Looking Through the Crystal Ball

[2952-0-0]

I'm going to look into the crystal ball for the next 50 years. It will come in short segments which will chronicle life in a specific period, and will start in January 2009 (just after the next POTUS is inaugurated) and end in 2060. Parts of the content will ruffle feathers, but I'm trying to be as realistic as possible here.

[Хahar 🤔]

I love future timelines.

[2952-0-0]

Part 1: Times A-Changin'

Barack Obama is elected POTUS in a decisive victory. His message of change and hope resonates with a nation tired of eight years of failed policies, while his opponent had appeared senile and out of touch.

He starts with a high approval rate of 70%, with a honeymoon that would last for months. Within months most of his promised laws are enacted, though not without compromises. He covertly begins rapprochement with regimes previously shunned by Washington. Iraq is still wracked by instability even as US forces pull out en masse, though most fears of conflict in Iran have subsided.

Over on Wall Street, things are dire. Crude oil had long resumed its steep rally, fuelled by reports of supply bottlenecks, reaching $180 by March 2009. Bank after bank is forced out of business, and GM is considering filing for bankruptcy protection after sales plummet by 30% since their peak. Both inflation and unemployment had reached 8%, and GDP had been stagnant or falling for 18 months. Despite early efforts to restrain spending, Uncle Sam continues to run multi-billion-dollar deficits, and conditions in Europe are not much better.

Then Iraq explodes. On October 3, 2009, renegade Iraq military officers backed by Iran stage a coup, executing al-Maliki and most of his cabinet. Obama attempts to remove the coup plotters by force, provoking massive bloodshed. It is a major disaster for his administration.

Despite (or because of) measures to control speculation, tightening oil supply pushes crude oil to dizzying highs: $250 in March 2010, $270 in October. Although advances in alternative energy sources have been made, fuel has become the number one issue facing all governments in the world. Stagflation makes a return in much of the world, and even China struggles to achieve 4% growth.

Faced with surging inflation, unemployment, and a sense of malaise, Republicans make gains in the 2010 midterm elections. But no one seems to offer a solution to the terrible economic conditions.

January, 2011: Huizhou, China. The government has authorized drastic cuts in fuel subsidies as crude oil continues its surge. It insists this will be temporary, but it's clear that not even China is immune to the Oil Shock. Millions of factory workers in the region, who had been tossed out as demand for Chinese goods massively fall, start grumbling. This snowballs into a violent riot, one not even the state media and internet firewall can ignore. Strikes, demonstrations, and riots spread to all of China's cities, until even the military refuses to deal with them. Over a million gather on Tiananmen Square, where Party big wigs suddenly address the crowd and agree to stamp against corruption, ration fuel, and hold multiparty elections in September. It's the biggest victory for freedom since the fall of Hitler, but the underlying problems remain. A few weeks later a pro-Chinese junta seizes power in North Korea and immediately embarks on social and economic reforms.

Slowly but steadily, in Europe and North America, people begin to speculate whether the oil crisis will be permanent. Inflation by the middle of 2011 has reached 14% in the US, GDP continues to contract, and unemployment has surged. A massive round of bankruptcies in the global airline industry has made the world much bigger, exotic foods have become specialities, and many areas of the world have started distributing ration books.

The first elections in China result in a grand coalition between the Communists, a rural traditionalist party, an industrial socialist party, and regional minority parties. The world is relieved at how smoothly the transition of power had taken place.

It is now late 2011, and campaigning for the 2012 US President Election is well underway. Tim Kaine is seriously challenging Obama for the nomination; though Obama would most likely win, it is proof the Democratic Party is in crisis. Lieberman (now officially on the other side), Huckabee, Palin, and Jindal all make a run on their side.

Global leaders hold an extraordinary conference (a week before the Iowa Caucus, now in late December) where they discuss the oil crisis which is causing tremendous damage. After it they release a statement admitting the realities about falling oil supply, and announce a global mega-fund to retrofit the world's infrastructure and move the world away from oil. Barack Obama makes his most memorable sentence.

