Rocky Mountain Poll: McCain leads by just 5 points in Maricopa County, Arizona.

[Tender Branson]

McCain: 43%
Obama: 38%
Nader: 3%
Undecided: 16%

This Rocky Mountain Poll is based on 401 interviews with Maricopa County voters, conducted between July 18 and 24, 2008. Where necessary, figures for age, sex, race and political party were weighted to bring them into line with their actual proportion in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with a 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 5.0 percent of what they would have been had the entire population been surveyed. The Rocky Mountain Poll is conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona and is an independent and non-partisan research program sponsored by the Center.

http://www.brcpolls.com/08/RMP%202008-III-01.pdf

...

In 2000, Maricopa County was about 4.1% more Republican than AZ as a whole, in 2004 it was 4.2%.

[Alcon]

Clearly Arizona is a swing state.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Mark,

This is one of the most absurd polls presented at the forum in recent weeks.

First, the incorrectly identify Nader as the Green party candidate.

Second, while they listed Nader, they did not list Barr (who is doing far better than Nader in Arizona)

Third, if you look at the internals, they show Nader doing better among Republicans than among Democrats (and as well as among what are identified in the poll ad "independents")

Fourth, they have a really awful history over the past few years of being highly inaccurate.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

CARL,

Are you really buying into the Zogby poll that has Barr with 7% in Arizona? If not, we have no idea if he's doing far better than Nader is or not.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL,

Are you really buying into the Zogby poll that has Barr with 7% in Arizona? If not, we have no idea if he's doing far better than Nader is or not.

Before he began pressuring people, Rasmussen got about the same result in Arizona.

[Vsanto5]

maricopa county.  McCain will win AZ no doubt.  That is all.

[Alcon]

CARL,

Are you really buying into the Zogby poll that has Barr with 7% in Arizona? If not, we have no idea if he's doing far better than Nader is or not.

Before he began pressuring people, Rasmussen got about the same result in Arizona.

And got a pretty comparable Libertarian result in New Mexico in 2004 too, and look how that turned out...