French Presidential Primaries (MOVE TO INTL WHAT IFS!!!)

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Note: I'll be covering the UMP May primaries first, then PS and so forth.

May 18, 2006: Nicolas Sarkozy cancels a meeting in Gap, Hautes-Alpes and moves on to Meurthe-et-Moselle, Calvados and Eure-et-Loir, where his campaign is expecting a large victory but desire to work on achieving the largest margin possible in the primaries to maximize the amount of delegates for Sarkozy in those delegate-rich early primaries. Dominique de Villepin appears in Gap, but he too moves on to Calvados and Eure-et-Loir (he knows he has little chances in Meurthe-et-Moselle.

May 19, 2006: Following a deceiving showing in Jura, Michèle Alliot-Marie focuses on the Hautes-Alpes, where she is strong, and has the benefit of having her partner, the President of the National Assembly Patrick Ollier (who represented the department until 2002) working the ground for her and setting up an important local machine. Unlike Sarkozy and Villepin, she decides to keep troops in the Hautes-Alpes hoping to win a surprise underdog victory in the small mountainous department to increase her campaign's visibility.

May 21, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls: Sarkozy and Villepin's decision to skip the primary has played into the hands of Alliot-Marie, who, with this and the help of Ollier's influence, ate into Sarkozy's poll numbers.

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes UMP primary
Alliot-Marie 35%
Sarkozy 33%
Villepin 25%
Kaci 3%
Boutin 2%
Dupont-Aignan 2%

May 16, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes UMP Primary

Victor:

Michèle Alliot-Marie



Michèle Alliot-Marie 35.46% (8 )
Nicolas Sarkozy 31.97% (8 )
Dominique de Villepin 23.97% (5)
Rachid Kaci 5.61%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.98%
Christine Boutin 1.01%

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 22
de Villepin - 15
Alliot-Marie - 13
Needed for Nomination: 2,219


May 24, 2006: Alliot-Marie's victory in the Hautes-Alpes has helped her poll ratings in the May 28 primary departments, but she still trails in all of them. She attempts to setup a base in Meurthe-et-Moselle, which is a rich prize with its 49 delegates, but she struggles.

May 25, 2006: A primary debate between Sarkozy, Villepin, Alliot-Marie, Kaci, Boutin and Dupont-Aignan in Metz, Meurthe-et-Moselle. Sarkozy takes the upper hand on security and immigration, popular themes in a department which voted for the far-right in 2002. Alliot-Marie and Villepin are unable to play the experience card on Sarkozy, though they attempt to portray him as dangerous and too far to the right. Sarkozy is seen to have won the debate, though it only noticeably improves his numbers in Meurthe-et-Moselle (where Sarkozy is concentrating his forces).

Ipsos poll for the Meurthe-et-Moselle UMP primary
Sarkozy 46%
Villepin 30%
Alliot-Marie 20%
Dupont-Aignan 2%
Kaci 1%
Boutin 1%

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 31.01% (16)
Dominique de Villepin 30.13% (16)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 28.7% (15)
Rachid Kaci 6.11%
Christine Boutin 3.19%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.86%

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 36.55% (15)
Dominique de Villepin 28.64% (11)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 26.32% (11)
Rachid Kaci 5.64%
Christine Boutin 1.83%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.02%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 52.19% (27)
Dominique de Villepin 24.49% (13)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 17.85% (9)
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 2.37%
Rachid Kaci 1.99%
Christine Boutin 1.11%

May 29, 2008: Sarkozy had already started building up his powerful machine in the Bouches-du-Rhône, a very fertile ground for his campaign. He held a mass rally on the evening of the 28th in Marseille. His main focus was insecurity and immigration, a message also popular in the department with important North African immigration and insecurity problems.

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône UMP Primary

Victor:

Nicolas Sarkozy



Nicolas Sarkozy 50.09% (42)
Dominique de Villepin 33.11% (27)
Michèle Alliot-Marie 14.13% (11)
Rachid Kaci 1.02%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0.98%
Christine Boutin 0.67%

Delegates as of now:
Sarkozy - 122
de Villepin - 82
Alliot-Marie - 59
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Sarkozy: blue
Villepin: green
Alliot-Marie: red

[Antonio the Sixth]

The map is absolutely necessary... Waiting for the next update !

