Israel and Hizballah Ready to Rumble?

[phk]

Israel and Hizballah Ready to Rumble?

By Nicholas Blanford | Beirut
Time Magazine
Aug 1, 2008

Ever since they fought to a tie in their 2006 clash in southern Lebanon, Israel and Hizballah have assumed they will tangle again. And the date of their rematch may be drawing closer if some of the rhetoric on both sides is to be believed.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, on a trip to the United States this week, has been warning officials that Hizballah’s rocket arsenal has “doubled, if not tripled” since the end of the month-long war in the summer of 2006, during which the militia of the Shi’ite movement fired thousands of rockets into the Jewish State. “Israel considers this to be a real and serious danger,” Barak said.

But Hizballah has complaints of its own, this week accusing Israel of repeatedly violating Lebanese sovereignty on land, sea and particularly in its airspace, which is breached almost daily by Israeli jets and reconnaissance drones.

“The Israeli enemy’s persistence in its violations of Lebanese airspace, territorial waters, and territory, especially during the past few days, is an unacceptable provocative escalation that calls for condemnation and serious action on the part of the concerned Lebanese authorities as well as the UN bodies,” the Islamic Resistance, Hizbullah’s military wing, said this week in its first statement since the 2006 war.

The tenor of Hizballah’s statement has some analysts predicting trouble. “I think they are oiling up their 57mm guns again,” said Timur Goksel, a Beirut-based Middle East security analyst and former senior official with the United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon. He was referring to the anti-aircraft cannons used by Hizballah a few years ago to fire shells across the border into Israel in a tit-for-tat response to Israeli incursions into Lebanese airspace.

“The Israeli overflights have increased lately and it looks like the Israelis are provoking Hizballah into showing their deployments,” Goksel said.

Following the conclusion of a prisoner swap between Israel and Hizballah two weeks ago, the Shi’ite group’s leaders have said they will now concentrate their efforts on other outstanding grievances. Other than the aerial and maritime violations, these include the Israeli occupation of the Shebaa Farms, a remote mountainside running along Lebanon’s southeast border claimed by Lebanon, as well as a continued Israeli troop presence in the northern, Lebanese, half of Ghajar village which straddles the border.

Hizballah maintains that armed resistance is the only effective leverage against Israel, but it has said it is willing to give a chance to diplomatic efforts to resolve the violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Still, analysts warn, the Islamic Resistance statement appears to be aimed at justifying future military action.

“They are allowing diplomacy a chance in order for it to fail,” said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a Beirut-based specialist on Hizballah. “By filing a quite unprecedented complaint, they are holding the UN and the Lebanese government accountable, which means Hizballah is paving the way for a [military] response.”

Recent press reports in Israel claimed that Hizballah has been deploying radar-guided anti-aircraft missile systems in eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, in preparation to shoot down Israeli jets. Some of these reports asserted that missile batteries have been installed on the summit of Mount Sannine, an 8,700-foot mountain that overlooks Beirut and the Mediterranean to the west, and the Bekaa Valley to the east. When TIME trekked up Sannine’s summit recently, it found nothing but sheets of frost-shattered limestone baking in the sun. The only signs of life were distant flocks of goats, and the occasional lone eagle floating on the thermals high above.

Hizballah possesses a formidable arsenal, including long-range artillery rockets, shore-to-ship cruise missiles and laser-guided anti-tank missiles. But the group has yet to find a means of challenging Israel’s control of Lebanese skies. Hizballah officials acknowledged privately after the 2006 war that they had been disappointed by the performance of their anti-aircraft weaponry, and were looking to rectify the deficiency. Whether they have acquired new anti-aircraft weapons systems remains unknown. But even if they have, Hizballah may not wish to prematurely expose its new capability by shooting down an Israeli jet solely for a propaganda coup.

“They need to keep some surprises left in case of another war,” said Saad-Ghorayeb. “There are other actions they can take.”

Hizballah also has to contend with a challenge from its Western-backed domestic opponents who question the group’s continued bearing of arms. Division over Hizballah’s weapons has deadlocked a ministerial committee charged with formulating a policy platform for the new government of national unity, in which Hizballah and its allies have a veto-wielding one-third share. The fate of Hizballah’s weapons will also top the agenda when Lebanon’s leaders convene shortly to negotiate a national defense strategy. It promises to be a tough debate. Hizballah intends that its right to bear arms will be codified as part of Lebanon’s national defense plan, while its opponents hope to clip the organization’s military wings by giving the state a monopoly of force, and thereby the sole power to decide issues of war and peace.

