Looking Through the Crystal Ball
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Author Topic: Looking Through the Crystal Ball  (Read 11643 times)
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,643
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

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« Reply #25 on: September 07, 2008, 10:24:45 PM »

A.Oil isn't just going to run out one day.  As has been shown recently, when it gets to high, people and businesses use less of it.
B.Because A is true, people and businesses will be looking for alternatives to what they currently use oil or it's byproducts for.
C.Because B is true, other people and businesses will be looking to find those alternatives.

It might hurt.  We might not have all the swell things cheap transportation has brought us, or at least as many of them.  But us changing from oil to other sources of energy isn't, by itself, going to knock our civilization down.  And the govt funking up the market by favoring certain industries over others isn't going to help.  Especially not at the Federal level.
A. That may be very true but it does not change the fact that much of country needs oil and low gas prices to have their lives in place.(suburbanites)
B. This is also true but name good by products for oil that would work well on a national scale. The fact is that there really aren't any and any of these would only be buying us some time unless a miraculous invention is found.
C. Yes this is part of human nature, it doesn't change the overall facts.

I don't personally think the "oil crisis" will knock our civilization down by any means anyways. I think it might create something on the scale of a second great depression with some regression in the process but this will reverse it self fairly quickly. I actually have to strongly disagree with you think the government would somehow mess things up. If anything private industry will and the govt will need to take tough action to get through this future rough period.(nationalization etc)
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dead0man
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 46,338
United States


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« Reply #26 on: September 09, 2008, 09:47:53 PM »

When the Feds favor one industry over another they create falls economics.  If the free market is allowed to work, the best and cheapest solution will be the result.  The one that provides the most "bang for the buck".  If the govt steps in and artificially makes one technology cheaper via subsidies.  It takes incentive away from the other industries to advance their technology.  It takes incentive away from the industries being helped because they have a built in competitive advantage and have little need to advance their technology.  This is how you end up with Trabant's on one side of Germany and Porsche 911's (and Audi A8's, and BMW M3's and M-Class Benz's) on the other.

Look at methanol.  It's NOT a good solution to our oil problem, everybody knows that.  We can't grow enough corn to meet the needs.  Why are we subsidizing it?  It certainly isn't to help get us off foreign oil.  It certainly isn't to help the American consumer save money or change the way he/she uses energy.  It's to help farming corporations.  It's messed up the market.  The govt is wasting our tax dollars by throwing them at clearly wrong technologies.  But even if methanol was the answer the Fed's still shouldn't subsidize it.  If it's the best solution to our needs, why does it need to be made artificially cheaper?  Will it always need to be cheaper?  What about other industries, why are they being punished?  Because they aren't as good?  If they aren't as good wouldn't they fall to the side in time anyway? 

If you want what's best for the future of America you wouldn't want to handcuff future generations supporting our current inefficient one.  That's what subsidizing does.  We can make excuses for ourselves.  Maybe some future tech will make energy plentiful for all and even the sick, old and lazy will have all their basic needs provided.  Or maybe we'll all be dead.  Or aliens will come.  Or maybe our grandkids are already funked over thanks to the Boomers.  We might as well get ours too right?  All excuses will be worthless to the ones hurt.
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