Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

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Again, people make the mistake of thinking that Philly alone = PA win. You have to take Philly by a massive margin AND Western PA by a decent amount.

I predict we're looking at a record turnout and record margin of victory in Philadelphia. That will be enough when you consider that native son Biden will help the ticket fare at least as well in western PA as Kerry/Edwards four years ago.

Note to everyone who still uses this argument - Obama will seriously struggle in areas of the city. He will not make up for his losses by boosting black turnout. As noted, black turnout was basically at its peak in 2004 anyway and registrations probably haven't increased by enough to make up for it either.

[J. J.]

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Again, people make the mistake of thinking that Philly alone = PA win. You have to take Philly by a massive margin AND Western PA by a decent amount.

I predict we're looking at a record turnout and record margin of victory in Philadelphia. That will be enough when you consider that native son Biden will help the ticket fare at least as well in western PA as Kerry/Edwards four years ago.

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."

You just violated the rule. 

In the primary, I expected a huge black turnout; it wasn't there.

[TeePee4Prez]

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Again, people make the mistake of thinking that Philly alone = PA win. You have to take Philly by a massive margin AND Western PA by a decent amount.

I predict we're looking at a record turnout and record margin of victory in Philadelphia. That will be enough when you consider that native son Biden will help the ticket fare at least as well in western PA as Kerry/Edwards four years ago.

Note to everyone who still uses this argument - Obama will seriously struggle in areas of the city. He will not make up for his losses by boosting black turnout. As noted, black turnout was basically at its peak in 2004 anyway and registrations probably haven't increased by enough to make up for it either.

Again, I don't think Obama's struggles will be as bad as you think.  Yes, he is part black and it kinda hurts.  Not entirely.  I think you're overestimating the racial strife in the Northeast which is nowhere near what it was in the 1980s or 1990s for that matter.

[Keystone Phil]

Again, I don't think Obama's struggles will be as bad as you think.  Yes, he is part black and it kinda hurts.  Not entirely.  I think you're overestimating the racial strife in the Northeast which is nowhere near what it was in the 1980s or 1990s for that matter.

It's not as bad as then but it's silly to think that it isn't still a serious problem here. The local Dems know it. Don't believe "McCain/GOP hack" Phil? Fine. Do a little reading up on local candidates and their plans for the fall campaign. They wouldn't do some of the things that they're doing just for the hell of it.

[J. J.]

What about the fact that the Democratic edge in registrations in Pennsylvania over Republicans is up by more than 500,000 from 2006 to 2008? Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 600,000 the day that Santorum lost by almost 20 points, and now it's up by 1.1 million.

We know that registration rough numbers often are deceiving, but does anyone want to argue that this number is meaningless because more than a half-million of those people are Hillary voters who are now going to vote for McCain--on top of all the Hillary-McCain voters who were registered Dems prior to 2006. (I'm sure there's some bad assumptions there, but you take the point. This number is a bad sign for Republicans, the only debate is how much of a bad sign it is.)

McCain either needs to cut pretty deeply with down market whites, or carriage trade seculars (RINO's now Dems since the Democrat primary has become meaningful now in Montco and envirions, or RINO's, or cafeteria RINO's), or a combo of the two, or it is curtains in PA. I keep saying that, but I can't get anyone yet, to say, you know, that is very perspicacious of you! 

I want to see some polling.  The Palin choice could play very well in PA, especially with "down market whites."  Conversely, it might not help enough.

Biden definitely outdoes Palin in PA though moreso in the East. 

I do this economics and the War will outdo the black-white issue in the end, but not entirely.

Phila media market, yes.  The whole state, maybe not.

[memphis]

As much as I hate to give this overplayed state its due, I'll give my two cents. Obama is up here in every poll. Nuff said.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What about the fact that the Democratic edge in registrations in Pennsylvania over Republicans is up by more than 500,000 from 2006 to 2008? Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 600,000 the day that Santorum lost by almost 20 points, and now it's up by 1.1 million.

We know that registration rough numbers often are deceiving, but does anyone want to argue that this number is meaningless because more than a half-million of those people are Hillary voters who are now going to vote for McCain--on top of all the Hillary-McCain voters who were registered Dems prior to 2006. (I'm sure there's some bad assumptions there, but you take the point. This number is a bad sign for Republicans, the only debate is how much of a bad sign it is.)