If Hizballah is thinking of launching missiles at Israeli jets or warships cruising the Lebanese coast, or launching an attack in the Shebaa Farms, it would have to carefully calculate Israel’s expected response. In July 2006, Hizballah’s abduction of two Israeli soldiers triggered a 34-day war which cost over 1,200 Lebanese lives. Although Hizballah fought the Israeli army to a standstill in south Lebanon and claimed a “divine victory”, it appears to be in no hurry to repeat the experience.

“The Resistance’ role is to stand against any Israeli greed and assaults that may take place at any moment,” said Hussein Khalil, senior advisor to Hizballah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday. “We, definitely, are not declaring that a war might take place.” Good news for those Lebanese hoping for a quiet summer for a change.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

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Just like Iran...

Iran? Hizballah? With who Israel will fight at first? With both? With no one?

I don't know but it seems that risks from now to the end the year for a hot time in Israel are higher and higher...

[The Man From G.O.P.]

There would have to be some sense of resistance for it to be a "rumble".

[dead0man]

The first line is retarded, "fought to a tie"?  Do I need to keep going?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The first line is retarded, "fought to a tie"?  Do I need to keep going?

What's inaccurate about it?

[??????????]

Hizballah is kind of like the one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

[dead0man]

The first line is retarded, "fought to a tie"?  Do I need to keep going?

What's inaccurate about it?

In what way was it a tie?  I thought I remember hearing about how horrible it was for Israel to go into Lebanon and lay waste to their cities (they didn't) and that war of a aggression by Israel was hurting the fragile peace Hezbollah had fought so hard to achieve.

Seriously though, by any reasonable meassure, the Israeli military kicked the ass of the Hezzies, just like they always do when the forces collide head to head.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The first line is retarded, "fought to a tie"?  Do I need to keep going?

What's inaccurate about it?

In what way was it a tie?  I thought I remember hearing about how horrible it was for Israel to go into Lebanon and lay waste to their cities (they didn't) and that war of a aggression by Israel was hurting the fragile peace Hezbollah had fought so hard to achieve.

Seriously though, by any reasonable meassure, the Israeli military kicked the ass of the Hezzies, just like they always do when the forces collide head to head.

What did Israel win from that war? They didn't even get their two soldiers back alive, and Hezbollah's still active. Nor did Israel harm them in any meaningful way.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is pathetic.  It's Hezbollah, not Hizballah

[dead0man]

What did Israel win from that war? They didn't even get their two soldiers back alive, and Hezbollah's still active. Nor did Israel harm them in any meaningful way.

Hezbollah lost, again, in combat.  That has value.  The halfwits havn't stolen any soldiers recently.  Israel might not have won much, but they certainly didn't "tie".

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is pathetic.  It's Hezbollah, not Hizballah

LOL! Wow, are you that ignorant? There's no direct translation of most Arabic words or phrases into English, so English spellings are usually just phonetic, and the sound used isn't really the equivalent of an "e" or "i".

What did Israel win from that war? They didn't even get their two soldiers back alive, and Hezbollah's still active. Nor did Israel harm them in any meaningful way.

Hezbollah lost, again, in combat.  That has value.  The halfwits havn't stolen any soldiers recently.  Israel might not have won much, but they certainly didn't "tie".

Hezbollah cross-border raids of that sort were never all that common (at least in recent years) to begin with. So that doesn't prove anything. Hezbollah is still intact and as powerful as they were before. What did Israel get out of it? Really nothing, not even a propaganda victory (on that level in fact it was probably a greater propaganda victory for Hezbollah who now have the bragging rights that even the IDF couldn't wipe them out.)

Besides if Israel won, why did Olmert's approval rating tank so badly? Why wasn't he lauded as the guy who won a war?

[dead0man]

Hezbollah cross-border raids of that sort were never all that common (at least in recent years) to begin with. So that doesn't prove anything. Hezbollah is still intact and as powerful as they were before. What did Israel get out of it? Really nothing, not even a propaganda victory (on that level in fact it was probably a greater propaganda victory for Hezbollah who now have the bragging rights that even the IDF couldn't wipe them out.)

Besides if Israel won, why did Olmert's approval rating tank so badly? Why wasn't he lauded as the guy who won a war?

Again, I'm not arguing it was a huge glorious victory for Israel, I'm saying it wasn't a tie.  Hezbollah lost 500 dudes, Israel lost a little more than 100.  All the battles took place out of Israeli territory.  It tanked an already fragile economy in Lebanon.  It could have been a better run war, I don't know.  I'm not sure Israel could have "gained" much under any circumstances.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Again, I'm not arguing it was a huge glorious victory for Israel, I'm saying it wasn't a tie.  Hezbollah lost 500 dudes, Israel lost a little more than 100.

By that standard the Soviets won in Afghanistan.