[big bad fab]

Sarkozy is ahead, but by low margins. The old chiraquian machinery, local barons and the influence of former UDF members seem to act as brakes for his acquiring of momentum.
May he be beaten by a coalition of Villepin and Alliot-Marie ?
Fortunately for him, Villepin won't be able to agree on dropping in favour of Alliot-Marie, the only one able to be a compromise candidate.
And Super Tuesday may well see Sarkozy clearly ahead, with some big prizes for him in the East and Ile-de-France.

In the PS, we can see Montebourg is already outsided. But Mélenchon, even with low scores, may be able to act as a kingmaker.

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May 18, 2006: Following his surprise win in the Jura, Dominique Strauss-Kahn attempts to keep his momentum in the Hautes-Alpes primary, but his machine is weak in the department and faces a Royal machine which has been established longer in the department.

May 20, 2006: Martine Aubry, Mayor of Lille and former Minister of Labour, endorses Laurent Fabius. Aubry holds sway over the Nord, the department with the most delegates - 92. However, for Fabius to take advantage of Aubry's machine, he will need to be in the race on August 6, a time at which a candidate could potentially already have taken the Socialist nomination.

May 21, 2006: Campaigning in the Bouches-du-Rhône, Arnaud Montebourg decries the "excessive control" of the local party federation by Patrick Menucci and Jean-Noël Guérini, close supporters of the Royal campaign. Royal denies that her supporters are using intimidation tactics in their home departments. 

May 22, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls: The primary was largely forgotten by most candidates, except Royal and DSK. Fabius and Montebourg had both declared that the department was not in their strategy.

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes PS primary
Strauss-Kahn 35%
Royal 34%
Mélenchon 15%
Fabius 8%
Montebourg 6%
Bockel 1%
Pupunat 1%

May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes PS  Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 36.19% (9)
Ségolène Royal 32.21% (8 )
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.02% (4)
Laurent Fabius 7.54%
Arnaud Montebourg 5.74%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.28%
Franck Pupunat 1.02%

May 24, 2006: Strauss-Kahn won a convincing victory, but the media largely ignored it and focused on the big campaigns in Calvados, Eure-et-Loir, and Meurthe-et-Moselle. All are classified as too close to call by the media.

May 25, 2006: A primary debate between DSK, Royal, Fabius, Montebourg, Mélenchon, Bockel and Pupunat is held in Caen, Calvados. Royal is cornered by Fabius, Mélenchon and Strauss-Kahn for her lack of political experience. However, the male candidates appear misogynist with their attacks on Royal, who manages to stay above personal attacks.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 25.14% (12)
Laurent Fabius 23.09% (11)
Ségolène Royal 21.09% (10)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 18.64% (9)
Arnaud Montebourg 10.64% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.97%
Franck Pupunat 0.43%

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 27.63% (12)
Ségolène Royal 24.63% (11)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 24.52% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.98% (4)
Arnaud Montebourg 9.11%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.02%
Franck Pupunat 1.11%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 28.98% (16)
Laurent Fabius 27.16% (15)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 19.64% (11)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.11% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 7.87%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.13%
Franck Pupunat 1.11%

May 29, 2008: Following a very divided primary day, with Fabius, Royal and... Mélenchon each winning a department each, the candidates moved on to Marseille and the Bouches-du-Rhône, a department controlled by the allies of Royal, who expected a large victory with the help of the local party machine. Arnaud Montebourg, who had polled much lower than expected in the three primaries, did not drop out but warned that he would drop out if he did poorly on Super Tuesday (June 6).

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 63.57% (80)
Laurent Fabius 9.98%
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 9.96%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.12%
Arnaud Montebourg 6.53%
Franck Pupunat 1.09%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.75%

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 133
DSK - 47
Fabius - 45
Mélenchon - 30
Montebourg - 8
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

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May 19, 2006: François Bayrou decides to skip the Hautes-Alpes primary, while Gilles de Robien only stages one rally in Gap on the evening of the 19th. He is hoping for a surprise win in the Hautes-Alpes against Bayrou.

