WA-Rasmussen: Gregoire leads by 4

[Tender Branson]

Gregoire: 50%
Rossi: 46%

Rossi is currently supported by 90% of Republicans, Gregoire by 87% of Democrats, and Rossi leads by thirteen points among unaffiliated voters.

Gregoire is viewed favorably by 53%, down three from a month ago. Rossi earns positive review from 51%, up a point since last month.

Link

[MarkWarner08]

That 16% point lead should be excluded from the polling average of this race.

[Sam Spade]

That 16% point lead should be excluded from the polling average of this race.

As should any poll from Elway Research ever...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Whilst I have no doubt in my mind that Governor Gregoire will win reelection over her 2004 opponent Dino Rossi, the 2008 Gubernatorial Election will not be as close as it was in 2004, nor do I expect any legal challenges with the results, like in 2004, though who knows, it's politics. I predict Governor Gregoire will win reelection, over Rossi by 3-5 points.

[Meeker]

It'll be interesting to see how the primary turns out... the 8 or so crazies will probably take around 5% combined and I'm not sure where that's going to come from.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Can some one tell me the party sizes in Washington? I mean for Rossi to have 90% of GOP compared to Gregoire's 87% of Dems and for Rossi to have a 13 point lead among Independents I would think he would lead unless the Dems have a huge registration edge.

[Hash]

Can some one tell me the party sizes in Washington? I mean for Rossi to have 90% of GOP compared to Gregoire's 87% of Dems and for Rossi to have a 13 point lead among Independents I would think he would lead unless the Dems have a huge registration edge.

Rossi has a 13-pt edge with Independents in the Rasmussen poll?

[Alcon]

Can some one tell me the party sizes in Washington? I mean for Rossi to have 90% of GOP compared to Gregoire's 87% of Dems and for Rossi to have a 13 point lead among Independents I would think he would lead unless the Dems have a huge registration edge.

We don't have party registration.

SurveyUSA tends to lowball independents, but going by their last poll:

Democrats (39%)
Republicans (27%)
Independents (26%)

Giving Rossi 90-7 among Republicans, Gregoire 87-10 among Democrats, and Rossi 53-40 among independents (rough estimate with D+R+I):

Gregoire: (0.39*0.87)+(0.27*0.07)+(0.26*0.4) = 46.22%
Rossi: (0.39*0.1)+(0.27*0.9)+(0.26*0.53) = 41.98%

Margin: Gregoire +4.24%

So, yeah, perfectly in line with what we've been seeing.