party.

FWIW, African-Americans regularly poll much higher undecided numbers than the general population.

[Keystone Phil]

FWIW, African-Americans regularly poll much higher undecided numbers than the general population.

You really think that's the case this year?

[J. J.]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

You are absolutely correct.

[Brittain33]

FWIW, African-Americans regularly poll much higher undecided numbers than the general population.

You really think that's the case this year?

It was in the primaries. I haven't looked at cross-tabs in the general.

[elcorazon]

Okay, since everyone on the board seems to disagree about Pennsylvania I think it would be cool to get a fairly detailed analysis about the demographic outlook of the state and politics. How much will the suburbs trend towards Obama this time around, will they trend towards him at all? How will Dauphin County vote this time around? How is Obama looking in Pittsburgh and around Erie?

lol.  you mean cuz Phil talks a lot.  Saying everyone disagrees about PA is like saying everyone disagrees about NC.

[Keystone Phil]

Okay, since everyone on the board seems to disagree about Pennsylvania I think it would be cool to get a fairly detailed analysis about the demographic outlook of the state and politics. How much will the suburbs trend towards Obama this time around, will they trend towards him at all? How will Dauphin County vote this time around? How is Obama looking in Pittsburgh and around Erie?

lol.  you mean cuz Phil talks a lot.  Saying everyone disagrees about PA is like saying everyone disagrees about NC.

That's really mature.

You're right. Almost everyone here is in agreement on basically everything. Like how Palin was a terrible choice and how she'd hurt McCain.

[Ty440]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

You are absolutely correct.

For me Pennsylvania was the ultimate test of Obama's strength and weakness. Remember it was almost like a genereal election campaign is was like  what 6 weeks between primaries.
Obama spent time ,  outspent Hillary 3 to one , he let them see the Obama charm up close and personal

And what did we learn in the Pennsylvania primary .. This is what I learned Obama is weak. He cannot win the demographics  that he must win big in November.
He cannot win Reagan Democrats. He cannot expand his base. Despite outspending Mrs. Clinton two-or-three to one, Obama's base is elite white liberals, college students  and blacks.
 
He couldn't  get the  the Reagan Democrats, the blue-collar people, the clingers; the bitter clingers, the guns and religion crowd. They heard it and they also hear Jeremiah Wright when he talks and they hear about Bill Ayers. It is interesting, you know, the media kept  reporting time and time again here how Obama was  exciting so many voters; how he is bringing all these new voters out.

 But he kept losing! Obviously Hillary's base was bigger and was more excited than Obama's  but you wouldn't have known it

[elcorazon]

Okay, since everyone on the board seems to disagree about Pennsylvania I think it would be cool to get a fairly detailed analysis about the demographic outlook of the state and politics. How much will the suburbs trend towards Obama this time around, will they trend towards him at all? How will Dauphin County vote this time around? How is Obama looking in Pittsburgh and around Erie?

lol.  you mean cuz Phil talks a lot.  Saying everyone disagrees about PA is like saying everyone disagrees about NC.

That's really mature.

You're right. Almost everyone here is in agreement on basically everything. Like how Palin was a terrible choice and how she'd hurt McCain.

Keep at it, hack.

no one said we agree on everything.  I see threads all the time where Phil talks about how the Republicans can win in PA, but most seem to view it as at least lean obama.  same with nc.  Josh thinks it's competitive, but most here think it's likely to be mccain country.

I was struck by the comment of the level of disagreement about PA and it struck me as humorous.

no offense meant, phil.

not sure what the palin thing has to do with anything.  i don't recall criticizing the pick, politically.

and i've been on record for awhile predicting a mccain victory.  I'd still put the whole election as a tossup right now.