May 21, 2006: In a surprise move, the President of the UDF parliamentary caucus, Hervé Morin, endorses Gilles de Robien over Bayrou. At the same time, Gilles de Robien distances himself from the government and attempts to build a more "independent" image while still reminding voters of the centre-right roots of the UDF and the danger that an alliance with the left would represent.

May 22, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls: Bayrou, despite not campaigning in the department, remains narrowly ahead.

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes UDF primary
Bayrou 52%
de Robien 48%

May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes UDF  Primary

Victor:

Gilles de Robien



Gilles de Robien 52.19% (11)
François Bayrou 47.81% (10)

May 24, 2006: de Robien, strong from a high-profile endorsement from a "Bayrouiste", won a surprise victory in the Hautes-Alpes. His next step was the Calvados, where he relied on the support of Claude Leteurtre, a UDF deputy from the Calvados close to Robien. de Robien also had his eyes on Eure-et-Loir, where internal polls gave him good numbers.

May 25, 2006: Bayrou refuses a primary debate for the 25th with de Robien.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados UDF Primary

Victor:

Gilles de Robien



Gilles de Robien 56.17% (26)
François Bayrou 43.83% (21)

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir UDF Primary

Victor:

Gilles de Robien



Gilles de Robien 50.09% (19)
François Bayrou 49.91% (18)

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle UDF Primary

Victor:

François Bayrou



François Bayrou 61.13% (30)
Gilles de Robien 38.87% (19)

May 29, 2008: Robien had a good day, winning two out of three primaries, though he badly lost the third one in Meurthe-et-Moselle. The attention turned to the Bouches-du-Rhône, where Bayrou had a lead in polls.

Ipsos poll for the Bouches-du-Rhône UDF primary (May 26)
Bayrou 63%
de Robien 37%

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône UDF Primary

Victor:

François Bayrou



François Bayrou 57.19% (46)
Gilles de Robien 42.81% (34)

Delegates as of now:
Bayrou - 142
de Robien - 121
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Bayrou: orange
de Robien: blue

[big bad fab]

Some suspense in the UDF, fine !
And it can be believed, as the UDF members in 2006 were of course far more centre-rightists than the miwed bunch of the current MoDem.

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May 19, 2006: Despite Voynet's landslide in her home department of Jura, the national race for the Green nomination appeared to be close. A national poll by CSA gave Voynet 41%, Cochet 39%, Wehrling 11% and Contassot 9%. Surprisingly, both major candidates - Voynet and Cochet - campaigned for the minor Hautes-Alpes primary.

May 22, 2006 - Final Hautes-Alpes polls:

Ipsos poll for the Hautes-Alpes Green primary
Voynet 44%
Cochet 40%
Contassot 8%
Wehrling 7%

May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes Green Primary

Victor:

Yves Cochet



Yves Cochet 42.63% (11)
Dominique Voynet 41.02% (10)
Yves Contassot 9.91%
Yann Wehrling 6.44%

May 24, 2006: Yves Cochet, strong from a surprise win in the Hautes-Alpes, shifts his machine to the Calvados where he is hoping for a strong victory. Voynet focused her efforts on Meurthe-et-Moselle, and, later, the Bouches-du-Rhône.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados Green Primary

Victor:

Yves Cochet



Yves Cochet 50.11% (25)
Dominique Voynet 34.32% (17)
Yann Wehrling 10.02% (5)
Yves Contassot 5.55%

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir Green Primary

Victor:

Yves Cochet



Yves Cochet 40.11% (17)
Dominique Voynet 39.68% (16)
Yann Wehrling 10.23% (4)
Yves Contassot 9.98%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle Green Primary

Victor:

Dominique Voynet



Dominique Voynet 51.13% (27)
Yves Cochet 41.09% (22)
Yves Contassot 4.59%
Yann Wehrling 3.19%

May 29, 2008: The Green race was turning in a two-candidate race between Cochet and Voynet, with Wehrling as an outsider - but a possible kingmaker if the race ended up tied. The ultra-left current represented by Yves Contassot was sidelined by Voynet, as if the left of the party united behind her and not Contassot. Contassot had no delegates as of now and announced that he would hold a press conference on June 1 following the crucial Bouches-du-Rhône primary.

