The Official FINAL Predict-a-VP Thread (Obama Edition)

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

I think Obama is cringing at the thought of picking Biden, though he may very well have to unless he wants to go with Hillary or someone who isn't popular amongst the netroots like Bayh (or unless he has a wildcard rolled up his sleeve).

Why is he horrified at the thought of Biden as his running mate?   Why, that's pretty easy.  Just take a look at this:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/sen/lib.htm

[Eraserhead]

I think Obama is cringing at the thought of picking Biden, though he may very well have to unless he wants to go with Hillary or someone who isn't popular amongst the netroots like Bayh (or unless he has a wildcard rolled up his sleeve).

Why is he horrified at the thought of Biden as his running mate?   Why, that's pretty easy.  Just take a look at this:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/sen/lib.htm

Nobody takes that list seriously.

[3Davideo]

Hey, I'm not eligible yet.

Is your name Ray Mabus?

What, you weren't referring to Mabus, Nostradamus's third incarnation of the anti-Christ?  'Cuz that's me.

[Torie]

Bayh and Portman.

[Ogre Mage]

I'm curious, what makes you think she could actually be chosen? You think we would have seen some signs that Obama was at least open to the idea by now... but that hasn't been the case.

Long post coming --

--The claim that Hillary has no chance of being selected has primarily been coming from individuals peripherally affiliated with the Obama campaign, anonymous sources within the Clinton and Obama campaigns and the Chattering Class.  Much of this is rumor, projection, and smokescreen.  I don't doubt there are many in the Obama campaign opposed to her selection, however, we really do not know what Obama and his true inner circle are thinking.  Obama and Clinton have given the press the slip before -- when they snuck away to meet at Diane Feinstein's house.  We still don't know what was discussed at that meeting.

--Obama's poll numbers peaked in June -- the month Hillary dropped out and endorsed him.  Since then they have slowly eroded.  Arguably he is still slightly ahead but in this political environment largely favoring Democrats he is running behind the party brand.  As Lanny Davis noted in his editorial for the WSJ, multiple polls show Clinton giving Obama a significant boost at the national level -- the only running mate to do so.  Clinton comfortably won the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida and at the time she dropped out her poll numbers against McCain were notably stronger than Obama's in those states.  In Michigan, an EPIC/MRI poll showed Obama performing much more strongly against McCain with Clinton at the bottom of the ticket.  What other choice could provide such a critical, multi-state boost?

--As the race has tightened up, approximately 20-25% of Clinton supporters continue to hold out.  Given the number of votes she won in the primary this is not insignificant.  Obama is underperforming with white women over 40 -- a demographic which consistently votes and Hillary won handily during the primaries.  Surely the Obama campaign is aware of all this.

--Clinton is the preferred VP choice of party insiders.  Per the National Journal, when CBS/NYT asked 970 Democratic delegates who Obama should choose to share the ticket with him, 28 percent said Clinton, while Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden came in second among named candidates with just 6 percent. There was much less consensus among delegates pledged to Obama; overwhelming support from delegates pledged to Clinton helped give her that overall edge. That said, 61 percent of all delegates and 35 percent of those pledged to Obama were willing to say that Clinton's selection as vice president would prove helpful to Obama, while just 13 percent overall argued that it would hurt him.  Among just the superdelegates the numbers were similar -- 56 percent say she would help, 11 percent say she would hurt Obama’s chances. The rest are undecided or don’t think her candidacy would affect his chances of victory in November.

--Conventional wisdom has generally been to roll out the running mate a week or so ahead of the convention so the public and press can have a "getting to know you" period with the individual.  Obama, for whatever reason, has chosen to cut that short.  This suggests that someone with at least somewhat of a national reputation such as Bayh or Biden is more likely than, say, Kaine or Sebelius.  But there is one person who would need no introduction -- Hillary Clinton.

--I can think of two reasons why Team Obama would want to keep a potential Hillary selection under wraps.  First, the more unlikely it seems, the greater the catharsis if it happens.  They will dominate the news cycle for the forseeable future.  Second, it would be interesting to see how the McCain campaign would respond to such a curveball.  Ideally, it would have a derailing effect on the Straight Talk Express. 

I am not saying OMGHILLARYISTHECHOICE4SURE!,  but it is useless trying to sort through the smokescreen and head fakes which are currently being played out.  One can only look at the data and political environment and make an educated guess about who would be the strongest choice.  Perhaps Obama's internal polling is telling him something completely different, but we have no way of knowing.

[Lunar]

Ogre, you have many valid points and I still consider Hillary a long-shot.  This is possibly a stupid post for me to make at past 3 am EST when Obama could be announcing his VP before most people on the forum read this.