All the battles took place out of Israeli territory.

All fighting in Vietnam took place outside of America territory, so what?

It tanked an already fragile economy in Lebanon.

I'm sure the vast majority of Lebanese who have nothing to do with Hezbollah love that. That's a BENEFIT to them.

It could have been a better run war, I don't know.  I'm not sure Israel could have "gained" much under any circumstances.

They could've, you know, gotten their soldiers back alive. And if they couldn't gain anymore, what's the point? Kill a ton of innocent Lebanese for nothing?

Look, if it wasn't a tie, explain how it harmed Hezbollah in any significant manner.

[dead0man]

Again, I'm not arguing it was a huge glorious victory for Israel, I'm saying it wasn't a tie.  Hezbollah lost 500 dudes, Israel lost a little more than 100.

By that standard the Soviets won in Afghanistan.

No, but they certainly didn't "tie".

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All fighting in Vietnam took place outside of America territory, so what?[/quote]Yep, and I'd rather be in the Washington DC at the end of the war instead of Saigon.  I'd also rather be in Moscow at the end of Afghan-Soviet War for that matter.  If I go to your house and demand your TV, you refuse and I kick the ever living crap out of you, but you stop me from taking your TV; have you won?  Have I lost?  Is it a tie?  The US military stomped the North Vietnamese every time they fought a major battle.  We didn't lose Vietnam, Congress lost Vietnam.  The CCCP did the same thing in Afghanistan, and again, their govt failed them just like it did our military in Vietnam (and again when the Iranians took our embassy and again when we invaded Iraq, both times).

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I'm sure the vast majority of Lebanese who have nothing to do with Hezbollah love that. That's a BENEFIT to them.[/quote]I've never made an argument that any of this benefited the Lebanese, I'm not sure why you thought I have.  If they don't want this kind of thing to happen again, they should probably, finally, to do something about the terrorists they are harboring.

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They could've, you know, gotten their soldiers back alive.[/quote]Not if they were already dead.

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So they should just let them get away with it?  You don't see a longterm problem with that kind of policy?

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Well losing 500 fighters and most of their infrastructure in Lebanon isn't exactly a small booboo.  AGAIN, I'm not saying this was a great or "significant" victory for anybody here, I'm saying it wasn't a tie.  Do I need to add a "militarily" caveat to the end of that line to make you happy?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Again, I'm not arguing it was a huge glorious victory for Israel, I'm saying it wasn't a tie.  Hezbollah lost 500 dudes, Israel lost a little more than 100.

By that standard the Soviets won in Afghanistan.

No, but they certainly didn't "tie".

No it was a clear defeat. Which was exactly my point.

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All fighting in Vietnam took place outside of America territory, so what?

Yep, and I'd rather be in the Washington DC at the end of the war instead of Saigon.  I'd also rather be in Moscow at the end of Afghan-Soviet War for that matter.  If I go to your house and demand your TV, you refuse and I kick the ever living crap out of you, but you stop me from taking your TV; have you won?  Have I lost?  Is it a tie?  The US military stomped the North Vietnamese every time they fought a major battle.  We didn't lose Vietnam, Congress lost Vietnam.  The CCCP did the same thing in Afghanistan, and again, their govt failed them just like it did our military in Vietnam (and again when the Iranians took our embassy and again when we invaded Iraq, both times).[/quote]

Certainly doesn't make either a victory. And I don't care about losing Vietnam anyway, the US should've never been there in the first place.

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I'm sure the vast majority of Lebanese who have nothing to do with Hezbollah love that. That's a BENEFIT to them.

I've never made an argument that any of this benefited the Lebanese, I'm not sure why you thought I have.  If they don't want this kind of thing to happen again, they should probably, finally, to do something about the terrorists they are harboring.[/quote]

The Lebanese government would like to (believe it or not most governments don't like the prospect of not having sovereignty over part of their territory.) The problem is they can't as the Lebanese military is extremely weak in comparison to Hezbollah's military forces.

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They could've, you know, gotten their soldiers back alive.

Not if they were already dead.

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So they should just let them get away with it?  You don't see a longterm problem with that kind of policy?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well losing 500 fighters and most of their infrastructure in Lebanon isn't exactly a small booboo.  AGAIN, I'm not saying this was a great or "significant" victory for anybody here, I'm saying it wasn't a tie.  Do I need to add a "militarily" caveat to the end of that line to make you happy?
[/quote]

I'm sure Hezbollah's propaganda victory has allowed them to recruit 500 more at least. Calling this a victory for Israel is like calling the Tet Offensive a victory for the US.

One thing's for sure: The Israelis didn't see it as a victory as the politics there showed.