Ipsos poll for the Bouches-du-Rhône Green primary
Voynet 41%
Cochet 33%
Wehrling 15%
Contassot 11%

Wehrling benefited from the support of Jean-Luc Bennahmias, a centrist Green MEP from the department.

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône Green Primary

Victor:

Dominique Voynet



Dominique Voynet 41.29% (36)
Yves Cochet 34.16% (30)
Yann Wehrling 16.97% (14)
Yves Contassot 7.58%

Delegates as of now:
Voynet - 130
Cochet - 99
Wehrling - 23
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Voynet: green
Cochet: orange
Contassot: red

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May 21, 2006: In the race for the Communist nomination, Buffet was far ahead though Gerin was winning surprisingly high results, a good sign for future primaries? There was little contest in the Hautes-Alpes, where all candidates except Buffet had not campaigned.


May 23, 2006 - The Hautes-Alpes PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 78.95% (17)
Roger Martelli 10.92% (2)
André Gérin 10.13% (2)

May 24, 2006: The primaries in the Calvados and Eure-et-Loir were mostly under the radar, due to a weak party in those areas in general. However, the contest was in the Meurthe-et-Moselle and the Bouches-du-Rhône. Both departments had stronger PCF infrastructure.

May 28, 2006 - The Calvados PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 69.17% (33)
Roger Martelli 15.97% (7)
André Gérin 14.86% (7)

May 28, 2006 - The Eure-et-Loir PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 67.16% (28)
Roger Martelli 23.16% (9)
André Gérin 9.68%

May 28, 2006 - The Meurthe-et-Moselle PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 58.17% (28)
Roger Martelli 24.60% (12)
André Gérin 18.67% (9)

May 29, 2008: Gérin's surprising score in the Jura did not hold up and the reformist candidate Roger Martelli, despite a very low name recognition, took the second place in the PCF race while Gérin hovered slightly above 10% nationally. The race moved to the Bouches-du-Rhône, an historical stronghold of the PCF.

May 30, 2006: The Bouches-du-Rhône PCF Primary

Victor:

Marie-George Buffet



Marie-George Buffet 43.56% (35)
Roger Martelli 35.96% (29)
André Gérin 20.48% (16)

Delegates as of now:
Buffet - 160
Martelli - 59
Gérin - 44
Needed for Nomination: 2,219



Buffet: red

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The month of June for the PS will be covered first, this will take quite some time as June is a very heavy month for primaries. Then the UMP, UDF, Greenies and Communists.

[big bad fab]

Some comments on very low name-recognition for Martelli are disputed, as, inside the party, he is a "réformateur" brain for a very, very long time.

He's surprisingly high in Meurthe-et-Moselle, probably an orthodox federation.
But, sure, the PCF is now a narrower party and commentators and analysts have some difficulty in knowing federations' current trend.

Buffet shoudl be aware that all the Northern federations (Nord, PdC, Somme, Aisne) may be hardly fought by Gerin, as around Lyon (in Rhône, Loire, Isère, Allier), and in Val-de-Marne.

And that Martelli, with his small momentum, may be very competitive in Limousin, in the South-West and in Languedoc.

Of course, she remains the favourite, with her central position.

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May 31, 2006: After Royal's landslide victory in the Bouches-du-Rhône primary, which resulted in her winning 64% of the vote and winning all 80 delegates - a huge prize - due to the division of her opponents, none of which broke 10% (Fabius and DSK were only a handful of votes away from 10%, which led them and Montebourg to decry fraud and intimidation in the primary, organized by the pro-Royal local federation.

June 2, 2006: A primary debate between DSK, Royal, Fabius, Montebourg, Mélenchon, Bockel and Pupunat is held in Strasbourg, Bas-Rhin. Strauss-Kahn is perceived to be the winner.

June 3, 2006: In a major boost for Strauss-Kahn, the First Secretary of the PS, François Hollande, endorses Strauss-Kahn over his partner, Royal. The endorsement gives a boost to Strauss-Kahn, though it reinforces his image as the candidate of the party "establishment". He is also endorsed by the Mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoë.