Obama wins 75% in Iowa, and wins similar margins in New Hampshire. On Super Tuesday, Kaine concedes. Over on the Republican side, the race is down to Lieberman and Huckabee (what godawful choices).

But the continuing economic woes don't ease. All of the world has now rationed basic foods and fuel, and several developing countries undergo civil unrest. A day after Pakistan defaults on debt payments, radical Islam inspired generals stage a coup. Government troops return fire, and the country descends into civil war. In March, Government forces use a nuke on the city of Quetta, killing over 300,000.

Back in the United States, the Texas State Government starts issuing its own local currency. Federal laws fail to stop them, and the Texas Legislature votes for a resolution declaring its laws supreme. A bitterly divided Congress votes to nullify the resolution, starting the War of Laws. The 2012 Presidential race continues, but this is vastly overshadowed as dozens of states declare sections of federal law invalid. Obama runs for re-election purely on the platform of getting the country off oil, while the Huckabee/Jindal ticket panders to the worst form of religious fundamentalist. Several states announce they will ask voters in November whether to proceed with even more anti-Washington acts.

By mid-October, with the world in deep crisis, and with the US of A on the brink of collapse, the eyes of the world are on the ballot box.

[Hash]

Is Sarkozy re-elected in 2012?

[2952-0-0]

Is Sarkozy re-elected in 2012?

Let's say he's secretly recorded making a Nazi salute one day.

[dead0man]

Who's buying the oil at $270 a barrel in a year and a half?  Both China and the US are using less oil now than they did a year ago and that trend isn't going to change in the next year and a half....especially if fuel prices are going to be doubling in that time.

[2952-0-0]

China is definitely not using less oil. The world's spigots cannot be opened much further regardless of more drilling. So it's neither a buyer nor seller market.

Here I go again.

Part 2: Crisis

At least 20 states pass anti-Union initiatives. Some invalidate federal drug laws, while others demand state control of federal assets. Still others restrict federal military movements. As for the presidential election, Obama is reelected on a low-turnout landslide against the Huckabee/Palin ticket; several states had urged voters not to vote federally.

With dizzyingly high commodity prices, Wall Street no longer looks to record profits; instead it's just surviving the next quarter. The same is true for ordinary citizens, with mass unemployment and fuel shortages. No one has any idea when the situation will bottom out, with global GDP contracting and the economic gains of the past 30 years being slowly clawed away.

Much of the world is frantically rebuilding their now obsolete infrastructure: China's massive resources are entirely dedicated to this cause, solar cells are being built in the Sahara, and the world's auto factories have found a new life manufacturing rail vehicles. Scientists work day and night on energy research, though no one expects a turnaround for years.

Across the world, lifestyles have changed. No longer are stores filled with cheap Chinese goods; no longer are Mexican tomatoes available in January, and no longer do people travel the world for vacations.

Pakistan is now completely split between a government-controlled east and a rebel-controlled west, pro-Russian leaders have been installed in the Caucasus and Central Asia (to control the oil transit points), Burma's military junta has fallen from power, and Mongolia has become a de-facto Chinese vassal state. In Mexico, a staunch leftist is elected in 2012.

In the developing world, the countries that have not succumbed to war or dictatorship have started oscillating between various populists; the same is true in Europe, where far-right nationalists and far-left socialists have made large gains.

All the world's remaining oil producers have either been mugged for oil by bigger powers or seeing record inflation by a flood of petrodollars, petroeuros, petroyuan, petrorubles, and petrorupees.

As health services disintegrate, global death rates start increasing; in the United States, the population has started shrinking at a rate of 0.2%; in Europe, the demographic decline intensifies. Even parts of China see deaths outweigh births.

