Who do you support in the Georgia/Russia conflict?

[Platypus]

After Putin and UR have spent so much time demonizing central Asians and Caucasians and freezing the Belarussians and Ukrainians, not to meniton the problems they have with the Blatics, expansion seems unlikely.

Basically, roughly every six months, Russia tries to remind the world that it is a significant military power, perhaps even a superpower, to ensure the opposite is not true-the disintegration and lack of concern for Russia and a lack of respect for Russia's abilities.

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

[Daniel Adams]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

[Colin]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

[Daniel Adams]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

True, but remember Russia had basically taken over Abkhazia a few months before, so the Georgians were understandably more concerned about South Ossetia than in the past.

[Colin]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

True, but remember Russia had basically taken over Abkhazia a few months before, so the Georgians were understandably more concerned about South Ossetia than in the past.

Which was in turn caused by Saakashvili saying that if Abkhazia rejected his autonomy plan he would be forced to use military force against them. Really we can continue with this back and forth of measures and countermeasures all night until we finally reach 1990 and Georgian independence.

[Daniel Adams]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

True, but remember Russia had basically taken over Abkhazia a few months before, so the Georgians were understandably more concerned about South Ossetia than in the past.

Which was in turn caused by Saakashvili saying that if Abkhazia rejected his autonomy plan he would be forced to use military force against them. Really we can continue with this back and forth of measures and countermeasures all night until we finally reach 1990 and Georgian independence.

But Russians are supposed to be peacekeepers, a neutral party, so why have they direcly attacked Georgian soil and violated their airspace?

[Хahar 🤔]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

True, but remember Russia had basically taken over Abkhazia a few months before, so the Georgians were understandably more concerned about South Ossetia than in the past.

Which was in turn caused by Saakashvili saying that if Abkhazia rejected his autonomy plan he would be forced to use military force against them. Really we can continue with this back and forth of measures and countermeasures all night until we finally reach 1990 and Georgian independence.

But Russians are supposed to be peacekeepers, a neutral party, so why have they direcly attacked Georgian soil and violated their airspace?

That's what peacekeepers do, if you haven't yet noticed.

[DownWithTheLeft]

BTW, I don't support anyone, I just support the US staying the  out of it

[dead0man]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

Not country...Ossetia is NOT (and never has been) a "country". 

It certainly was convenient that Russia had a column of tanks (and all the infrastructures that comes with them) and an ass ton of troops right next door when the sparring started again heh?

[Colin]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

Not country...Ossetia is NOT (and never has been) a "country". 

I was just using country to denote an area not to mean anything beyond that. If this was back in the 90's and Russians were sending tanks into Grozny I would call Chechnya a "country" in a non-formal context. I didn't know this was a political science class with an incredible anal teacher. I'll make sure to only use country, state, nation-state, or unrecognized de facto governmental entity in the future.

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Well that could be because the 58th Army, the first to respond, is headquartered in Vladikavkaz, in the Republic of North Ossetia, and has been since 1995. Vladikavkaz is less than 25 kilometers from the Georgian border. Some Russian troops were moved to the border, near the Roki Tunnel, on 4 August, 3 days after the first Georgian incursions into South Ossetia and as the Georgians were massing troops around the borders of South Ossetia and shelling areas inside South Ossetia.

If the troops were normally headquartered in, say, Astrakhan or someplace further north in the Caucasus then yes, it would be incredibly convenient that they would have the equipment right there at the border when Georgia attacked. Given that Vladikavkaz is close to the border and that Georgia had been shelling South Ossetia for two days prior to the first movement of Russian troops, to the Roki tunnel area in North Ossetia I don't really find it that odd.

[dead0man]

I was just using country to denote an area not to mean anything beyond that.

My apologies.

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Well that could be because the 58th Army, the first to respond, is headquartered in Vladikavkaz, in the Republic of North Ossetia, and has been since 1995. Vladikavkaz is less than 25 kilometers from the Georgian border. Some Russian troops were moved to the border, near the Roki Tunnel, on 4 August, 3 days after the first Georgian incursions into South Ossetia and as the Georgians were massing troops around the borders of South Ossetia and shelling areas inside South Ossetia.

If the troops were normally headquartered in, say, Astrakhan or someplace further north in the Caucasus then yes, it would be incredibly convenient that they would have the equipment right there at the border when Georgia attacked. Given that Vladikavkaz is close to the border and that Georgia had been shelling South Ossetia for two days prior to the first movement of Russian troops, to the Roki tunnel area in North Ossetia.
[/quote]Aye, but the 58th has no/few tanks.  I was under the impression that the tanks kind of came out of nowhere, but I'm having a hard time finding where I got that impression from now.

[Dan the Roman]

I tend to be skeptical of Russian claims in this areas. For anyone who thinks Abkhazia or South Ossetia are real countries, I recommend people check out the events surrounding the 2004 elections in Abkhazia. The Pro-Russian candidate lost, and the Russians and their supporters in Abkhazia  attempted to overthrow the "legal" Abkhazian government and install the pro-Russian candidate. Any Pro-Russian Georgia is likely to meet the same fate.

