FL-21/SurveyUSA: Rep. Diaz-Balart (R) in trouble, John McCain too

[Tender Branson]

Raul Martinez (D) - 48%
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R - Inc.) - 46%

Obama - 48% (Gore: 37%, Kerry: 43%)
McCain - 48% (Bush: 63%, Bush: 57%)

775 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 08/24/08 through 08/26/08, using Registration Based Sample purchased from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 632 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November.

Diaz-Balart ran unopposed in 1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, and 2002. In 2004 Diaz-Balart won with 73% of the vote. In 2006, Diaz-Balart won with 60% of the vote.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac8793ef-2899-49d0-a960-a1be2ff279b6

[Tender Branson]

That's 4 congressional district polls now and the Democrats are in a good position.

Obama is also doing considerably better than Gore/Kerry in all 4 districts ...

BTW: Accoridng to Roll Call, they will release a new poll from a competetive district each day now until the GOP convention is over ...

[Sam Spade]

Too bad SUSA (historically) can't poll Florida worth a damn.  At the risk of repeating myself concerning other polls, this looks too Democratic.

[Sam Spade]

One last thing...

Obama - 48% (Gore: 37%, Kerry: 43%)
McCain - 48% (Bush: 63%, Bush: 57%)

Your Bush 63-Gore 37 number represents the old configuration of FL-21 pre-2002, not post-2002.  The present configuration of FL-21 voted Bush 58-Gore 42 in 2000 (or at least that's what my AAP says).

[Brittain33]

My memory of Survey USA polling Florida, from 2006, checked on the web...

9/26/06
Bilirakis, 61%; Busansky, 32%, undecided, 7%

Election Day
Bilirakis 56%, Busansky, 44%

[Tender Branson]

My memory of Survey USA polling Florida, from 2006, checked on the web...

9/26/06
Bilirakis, 61%; Busansky, 32%, undecided, 7%

Election Day
Bilirakis 56%, Busansky, 44%

In 2004 they showed a close Presidential Election, when Bush won by 5. They also underestimated Crist in 2006, but got the Senate race right. In 2008, they underestimated Obama in the FL primaries ...

[HardRCafé]

Is this that mayor of Hialeah sentenced to ten years in prison?

[MaxQue]

Is this that mayor of Hialeah sentenced to ten years in prison?

Yes, but they did a new trial because of ''flawed jury instructions and blatant jury misconduct'' accordinf to Wikipedia. They did a second trial without success, the jury wasn't able to decide. They did a third trial, he was acquitted on one charges and the five others were without result since the jury was 11-1 for acquittal which is not the unanimity.

The new US attorney dropped the charges and began an inquiry on the attorney who inquired him since he was the husband of Ros-Lehtinen. And to the time of the first inquiry on Martinez, Martinez was a candidate against Ros-Lehtinen to succeed to Claude Pepper.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raul_L._Martinez