% chance mccain wins ohio
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Poll
Question: ......
#1
less than 10%		  
#2
10-30%		  
#3
30-50%		  
#4
50-70%		  
#5
70%+		  
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Author Topic: % chance mccain wins ohio  (Read 6350 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: August 13, 2008, 03:04:25 PM »
as of today id say 30% or so.
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2008, 03:06:51 PM »
I'd say 60%
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Boris
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« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2008, 03:09:01 PM »

Why? He's at least tied there despite being behind nationally by a couple of percentage points. He probably wins Ohio in the 49-49-2 scenario (whereas Kerry would have won Ohio in such a scenario four years ago).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2008, 03:09:25 PM »
As of today, in comparison to "election day", 50-50. 

The center of the nation right now is virginia, nevada and ohio, with new mexico, iowa and colorado having already flipped.  Tells you where the race is right now.
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NDN
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« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2008, 03:14:25 PM »
I'd say 50-70%. He's at least tied even going by summer polls.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2008, 03:14:35 PM »
about 35-40%, I'd say, maybe low 40's.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2008, 03:14:57 PM »
Quote from: Boris on August 13, 2008, 03:09:01 PM

Why? He's at least tied there despite being behind nationally by a couple of percentage points. He probably wins Ohio in the 49-49-2 scenario (whereas Kerry would have won Ohio in such a scenario four years ago).

i dont buy the fact that he is 'tied' there.
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CPT MikeyMike
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2008, 03:19:13 PM »
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2008, 03:22:01 PM »
Polls from Ohio are all over the place, but I'd say he has a 50-60% chance of winning there. Obama has not lead constantly there even though he's leading nationally.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2008, 03:24:04 PM »
50% chance.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2008, 03:24:36 PM »
     About 45%.
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riceowl
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« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2008, 03:43:42 PM »
i think 40.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2008, 04:51:12 PM »
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War on Want
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« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2008, 05:18:02 PM »
I say anywhere from 50-60 at this point.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2008, 05:31:06 PM »
Around 40%
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2008, 05:34:49 PM »
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2008, 06:04:36 PM »
Probably about 51%.  This is one of those states where the Democrat has to be well ahead in around labor day to win.  Look at Bill Clinton in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1976.  Both had strong Ohio leads that turned into dead heats by election day. 
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2008, 06:08:23 PM »
50%. It's not a state Obama should do well in but he has a chance because he's the opposition in a bad economy. It's a true toss-up, as usual.
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Umengus
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2008, 02:25:00 PM »
65 %
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2008, 03:15:05 PM »
A bit less than 50.
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Alcon
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2008, 03:18:24 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2008, 03:22:22 PM by Alcon »
About 45%

Rasmussen's outlier, among other things (like a lack of polling) makes this a tricky one.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2008, 04:15:16 PM »
50%
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2008, 05:02:39 PM »

I think he'll win it barely though.
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Hash
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2008, 05:16:07 PM »
high 40s - low 50s
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Gustaf
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« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2008, 06:21:12 PM »
I dislike the categories. I'd say 55% or something like that.
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