% chance obama wins virginia with kaine on the ticket

[WalterMitty]

ill say 60-65%

[??????????]

About equal to the current time.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

flip a coin.

[Sam Spade]

In a 50-50 election, it'll still lean slightly mccain.

[Lunar]

Why would Obama rubber stamp a theme that completely contradicts Kaine, for Kaine's speech: National Security and Veteran's Affairs?  It gives McCain a line of attack, is a complete mismatch, and if Obama changes the theme he will be attacked even more.  Kaine hims elf as said privately that he is pretty sure he got the "silver medal" in the vice presidential race. 

That said, VP's don't significantly change the chance of the ticket winning, at least not in obvious ways.

[Torie]

In a 50-50 election, it'll still lean slightly mccain.

I don't think they are in love with Kaine down there.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Kaine: 52.1%
No Kaine: 52%

[Eraserhead]

50% (which isn't much different from where it is now).

[Lief 🗽]

I'd say it's about 50-50 right now. Kaine makes it maybe 55 or 60%. The problem is that Kaine is strong in the areas of Virginia where Obama is already strong, whereas your Mark Warners and Jim Webbs are stronger in the more rural, conservative areas that Obama might have trouble.

[Ronnie]

Kaine has done NOTHING in VA as governor.  I doubt people will say "OMG, Kaine is from my state, so that means I'm voting Obama!!!!"

Obama may campaign more effectively in the state with Kaine by his side, but by no means will it make people in the state swing en masse to Obama.

He will have a ~40% chance to carry the state with or without Kaine on the ticket.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While most of the comments here are accurate, they apply just as equally to Pawlenty, yet many here dispute that.

Anyway, 50/50, like before.

[MODU]

Less than 50%.  Kaine has become the symbol of unnecessary taxation in the state, and adding him to the ticket will not entice swing voters to vote for Obama.