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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Historical Post Convention Bounces
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Author Topic: Historical Post Convention Bounces  (Read 1508 times)
zorkpolitics
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« on: September 04, 2004, 03:12:34 pm »

Gallop has been doing polls longer than anyone, so one could say they are the official keepers of the Bounce.  So they have put up a table of Bounces back to 1964.

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12919

Although its generally thought that Kerry got about a 3% Bounce this year, by the Gallop Survey, he had a -1% bounce.  Kerry was the only candidate to ever get a negative bounce in their surveys.

The Gallop site always has their last poll up, the last Gallop Poll had Bush ahead by 3, 50% to 47%, so when the next Gallop poll comes out he will need to expand his lead more than 3% to get a positive bounce.  The early surveys (Time, Newsweek, Rasmussen) suggest he will.  My guess is Gallop will show Bush 52   Kerry 44 for a net +5 bounce.



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PBrunsel
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2004, 03:17:10 pm »

Thomas Dewey recieved a steep blow in the polls after his acceptance address in 1948, but Truman got a bit of a bounce. Of course Dewey stayed ahead of Truman the whole time when it came to the polls, but Truman's fire breathing convention speech in 1948 helped him g et a bounce.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2004, 08:20:16 pm »

I thought McGovern got a negative bounce as well?
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ATFFL
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2004, 08:25:09 pm »

I thought McGovern got a negative bounce as well?

McGovern stayed flat.  
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2004, 05:22:37 pm »

Humphrey lost 35 points mid-convention, but gained about sixteen of those points back after hisa acceptance speech.
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