June 4, 2006: The major figure of the left of the PS, Henri Emanuelli endorses
Jean-Luc Mélenchon while also calling for the unity of the PS' left-wing. This is aimed specifically at his former ally from the Mans Congress and former member of the NPS, Arnaud Montebourg.

June 5, 2006 - Final Super Tuesday polls: The Super Tuesday primaries are only a day away, and all candidates are frantically campaigning in the last 24 hours. A number of primaries are classified as too close to call.

June 6, 2006 - The Aisne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 35.63% (17)
Ségolène Royal 26.53% (12)
Laurent Fabius 16.43% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 12.34% (6)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.75%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.19%
Franck Pupunat 1.13%

June 6, 2006 - The Allier PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 26.11% (9)
Ségolène Royal 24.56% (9)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 20.09% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 14.70% (5)
Arnaud Montebourg 11.34% (4)
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.99%
Franck Pupunat 1.21%

June 6, 2006 - The Alpes-Maritimes PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 39.11% (25)
Laurent Fabius 19.97% (13)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.11% (12)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 15.69% (10)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.49%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.98%
Franck Pupunat 0.65%

June 6, 2006 - The Ardèche PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 34.19% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 24.92% (9)
Laurent Fabius 19.16% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 13.17% (4)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.43%
Franck Pupunat 1.11%

June 6, 2006 - The Charente-Maritime PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 48.73% (25)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.67% (8 )
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 14.47% (7)
Laurent Fabius 10.02% (5)
Arnaud Montebourg 7.91%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%
Franck Pupunat 1.19%

June 6, 2006 - The Corrèze PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 56.19% (22)
Ségolène Royal 15.62% (6)
Laurent Fabius 9.19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 6.21%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.87%
Franck Pupunat 1.21%

June 6, 2006 - The Corse-du-Sud PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 65.02% (16)
Ségolène Royal 12.13% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 11.58% (2)
Laurent Fabius 6.09%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.56%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.98%
Franck Pupunat 0.64%

TBC...

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June 6, 2006 - The Haute-Corse PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 73.19% (23)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 9.22%
Ségolène Royal 8.76%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 4.45%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.31%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.75%
Franck Pupunat 0.42%

June 6, 2006 - The Doubs PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 45.16% (21)
Ségolène Royal 23.64% (11)
Laurent Fabius 12.41% (5)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.13% (4)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.19%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.45%
Franck Pupunat 1.02%

June 6, 2006 - The Drôme PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 32.20% (14)
Ségolène Royal 30.59% (14)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.63% (7)
Laurent Fabius 13.02% (5)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.73%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.67%
Franck Pupunat 1.16%

June 6, 2006 - The Eure PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 40.19% (19)
Ségolène Royal 21.89% (10)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 17.16% (8 )
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.19% (6)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.02%
Franck Pupunat 0.53%

June 6, 2006 - The Gironde PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 26.73% (21)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 24.87% (19)
Ségolène Royal 21.32% (16)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 16.17% (12)
Arnaud Montebourg 7.86%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.98%
Franck Pupunat 1.07%

June 6, 2006 - The Hérault PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 46.17% (29)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 20.13% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.19% (9)
Laurent Fabius 13.29% (8 )
Arnaud Montebourg 4.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.14%
Franck Pupunat 1.06%

June 6, 2006 - The Ille-et-Vilaine PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 35.58% (22)
Ségolène Royal 24.19% (15)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18.75% (12)
Laurent Fabius 12.02% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.19%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.16%
Franck Pupunat 2.11%

June 6, 2006 - The Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 29.86% (17)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 28.54% (16)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 15.43% (9)
Laurent Fabius 13.98% (8 )
Arnaud Montebourg 8.99%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.98%
Franck Pupunat 1.22%

June 6, 2006 - The Marne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 29.11% (14)
Ségolène Royal 22.12% (11)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 21.02% (10)
Laurent Fabius 17.89% (8 )
Arnaud Montebourg 6.66%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.98%
Franck Pupunat 1.22%