I have to ask you these questions though:

1) Why the roll-call vote?  Why would Hillary, in low-quality footage to a low-budget fundraiser declare the need for catharsis?  Why would Obama and Hillary's campaigns show an apparent disunity?
2) Unlike the other VP candidates, Kaine, Sebelius, Bayh, and Biden, Hillary is the only one to actually schedule events this coming weekend.  In fact, she has promised to appear at the United Farm Workers Convention in Fresno, California, thirty minutes before Obama has promised to appear with his vice-president in Illinois!  The press had largely discounted the prospects of a Hillary VP pick by the time that she announced this union speech.  Why could she just not plan any events during this day if there was no need for an additional smokescreen?
3) Can you cite a single occasion where the Obama campaign has behaved as if they might, in the back of their minds, want Hillary as a VP?  What I mean is, Obama's campaign has tried their best to diminish hopes for a Hillary VP.  I understand your point that this may be a smoke screen, but have they ever taken a backstep or a sidestep to avoid closing doors too tightly behind them?
4) Occam's Razor - don't you think you might be taking a set order of facts and reconstructing them into a more complicated version of events?

[Ogre Mage]

Take a closer look at the story --

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obama is supposedly set to appear with his choice on Saturday, correct?  Clinton will be speaking at the Convention on Sunday at 2 P.M.  It is Robert Kennedy, Jr. who will be speaking on Saturday.

[Lunar]

Good call, my bad on that point.  Still, I'm intensely cynical of fact-reconstruction.   Fresno isn't exactly the sort of place one would bring a vice-president the day after rolling her out.   My intuition says that if Hillary was the pick, she would not be scheduling low-end fundraising events in, well, crappy cities.  I know a lot of people from Fresno, I'm just calling it like it is, haha.

Anyway, I don't think scheduling a false event in Fresno is a necessary part of an effective smokescreen whatsoever.  She could keep her schedule open without arousing suspicion.  And why wouldn't she be in Western Pennsylvania or Southeastern Ohio instead?

On paper, Hillary remains a distinct possibility.  But, I think, once you view both campaigns' actions, both Barack and Hilldawg are behaving distinctly like she's not the nominee, above and beyond the call of duty to create a smoke screen.  If Obama does choose Hillary, I will give them enormous credit for the over-manipulation of every minor detail so as to create the maximum amount of deterrence for even the most astute of political observers (I don't think 99.9% of the press knows about the Fresno event).

I'm probably biased though because a Hillary pick would cause me to longer vote for O-dawg.

[Eraserhead]

I'm actually starting to get the feeling that we won't even get a leak today, let alone an annoucement.

[motomonkey]

Senator Hillary Clinton

Now, I have been against this prediction for a long time.  But the the weakness in Obama's numbers can best be corrected with Clinton.  He is losing middle and lower class whites, undereducated, southern leaning, Catholics/evangelicals and plain old blue collar workers. 

Nobody speaks to this group better than Clinton. 

Obama believes in "team of rivals" thinking and I at his core he is pragmatist that wants to win.  Clinton gives the Dems the best chance of winning, and this pick solidifies the base and moves the needle immediately.  I am predicting Senator Hillary Clinton.

[Firefly]

Gore

[DownWithTheLeft]

I am almost convinced that it is:





Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton

[3Davideo]

Obama and Clinton have given the press the slip before -- when they snuck away to meet at Diane Feinstein's house. 

That is interesting phrasing.

Anyway, Clinton already has a Tuesday speaking slot, and the VP speaks on Wednesday.  I doubt that they would have her speak twice.

[Beet]

Part of me is still hoping for Clinton, but I don't expect it at this point. For one thing, Mark Penn and the former President seemed to be sending off signals that they didn't think Obama could win the general. If they really think that, they would be lobbying hard against her accepting.

For another thing-- Obama seems serious about this reaching out to new voters/transcending the traditional divide stuff. His campaign has tried to emphasize accentuating his relative strengths, not limiting his relative weaknesses (hence their poor presence in states like Arkansas).
Now the righties are playing up the possibility to mobilize their base.

[3Davideo]

I think I figured out a way to determine Obama's running mate.

First, whoever he picks would be carefully chosen that ensures that Obama gains the White House.  So, in equation form:

Obama + Obama's Running Mate = White House

To solve for Obama's Running Mate, we subtract Obama from both sides:

Obama's Runnning Mate = White House - Obama

We all know that if the White House doesn't have Obama, then the White House will be McCain's.  So:

White House - Obama = McCain

And if we substitute:

Obama's Running Mate = McCain

Therefore, McCain will be Obama's running mate.

[skoods]

I think I figured out a way to determine Obama's running mate.

First, whoever he picks would be carefully chosen that ensures that Obama gains the White House.  So, in equation form:

Obama + Obama's Running Mate = White House

To solve for Obama's Running Mate, we subtract Obama from both sides:

Obama's Runnning Mate = White House - Obama

We all know that if the White House doesn't have Obama, then the White House will be McCain's.  So:

White House - Obama = McCain

And if we substitute:

Obama's Running Mate = McCain

Therefore, McCain will be Obama's running mate.

ah my head hurts