FL: Insider Advantage: McCain with small lead in FL

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Florida President by Insider Advantage on 2008-08-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 48%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Looks like those Obama polls were flukes, but it's good to see he's still close.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Keep spending millions there, Barack!

[agcatter]

McCain hasn't spent any money on ads there.  Good decision by his campaign.

[Sam Spade]

All I advise is to remember the rule of Florida...

[Brittain33]

McCain hasn't spent any money on ads there.  Good decision by his campaign.

Either he or the RNC is advertising substantially in Florida, according to multiple posters here who have seen his ads on Fla. stations.

[Alcon]

McCain hasn't spent any money on ads there.  Good decision by his campaign.

Either he or the RNC is advertising substantially in Florida, according to multiple posters here who have seen his ads on Fla. stations.

He wasn't as of July 26th, and neither was the RNC.



(Yeah, no idea why McCain dropped a cent on Texas either.)

[Mr.Phips]

McCain hasn't spent any money on ads there.  Good decision by his campaign.

Either he or the RNC is advertising substantially in Florida, according to multiple posters here who have seen his ads on Fla. stations.

He wasn't as of July 26th, and neither was the RNC.



(Yeah, no idea why McCain dropped a cent on Texas either.)

It looks like McCain internals show him up fairly comfortably there. 

[Sam Spade]

Folks, the Olympic buys are national buys.  Also with that table - I thought Obama had bought airtime in Alaska.  That seems to say otherwise.

[Alcon]

Folks, the Olympic buys are national buys.  Also with that table - I thought Obama had bought airtime in Alaska.  That seems to say otherwise.

I'm wondering if Ark. is maybe somehow a typo for Alaska.

[agcatter]

No McCain or RNC buys in Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota - states the Obama side claims they will try and win.  I believe it was the ultimate head fake and McCain didn't bite.

Obama has spent 12 million in those states.  It has not moved the polls in those states even without a response from Republicans.  Part of that is the fact that it's summer and most people tune political ads out.  They don't give a damn.  Obama flushed 12 million down the toilet but then, he had 12 million to flush.  McCain
made a good call to keep his powder dry and it appears to have been a wise move.

[ChrisFromNJ]

No McCain or RNC buys in Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota - states the Obama side claims they will try and win.  I believe it was the ultimate head fake and McCain didn't bite.

Obama has spent 12 million in those states.  It has not moved the polls in those states even without a response from Republicans.  Part of that is the fact that it's summer and most people tune political ads out.  They don't give a damn.  Obama flushed 12 million down the toilet but then, he had 12 million to flush.  McCain
made a good call to keep his powder dry and it appears to have been a wise move.

You're calling a swing state like Florida in early August?

Good grief, the conventions haven't even started yet. This discussion of "head fakes" is absolutely absurd.

[agcatter]

Either it is a head fake

or

Obama really thinks he can actually win those states.

I believe it is number one based on the fact that McCain hasn't bothered to spend a penny in any of those states.  What, you think the McCain campaign would spend nothing in response if they didn't have internal polling showing they didn't need to?  They aren't stupid.  I assume Obama's internal polls show the exact thing McCain's do - hence, the head fake theory.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Either it is a head fake

or

Obama really thinks he can actually win those states.

I believe it is number one based on the fact that McCain hasn't bothered to spend a penny in any of those states.  What, you think the McCain campaign would spend nothing in response if they didn't have internal polling showing they didn't need to?  They aren't stupid.  I assume Obama's internal polls show the exact thing McCain's do - hence, the head fake theory.

Are you insinuating that McCain isn't going to spend a single cent in Florida during this entire campaign?

What are you trying to say exactly?

There are no head fakes this early - especially with a state that has as many electoral votes as Florida. It will be competitive, and there will be plenty of money spent there in September and October by both sides.

[agcatter]

When did I say they weren't going to spend money in Florida during September and October?  Of course they are.  I'm just saying their current internals must indicate they are in good shape not to have to put resources in there now.

