Fukuda Resigns

[Јas]

TOKYO (AFP) - Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on Monday announced his resignation, calling for a fresh start after a troubled year in power that saw bitter fighting with the opposition.

Fukuda did not immediately speak of new elections, opening the way for a new leadership election within the ruling party. General elections must be held by September next year. The likely front-runner to take over the post is Taro Aso, a former foreign minister who is known for being both more charismatic and more conservative than the 72-year-old Fukuda.

Fukuda said he made the decision in light of the tense situation in parliament. The opposition Democratic Party won control of one house last year and has aggressively fought Fukuda's agenda.

- Agence France-Presse

[Verily]

Taro Aso will probably be the new PM. Which is both good news and bad news for the LDP. They'll never win an election with a hard-right leader like Aso, but they'll also probably prevent themselves from collapsing completely. It'll be interesting to see if Aso tries a snap election before his cabinet can become as unpopular as Abe's and Fukuda's were. (For those keeping score, this will make four PMs in one Parliament for Japan.)

Aso is also Catholic, which is interesting. Makes me wonder what New Komeito thinks of him.

[minionofmidas]

Aso is also Catholic, which is interesting. Makes me wonder what New Komeito thinks of him.

Really?

I haven't really heard anything about Japan since Fukuda's selection. What's he done wrong?

[Verily]

Aso is also Catholic, which is interesting. Makes me wonder what New Komeito thinks of him.

Really?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24280184-26397,00.html

"A member of Japan's Catholic minority and related by marriage to the Imperial Family, Mr Aso is currently the LDP's most popular senior MP."

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He hasn't done anything, actually. Which is part of why he's unpopular. There were some small things, like a very unpopular plan to reform senior citizen benefits (probably economically necessary in a rapidly aging society like Japan but extraordinarily unpopular with the LDP's elderly base).

[Cubby]

Good. The LDP has been in power far too long. Fukuda has been better than Shinzo Abe, but he wasn't getting anything done, though he shouldn't get all the blame for that.

Hopefully the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) can make big inroads in the Diet. The LDP has such a huge lopsided majority in the Lower Chamber that they can't win control unless there's a tsunami of support for them (no pun intended). I don't know if I really support them because I disagree with their decision to not help re-fuel US carriers in the Afghan War. Japan has to put its past behind it and expand its military presense (within reason of course).

[Dan the Roman]

Good. The LDP has been in power far too long. Fukuda has been better than Shinzo Abe, but he wasn't getting anything done, though he shouldn't get all the blame for that.

Hopefully the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) can make big inroads in the Diet. The LDP has such a huge lopsided majority in the Lower Chamber that they can't win control unless there's a tsunami of support for them (no pun intended). I don't know if I really support them because I disagree with their decision to not help re-fuel US carriers in the Afghan War. Japan has to put its past behind it and expand its military presense (within reason of course).

Incumbency has been mattering less and less over the last few elections, and two elections ago the DPJ had 171 seats. The current LDP majority is a result of Koizumi's then popularity. Most of the recent polls have shown the DPJ between 9 and 17 points ahead. A nine point lead would win them an easy majority. A 17 point lead would give them two thirds of the diet.

[Хahar 🤔]

Aso is also Catholic, which is interesting. Makes me wonder what New Komeito thinks of him.

Really?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24280184-26397,00.html

"A member of Japan's Catholic minority and related by marriage to the Imperial Family, Mr Aso is currently the LDP's most popular senior MP."

Will the New Komeito Party agree to back his government?

[Verily]

Aso is also Catholic, which is interesting. Makes me wonder what New Komeito thinks of him.

Really?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24280184-26397,00.html

"A member of Japan's Catholic minority and related by marriage to the Imperial Family, Mr Aso is currently the LDP's most popular senior MP."

Will the New Komeito Party agree to back his government?

I have no idea, but the LDP has a majority on its own anyway. They are only in coalition with New Komeito to appease the conservative Buddhists, and New Komeito has no real power.

[ottermax]

Japanese politics are so very different from America.
I doubt the DPJ can really defeat the LDP in one election although I guess it could happen. The Japanese in general dislike taking risk, and the LDP is a huge organization. However if Aso tries to keep things together and they fall apart, the DPJ can win.

[Verily]

Japanese politics are so very different from America.
I doubt the DPJ can really defeat the LDP in one election although I guess it could happen. The Japanese in general dislike taking risk, and the LDP is a huge organization. However if Aso tries to keep things together and they fall apart, the DPJ can win.

I would just like to mention that the most recent poll I saw (from June) had the DPJ leading 52-24 (NK had 11, IIRC, and the various minor leftist parties made up the rest). The DPJ could definitely win an election in one shot. The DPJ lost a huge number of seats last time, so it's not as if they've never held a lot more seats than they do now.

[Dan the Roman]

The thing to remember about parties like the LDP is that when they lose they lose big. They don't just lose to the opposition, they fall to third party status. If the 52-24 result happens it will be the end of the LDP. Sort of what happened to the PCs in Canada in 1993. Government to oblivion.