That said Georgia was foolish to push this issue to a head, but only in the same sense the MDC in Zimbabwe was foolish to fight the runoff rather than seeking a settlement with Mugabe in April.  Both took American advice, and made the mistake of assuming American support in their plans, support that would not, and for that could not be forthcoming. They are now paying for that error.

They also seemed to have no plan for what to do if South Ossetia did not immediately surrender, hence the massive civilian casualties.

[dead0man]

Aye, but the 58th has no/few tanks.  I was under the impression that the tanks kind of came out of nowhere, but I'm having a hard time finding where I got that impression from now.

I guess the 58th does have a few hundred tanks in it's various Motorized Rifle regiments and single tank regiment.

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That's a lot of BTR's (and various other APCs).  I hope the Georgians are good with Javelin's and AT'4s.

[dead0man]

It wasn't accident that all that gear and personell were down there.link

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[Colin]

It wasn't accident that all that gear and personell were down there.link

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These have been happening for years though. I think it would have been a little odd for the Russians to have known about this in late June or early July. If they had this could have been a measure to move troops down there in a, wait and see, type of scenario to wait and see if their reports were right concerning a planned Georgian attack. It could also be another one of the hundreds of training exercises or "training exercises", attacks on Caucasian seperatists and the ongoing guerilla war in North Ossetia, Ingushetia and Chechnya that are portrayed as exercises in order to promote a sense of false stability in the region, that have been taking place in the region since the beginnings of the War in Chechnya.

[dead0man]

No chance they were there waiting for an excuse?

[??????????]

That said, the first military action was undertaken by Georgia.

The first military action was undertaken by South Ossetians who broke the ceasefire by attacking two Georgian villages. Georgia simply retaliated.

This has been going on since Georgia's independence though. A few South Ossetian raiders would come over the border and attack a Georgian town, a Georgian raiding party would go across the South Ossetian border and attack a few villages or there would be sporadic artillery fire. What has never happened before, at least since 1992, if I recall correctly, has been a major military operation of the size and magnitude of Georgia's attack on South Ossetia with the intent of retaking the entire country.

How much is enough? Sorry, but eventually you have to put your foot down and stop these "raids". Georgia had a completely appropriate response.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol @ Josh wanting us to go to war with Russia over a tiny province in a tiny nation like Georgia.

The only way I see any strong U.S., UN, or NATO involvement is if the Russians completely annex Georgia and decide "that felt good, it's time we take back all the Soviet states."  Although such an act probably wouldn't require much intervention as the Russian people would probably be so against Putin in that situation that there'd be a revolution.

The last sentence is ironical...?

Indeed it is.

Revolutions following misguided expansion attempts by power-hungry leaders are a time-honored Russian tradition.

OK, luckily it is some irony, because it would be very risky to bet on this tradition here I think...

As I said, it require Russia going crazy and retaking the former Soviet republics; spreading out their military and requiring NATO action (which is pretty much a given, especially if the nations who Russia goes after include NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania).

The nation's military power being spread thin like that in war could weaken Putin's power and lead to a regime change in Moscow.

The nation's military power being spread thin like that in war could weaken Putin's power and lead to a regime change in Moscow.

Personally, this is a bet that I wouldn't take!

It seems I misunderstood yesterday night, sorry (it was about midnight, was tired).

Now that I'm well awoken:

I think that on the more or less long term a conflict could directly militarily oppose West and Russia, and if yes and if the Russian military is weakened I effectively think that, yes, a change of regime could occur, and I even think it would be to go to a West-friendly regime (unrealistic? I maintain). Just one point on which I tend to disagree, I would be surprised it happens during a war scenario like the one you proposed...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

How much is enough? Sorry, but eventually you have to put your foot down and stop these "raids". Georgia had a completely appropriate response.

When what has happened to Georgia as a result of poking the Russian bear was totally predictable, the response was completely stupid no matter how appropriate it was.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What Georgia should've done is arranged for the "President" of South Ossetia to have a little "accident" and then made it clear that the same would happen to his successor if the raids didn't stop. That's pretty much what Russia does to Chechnya (5/7 of the people ever to serve as President of Chechnya are now dead.)

[dead0man]

Well to be fair, Russia is a lot better at assassination than Georgia is.  If the Russians want you dead, even being in London and telling everybody you talk to that the Russians are going to kill you won't help.  And even though they weren't smart enough to get away with it cleanly that time, the UK/US still doesn't have the gonads to do anything about it.

Maybe if Putin drank some radioactive vodka.....

[Colin]

Maybe if Putin drank some radioactive vodka.....

Well that plan would fail. Putin is stone cold sober and, from every account I've ever read, never drinks. He's probably the only Russian who doesn't but it's true.