The Obama Administration, now in its seventh year, has now ceased to be relevant despite its best efforts to remain so. Troop mutinies are now a monthly occurrence, several states have formed border controls and custom rules, and the general public pay no attention to the antics in Washington. Regional currencies, backed by assertive state governments, have now supplanted the Greenback, which is now rejected even in Africa. There are rumours that California and Texas would attempt to join the UN in their own right, and parts of the Midwest and Deep South are wracked by fighting between militias. Though Obama continues to use his rhetoric to plea for unity, some politicians call for the disbandment of the USA entirely.

To be continued later...

[Хahar 🤔]

Ooh. Tell me what's happening in Bangladesh.

[Hash]

where does it talk about the results for the 2012 election?

Read the damn timeline.

[afleitch]

What's happening in the UK (or what's left of it?)

[ilikeverin]

Ooh. Tell me what's happening in Bangladesh.

WE WANT EAST TIMOR NEWS

[Colin]

Ooh. Tell me what's happening in Bangladesh.

WE WANT EAST TIMOR NEWS

NO!

Give me Liechtenstein or give me death.

[dead0man]

China is definitely not using less oil. The world's spigots cannot be opened much further regardless of more drilling. So it's neither a buyer nor seller market.

Yeah, facts be damned!  link

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Oil will not be selling at $270 a barrel anytime soon, if ever.

[2952-0-0]

Guess what happens when China is forced to loosen the price controls?

And it's quite delusional to think that oil production will keep increasing. No amount of technology will create a resource that never existed in the first place.

So either prices soar or supply becomes erratic. Either way things will change.

As for the questions:

East Timor: becomes an Australian vassal state

If things aren't so bad the western democracies swing between Eastern-European style populists. If things get ugly then things will be nasty, obviously.

[dead0man]

You peak oil guys are as fun to talk to as the Big Footers and the truthers....and just as logical!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You peak oil guys are as fun to talk to as the Big Footers and the truthers....and just as logical!

So let's hear your theory about how we have an infinite amount of oil.

[dead0man]

Nice strawman!  We don't.  We'll have to change.  If you weren't in such a panic you'd see that we are changing.  The change will hurt some and help others.  Somebody is going to make trillions off the change.  Others will die because of the change, but don't worry you're little head...most of those won't be Americans. 

Stop buying into the fear mongering, you'll feel better.

[ilikeverin]

East Timor: becomes an Australian vassal state

At least they're not re-annexed by Indonesia.

[Хahar 🤔]

I demand Bangladesh news.

[Hash]

What happens in Canada? Is Steve re-elected? Does the Redneck Party win a majority?

[DownWithTheLeft]

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So much for realistic, it only took one line to become fantasy

[2952-0-0]

Bangladesh: suffers through stagflation, civil unrest, and so forth. Much like the rest of Asia.

Canada: Regardless whether Steve wins reelection or majority or not, by 2012 Ottawa will try to recreate Trudeau's National Energy Plan and ensure a domestic oil supply. Alberta will of course balk and might form an economic bloc with other western provinces.

The country as a whole won't so easily fly apart, but the eastern half would go through bad times.

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So much for realistic, it only took one line to become fantasy

Your opinion doens't count.

[Хahar 🤔]

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Military dictatorship?

[War on Want]

You peak oil guys are as fun to talk to as the Big Footers and the truthers....and just as logical!

Explain how we get off of oil without big problems then?

[dead0man]

A.Oil isn't just going to run out one day.  As has been shown recently, when it gets to high, people and businesses use less of it.
B.Because A is true, people and businesses will be looking for alternatives to what they currently use oil or it's byproducts for.
C.Because B is true, other people and businesses will be looking to find those alternatives.

It might hurt.  We might not have all the swell things cheap transportation has brought us, or at least as many of them.  But us changing from oil to other sources of energy isn't, by itself, going to knock our civilization down.  And the govt funking up the market by favoring certain industries over others isn't going to help.  Especially not at the Federal level.