[ottermax]

The thing to remember about parties like the LDP is that when they lose they lose big. They don't just lose to the opposition, they fall to third party status. If the 52-24 result happens it will be the end of the LDP. Sort of what happened to the PCs in Canada in 1993. Government to oblivion.

Except Japan is not Canada.

I expect the DPJ to win, but I wouldn't make it a sure thing. I just doubt that the Japanese will suddenly give up on a party that has given them prosperity and security for the past 50 years.

[Dan the Roman]

The thing to remember about parties like the LDP is that when they lose they lose big. They don't just lose to the opposition, they fall to third party status. If the 52-24 result happens it will be the end of the LDP. Sort of what happened to the PCs in Canada in 1993. Government to oblivion.

Except Japan is not Canada.

I expect the DPJ to win, but I wouldn't make it a sure thing. I just doubt that the Japanese will suddenly give up on a party that has given them prosperity and security for the past 50 years.

I don't think it will be the voters who do it. The LDP is not a real party. It has no ideology, no views, no social base. It is a giant patronage machine that has survived for 50 years on being in power for 50 years. Once you remove control of patronage, and redistrict the rural constituencies(the first task of any DPJ government) it will collapse. All the public sector unions will defect to the DPJ or whoever is in power, the party will be left without a fund-raising base, and it will break up on left-right lines.

There is no ideological gulf with the DPJ, and Ozawa himself is a former LDP bigwig, so there is no reason why it would be so hard for all of the LDP infrastructure to defect.

Japan is a 1.5 party system. There will always be a governing party. When that party loses it isn't defeated, it is superseded. And there is no need for an out of power governing party.

[Cubby]

I don't think it will be the voters who do it. The LDP is not a real party. It has no ideology, no views, no social base. It is a giant patronage machine that has survived for 50 years on being in power for 50 years. Once you remove control of patronage, and redistrict the rural constituencies(the first task of any DPJ government) it will collapse. All the public sector unions will defect to the DPJ or whoever is in power, the party will be left without a fund-raising base, and it will break up on left-right lines.

There is no ideological gulf with the DPJ, and Ozawa himself is a former LDP bigwig, so there is no reason why it would be so hard for all of the LDP infrastructure to defect.

Japan is a 1.5 party system. There will always be a governing party. When that party loses it isn't defeated, it is superseded. And there is no need for an out of power governing party.

Well thats depressing. If thats the case then one wonders why they bother with democracy at all.

[Colin]

The thing to remember about parties like the LDP is that when they lose they lose big. They don't just lose to the opposition, they fall to third party status. If the 52-24 result happens it will be the end of the LDP. Sort of what happened to the PCs in Canada in 1993. Government to oblivion.

Except Japan is not Canada.

And the PC isn't the LDP. Actually if any Canadian party mirrors the LDP it's the Liberals since the conservative parties of Canada have never been the main ruling parties.

[Verily]

The thing to remember about parties like the LDP is that when they lose they lose big. They don't just lose to the opposition, they fall to third party status. If the 52-24 result happens it will be the end of the LDP. Sort of what happened to the PCs in Canada in 1993. Government to oblivion.

Except Japan is not Canada.

And the PC isn't the LDP. Actually if any Canadian party mirrors the LDP it's the Liberals since the conservative parties of Canada have never been the main ruling parties.

Of course, the Liberals have been in and out of power plenty of times. The best example would probably be Alberta, where no party that lost power has ever won it back.

I disagree a little bit with the premise, though. There is some ideological distinction between the LDP and DPJ, mostly along lines of social politics. (For example, the DPJ has, in the past, supported opening immigration to make it easier for non-ethnic Japanese to immigrate, an idea once abhorred in Japan but now increasingly considered mainstream to deal with the aging crisis.) Moreover, I think the defeat of the LDP wouldn't herald its complete collapse, although some of its MPs would probably defect to the DPJ or maybe to a minor breakaway party such as the NPN.

[Хahar 🤔]

The LDP is just another post-WWII governing party (albeit the last remaining). A good comparison is the Christian Democrats in Italy.

[Verily]

The LDP is just another post-WWII governing party (albeit the last remaining). A good comparison is the Christian Democrats in Italy.

Sort of. They were never propped up by the US government as an anti-communist party the way parties like DC were. AFAIK, they never received any money from the CIA.

[Хahar 🤔]

The LDP is just another post-WWII governing party (albeit the last remaining). A good comparison is the Christian Democrats in Italy.

Sort of. They were never propped up by the US government as an anti-communist party the way parties like DC were. AFAIK, they never received any money from the CIA.

Interersting, considering the strength of the JCP as the anti-establishment party.

[minionofmidas]

The LDP is just another post-WWII governing party (albeit the last remaining). A good comparison is the Christian Democrats in Italy.

Sort of. They were never propped up by the US government as an anti-communist party the way parties like DC were.

Uh... yes, they were. LDP

[Verily]

The LDP is just another post-WWII governing party (albeit the last remaining). A good comparison is the Christian Democrats in Italy.

Sort of. They were never propped up by the US government as an anti-communist party the way parties like DC were.

Uh... yes, they were. LDP

Okay, maybe I should check my memory against Wikipedia next time...