BTW, Florida is the only one of those states that can be considered anything close to a swing state in November.  Obama campaign talk of winning any of those states outside of Florida is just that - talk. 

The election will be decided in Colorado, Nevada, NH in my opinion.  I expect McCain to hold serve in Va, Florida and Ohio and Obama to hold serve in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[Sam Spade]

The McCain campaign would be foolish to advertise in "safe" states at this point in the campaign - imagine the publicity.  If its close, they won't do anything until the end of the campaign (last few weeks)

Though not advertising in Florida is telling - remember the rule of Florida.

I still don't understand Georgia on Obama's side.  Or North Carolina for that matter, but I'm not going to stir the hornet's nest.  I'm willing to let Indiana slide until I see more polls (instead of just relying on SUSA).  I'm actually ok with MT, AK and ND - note the amount of expenditures.

Texas - I can't explain.  It's not like that amount would do anything anyways.

[True Democrat]

What's the rule of Florida, Sam, for us less enlightened posters?

[agcatter]

With regards to NC, I haven't seen a poll yet showing Obama tied or in the lead.  Today it was SUSA Obama + 4.  Sounds close until you go back and look at the August 14th poll in 2004 showing Bush up just 6 and then the Sept 7th Survey poll that year showing Bush just up 3.  Even the summer Mason Dixon poll that year (mid July) showed Bush just +3 over Kerry.

Bush won the state easily by 12.  I'm saying that will be down to 7 in November but hardly a swing state.  As far as Georgia goes, I have no idea what the Obama campaign is thinking - they have all that money so they just dumped in there because they had it.  Still think it was to get McCain to redirect his more limited resources away from Ohio and Michigan.

Indiana is another state I'm baffled by.  Obama must have more money than he knows what to do with.  If he starts spending in Texas I'm going to pack it in.

[agcatter]

Yes, what is the rule of Florida?

[Sam Spade]

What's the rule of Florida, Sam, for us less enlightened posters?

1) Trust Mason-Dixon above all, and when Mason-Dixon hasn't polled...
2) Trust that the real numbers in Florida are, at least, more Republican than the recent polling average, and at most, more Republican than the most Republican poll out there.

[agcatter]

Mason Dixon's final 2004 poll had it Bush +4 which was almost dead on.

The other part of the rule also held true as Florida ended up surprising most pundits by going +5 when most of the final polls had it dead even.

Seems pretty sound.

[Verily]

(Yeah, no idea why McCain dropped a cent on Texas either.)

The stupid "counter" ads while Obama was overseas. He put up an ad that ran only in Paris, Texas.

[Alcon]

(Yeah, no idea why McCain dropped a cent on Texas either.)

The stupid "counter" ads while Obama was overseas. He put up an ad that ran only in Paris, Texas.

Wait a minute.  You're not saying he ran an ad in Paris, Texas, because Obama was going to Paris?  Because, if so, that is seriously the dumbest thing I've heard of all campaign season.

[Lunar]

(Yeah, no idea why McCain dropped a cent on Texas either.)

The stupid "counter" ads while Obama was overseas. He put up an ad that ran only in Paris, Texas.

Wait a minute.  You're not saying he ran an ad in Paris, Texas, because Obama was going to Paris?  Because, if so, that is seriously the dumbest thing I've heard of all campaign season.

The RNC ran a special ad in the three towns (I believe) named Berlin in Ohio when Obama was chillin' with the krauts.  McCain also ate at a German restaurant that night.

[Alcon]

(Yeah, no idea why McCain dropped a cent on Texas either.)

The stupid "counter" ads while Obama was overseas. He put up an ad that ran only in Paris, Texas.

Wait a minute.  You're not saying he ran an ad in Paris, Texas, because Obama was going to Paris?  Because, if so, that is seriously the dumbest thing I've heard of all campaign season.

The RNC ran a special ad in the three towns (I believe) named Berlin in Ohio when Obama was chillin' with the krauts.  McCain also ate at a German restaurant that night.

I think the McCain campaign is confusing coincidental with clever just a little bit.