June 6, 2006 - The Martinique PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 46.16% (20)
Laurent Fabius 23.16% (10)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 13.92% (6)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.65%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.11%
Franck Pupunat 2.99%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Nièvre PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 32.11% (11)
Ségolène Royal 26.02% (9)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 20.54% (7)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 9.00%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.88%
Franck Pupunat 1.43%

June 6, 2006 - The Orne PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 52.39% (19)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 14.68% (5)
Laurent Fabius 13.02% (4)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.11% (3)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.02%
Franck Pupunat 2.11%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.67%

June 6, 2006 - The Pas-de-Calais PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 42.19% (33)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 21.33% (16)
Ségolène Royal 15.14% (11)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13.27% (10)
Arnaud Montebourg 4.89%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.75%
Franck Pupunat 1.43%

June 6, 2006 - The Bas-Rhin PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 47.19% (36)
Ségolène Royal 18.73% (14)
Laurent Fabius 14.10% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.67%
Jean-Marie Bockel 7.56%
Arnaud Montebourg 2.89%
Franck Pupunat 0.86%

[Hash]

June 6, 2006 - The Deux-Sèvres PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 69.84% (35)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 9.89%
Laurent Fabius 9.67%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 6.13%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.02%
Franck Pupunat 0.67%
Jean-Marie Bockel 0.78%

June 6, 2006 - The Vosges PS Primary

Victor:

Laurent Fabius



Laurent Fabius 46.11% (20)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 24.02% (10)
Ségolène Royal 15.78% (6)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 8.95%
Arnaud Montebourg 3.02%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.11%
Franck Pupunat 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Yonne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 27.16% (10)
Laurent Fabius 25.42% (9)
Ségolène Royal 21.14% (8 )
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 18.54% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 5.49%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.24%
Franck Pupunat 1.01%

June 6, 2006 - The Yvelines PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 29.81% (23)
Ségolène Royal 24.17% (18)
Laurent Fabius 21.13% (16)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14.39% (11)
Arnaud Montebourg 6.42%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.79%
Franck Pupunat 1.29%

June 6, 2006 - The Val-de-Marne PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 40.16% (29)
Ségolène Royal 25.64% (18)
Laurent Fabius 16.52% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.12% (7)
Arnaud Montebourg 4.13%
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.30%
Franck Pupunat 1.13%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting. I wish DSK will win...

[Hash]

Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 506
DSK - 371
Fabius - 315
Mélenchon - 206
Montebourg - 12
Needed for Nomination: 2,219

Errors, of course, very possible.

[big bad fab]

Rumors of Montebourg's withdrawal after the Super Tuesday ?
He's really in a bad position.
But, maybe Royal's aides aren't diplomat enough to convince him to rally her...

Mélenchon is clearly a handicap for Fabius, who has done badly in Gironde, an old Fabiusian federation.

It seems as if the candidate will be decided during the convention, as DSK isn't crushed by Royal (he can foresee big prizes in Paris, Loire-Atlantique, Hauts-de-Seine, maybe Haute-Garonne; but, sure, Royal has still Rhône, Isère, Indre-et-Loire where she may be competitive, ... or not ?).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fabius + Mélenchon... How could the "left of the left" weigh 521 delegates, more than DSK ?

[Hash]

Delegates allocated on June 6 (PS)
Royal - 373
DSK - 324
Fabius - 270
Mélenchon - 176
Montebourg - 4

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 506 (35.89%)
DSK - 371 (26.31%)
Fabius - 315 (22.34%)
Mélenchon - 206 (14.61%)
Montebourg - 12 (0.85%)
Allocated - 1,410 (31.79%)
Needed for Nomination: 2,219

[Hash]

June 7, 2006: Arnaud Montebourg announces that he is dropping out of the race for the Socialist nomination without making an immediate endorsement.

June 8, 2006: Franck Pupunat drops out of the race for the Socialist nomination and endorses Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Pupunat was a fringe candidate throughout the early primaries and never came close to winning delegates. The field is narrowed down from 7 to 5, including four "major" candidates.