McCain either needs to cut pretty deeply with down market whites, or carriage trade seculars (RINO's now Dems since the Democrat primary has become meaningful now in Montco and envirions, or RINO's, or cafeteria RINO's), or a combo of the two, or it is curtains in PA. I keep saying that, but I can't get anyone yet, to say, you know, that is very perspicacious of you! 

I want to see some polling.  The Palin choice could play very well in PA, especially with "down market whites."  Conversely, it might not help enough.

Biden definitely outdoes Palin in PA though moreso in the East. 

I do this economics and the War will outdo the black-white issue in the end, but not entirely.

You really overstate Biden's appeal.

And other people are really overstating Palin's appeal. How about we just admit that running mates don't have that much effect leave it at that?

[Keystone Phil]

And other people are really overstating Palin's appeal. How about we just admit that running mates don't have that much effect leave it at that?

While I believe that Palin is a bit of a different case, I basically agree that they don't have that much of an impact. I've said that plenty of times before.

As much as I hate to give this overplayed state its due, I'll give my two cents. Obama is up here in every poll. Nuff said.

Right. Just like how Obama had been beating or was tied with McCain in every national poll until this weekend. Election over, right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem is there is no logic behind that normally Democratic voters are expressing hatred for Obama in real life yet are lying in posters and saying they'll vote for him. So if the latter is happening, Obama is clearly making it up somewhere else.

[Keystone Phil]

The problem is there is no logic behind that normally Democratic voters are expressing hatred for Obama in real life yet are lying in posters and saying they'll vote for him. So if the latter is happening, Obama is clearly making it up somewhere else.

People don't lie to pollsters but tell their close friends and family how they really feel? Uh...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem is there is no logic behind that normally Democratic voters are expressing hatred for Obama in real life yet are lying in posters and saying they'll vote for him. So if the latter is happening, Obama is clearly making it up somewhere else.

People don't lie to pollsters but tell their close friends and family how they really feel? Uh...

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

[Keystone Phil]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

Judged by a bot?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

As someone who was born in Susquehanna County I will tell you that there is more to NE PA then Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. There are the rural surronding counties where I can tell you neither Obama nor Biden will float in these areas and McCain could do better than Bush.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As someone who was born in Susquehanna County I will tell you that there is more to NE PA then Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. There are the rural surronding counties where I can tell you neither Obama nor Biden will float in these areas and McCain could do better than Bush.

Bush was a great candidate for that type of area while Kerry was horrid. McCain, not so great. Obama, not so much worse than Kerry.

[Keystone Phil]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

Judged by a bot?

Have all these polls been conducted by bots?

By the way, notice how Obama might lead McCain by a few but there are still tons of undecided voters here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

Judged by a bot?

Have all these polls been conducted by bots?

By the way, notice how Obama might lead McCain by a few but there are still tons of undecided voters here.

No but some have and there has been no noticeable difference in bot ones or not.

[J. J.]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

Judged by a bot?

Have all these polls been conducted by bots?

By the way, notice how Obama might lead McCain by a few but there are still tons of undecided voters here.

No but some have and there has been no noticeable difference in bot ones or not.

The question is, if the average voter can tell the difference between a 'bot and a person.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That really makes no sense as to why people would lie to pollsters in this case. Especially if it's just a bot.

Makes no sense? That people trust their friends and family with their real feelings and lying to someone because they don't want to be judged?

Judged by a bot?

Have all these polls been conducted by bots?

By the way, notice how Obama might lead McCain by a few but there are still tons of undecided voters here.

No but some have and there has been no noticeable difference in bot ones or not.

The question is, if the average voter can tell the difference between a 'bot and a person.

The average voter is not mentally retarded.

[Flying Dog]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

[Keystone Phil]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

[Flying Dog]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

[Keystone Phil]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

Sane laws on alcohol sales.

[Flying Dog]

How come PA gets so much attention on this forum? It's unfair. Michigan should sue for equal time.

PA gets more attention in general. It may get more serious discussion because we have an unusual amount of people from the unusually awesome Commonwealth. 

Well, Mr. I'm from a super awesome state, I counter your Catholics, blue-coller whites and blue-haired lady's with Michigan's large Dutch Reformist population, some yuppers, and some racially charged blacks and whites from Flint.

I'm sorry...what was superior about your state?

Sane laws on alcohol sales.

Thank God it does. My city, I believe, has the most bars per-capita in the state.... or was it the nation?