June 9, 2006: For the first time since the start of the race, Royal no longer leads IFOP's nationwide primary surveys. The latest poll had Strauss-Kahn ahead of her with 28% against 26% for her. Fabius had 21%, Mélenchon had 16% and Bockel had 3%.

June 10, 2006 - Final Rural Tuesday polls: The 'Rural' Tuesday primaries are only hours away, and Royal seems to have the upper hand in most of them partly due to the support of the local party establishment.

June 11, 2006 - The Alpes-de-Haute Provence PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 50.45% (13)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 22.17% (5)
Laurent Fabius 13.45% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.09% (2)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.89%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.93%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

June 11, 2006 - The Aveyron PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 29.86% (10)
Ségolène Royal 25.69% (7)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 23.14% (8)
Laurent Fabius 17.47% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 3.51%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.32%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Cantal PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 44.16% (10)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 30.09% (7)
Ségolène Royal 12.19% (3)
Laurent Fabius 10.16% (2)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.96%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.43%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Haute-Loire PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 43.12% (12)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 29.16% (8)
Laurent Fabius 13.29% (4)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 12.19% (3)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.02%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.21%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 11, 2006 - The Lot PS Primary

Victor:

Dominique Strauss-Kahn



Dominique Strauss-Kahn 37.86% (10)
Ségolène Royal 33.42% (8)
Laurent Fabius 16.02% (4)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10.42% (2)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.24%
Franck Pupunat 0.03%

June 11, 2006 - The Lozère PS Primary

Victor:

Ségolène Royal



Ségolène Royal 55.72% (11)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 19.89% (3)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.12% (2)
Laurent Fabius 7.64%
Jean-Marie Bockel 1.53%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.09%
Franck Pupunat 0.01%

June 12, 2006 - The Haute-Marne PS Primary

Victor:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon



Jean-Luc Mélenchon 27.09% (7)
Ségolène Royal 26.89% (7)
Dominique Strauss-Kahn 23.28% (6)
Laurent Fabius 20.39% (5)
Jean-Marie Bockel 2.01%
Arnaud Montebourg 0.32%
Franck Pupunat 0.02%

Royal: red
Fabius: blue
DSK: green
Mélenchon: orange

Delegates as of now:
Royal - 567
DSK - 418
Fabius - 338
Mélenchon - 242
Uncommitted (Montebourg) - 12
Needed for Nomination: 2,219

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still can't understand why the "nonists" are so strong.

[big bad fab]

Add Hamon and Fabius (which represented the most Aubry vote) in the first round of last autumn internal elections and it's about that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Add Hamon and Fabius (which represented the most Aubry vote) in the first round of last autumn internal elections and it's about that.

Yes, but remember that in 2006 Fabius, who was the only "PS left-wing" candidate, was clearly behind both Royal and Strauss-Khan.

[big bad fab]

Add Hamon and Fabius (which represented the most Aubry vote) in the first round of last autumn internal elections and it's about that.

Yes, but remember that in 2006 Fabius, who was the only "PS left-wing" candidate, was clearly behind both Royal and Strauss-Khan.

Sure, but Royal was a catch-all candidate, she was "beyond" 2005 debate.

And in December 2004, a vote inside the PS gave ONLY 58% to the "yes".
Contrary to many comments at the time, it wasn't a "massive" approval: the PS should have been the most European party with the UDF...

So 42% for the "no" 18 months before the 2006 primaries are a good "base" for Hash's very fine what-if !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Add Hamon and Fabius (which represented the most Aubry vote) in the first round of last autumn internal elections and it's about that.

Yes, but remember that in 2006 Fabius, who was the only "PS left-wing" candidate, was clearly behind both Royal and Strauss-Khan.

Sure, but Royal was a catch-all candidate, she was "beyond" 2005 debate.

And in December 2004, a vote inside the PS gave ONLY 58% to the "yes".
Contrary to many comments at the time, it wasn't a "massive" approval: the PS should have been the most European party with the UDF...

So 42% for the "no" 18 months before the 2006 primaries are a good "base" for Hash's very fine what-if !

You should be right, though it's really depressing...

[Хahar 🤔]

Hey, be sure to turn off smilies in your posts.