WA-08/SurveyUSA: Reichert leads Burner by 6

[Tender Branson]

Reichert (R): 50%
Burner (D): 44%

SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Washington state registered voters 07/27/08 through 07/29/08, using registration-based sample from Aristotle. Of the registered voters, 688 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. 37 of Washington's 39 counties vote exclusively by mail; ballots must be postmarked no later than Election Day, 11/04/08.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9ebce7e6-fba8-46a9-8b11-78ac60b0a782

[Flying Dog]

No sympathy support?

[MarkWarner08]

Right where the race should be. It's good to see some confirmation of my rating of this race. While Cook, Rothenberg, CQ, and Swing State Project have WA-08 pegged as a "Tossup," I've rated it as a Tossup/Tilts Republican race. Dave Reichert, like Jim Gerlach, has established his own brand in the district. As Alcon and others have noted, WA is also more immune to national political tides. Residual good will for capturing the Green River Killer hasn't hurt his popularity, either.

Burner has an impressive academic resume (double major at Harvard), a strong professional background (rising to become a female executive at male-dominated Microsoft), but her political experience couldn't fill a paragraph on a resume. In such a professional-laden district, the experience gap, which probably won the '06 race for Reichert, could be decisive yet again.

[Sam Spade]

Add to the fact that me and Keystone Phil could probably conduct a better campaign from the confines of the Atlas Forum and you have me placing it even lower.

[Keystone Phil]

Add to the fact that me and Keystone Phil could probably conduct a better campaign from the confines of the Atlas Forum and you have me placing it even lower.

Not exactly sure if that is meant as half compliment to you, half insult to me...or maybe just full insult to both of us...

[MarkWarner08]

Add to the fact that me and Keystone Phil could probably conduct a better campaign from the confines of the Atlas Forum and you have me placing it even lower.

Yes, but we both have it ranked as the 18th most likely GOP seat to flip.

[Sam Spade]

Add to the fact that me and Keystone Phil could probably conduct a better campaign from the confines of the Atlas Forum and you have me placing it even lower.

Yes, but we both have it ranked as the 18th most likely GOP seat to flip.

Considering what's below it, that's the correct answer for now.

[Beet]

Residual good will for capturing the Green River Killer hasn't hurt his popularity, either.

Actually, the Green River Killer was caught by improved DNA technology which became available in the mid-1990s which a low level technician decided to take advantage of independently of Reichert. If anything, Republican budget cuts delayed the dissemination of the technology from federal to regional authorities. Reichert, a member of the failed task force for the better part of a decade, just takes credit for it.

[MarkWarner08]

Residual good will for capturing the Green River Killer hasn't hurt his popularity, either.

Actually, the Green River Killer was caught by improved DNA technology which became available in the mid-1990s which a low level technician decided to take advantage of independently of Reichert. If anything, Republican budget cuts delayed the dissemination of the technology from federal to regional authorities. Reichert, a member of the failed task force for the better part of a decade, just takes credit for it.

Great point. Sadly, most voters miss the nuance behind the issue. It's much easier to just laud the swaggering Sheriff for capturing the criminal.

[Alcon]

Burner's problem is that she's running a Seattle campaign in a suburban district.  She needs to shift from Seattle to Redmond, and some Renton wouldn't hurt either.  WA-1 would eat her up.  WA-8 will not.

[Sam Spade]

Burner's problem is that she's running a Seattle campaign in a suburban district.  She needs to shift from Seattle to Redmond, and some Renton wouldn't hurt either.  WA-1 would eat her up.  WA-8 will not.

o rly?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As Alcon and others have noted, WA is also more immune to national political tides.

Not in 1994, it wasn't.  Yikes.

[Dan the Roman]

The consensus here is probably correct but did anyone notice that the partisan id in this poll is 35% R 34% D 27%I, while the one last month was 37% D 33% R 26% I? Burner was down 14 points among independents in June and is tied now.

check out the June poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b0b522d3-c821-4ab4-9b46-ed3193051829

That said I tend to agree with the judgments about Burner being a poor candidate running a mediocre campaign. That said this is an increasingly tough district for a Republican. Kerry won it by 3, and Obama will probably win it by 6 or 7 easily. Is there any Republican in the country not named Chris Shays or Mike Castle who holds a seat that Democratic?

I think we will get a clue with the August primary numbers, but I have hunch that this district is running away from Reichert, and I for one would not be so quick to write off Burner just because she is weak. She will benefit enormously from the turnout dynamic, and this is not really Rossi's turf. Need I remind you that on 10/30 2006, Rossi led her 51-45 in another surveryusa poll, and she came within 2 points of winning?

Also, can a candidate win the top-2 primary outright if they get over 50%?  Given the way primary turnout has been going this year, if I were Reichert I would put some real effort into turnout if that's the case.

[MarkWarner08]

The consensus here is probably correct but did anyone notice that the partisan id in this poll is 35% R 34% D 27%I, while the one last month was 37% D 33% R 26% I? Burner was down 14 points among independents in June and is tied now.

check out the June poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b0b522d3-c821-4ab4-9b46-ed3193051829

That said I tend to agree with the judgments about Burner being a poor candidate running a mediocre campaign. That said this is an increasingly tough district for a Republican. Kerry won it by 3, and Obama will probably win it by 6 or 7 easily. Is there any Republican in the country not named Chris Shays or Mike Castle who holds a seat that Democratic?

I think we will get a clue with the August primary numbers, but I have hunch that this district is running away from Reichert, and I for one would not be so quick to write off Burner just because she is weak. She will benefit enormously from the turnout dynamic, and this is not really Rossi's turf. Need I remind you that on 10/30 2006, Rossi led her 51-45 in another surveryusa poll, and she came within 2 points of winning?

Also, can a candidate win the top-2 primary outright if they get over 50%?  Given the way primary turnout has been going this year, if I were Reichert I would put some real effort into turnout if that's the case.

Rossi led Burner? The Kirk, Gerlach, Dent, Wilson, and Saxton seats all have the same or higher +D PVIs.

I agree that this district is tilting Democratic. But like other affluent D-trending seats such as IL-10 and PA-06, the Democratic candidate has no electoral wins under his belt. In each of this districts, the Republican incumbent has created his own brand (just like Collins has done in Maine). It's very difficult to convince voters that their Congressman isn't as moderate as he says he is. The assiduous work Reichert and Kirk have put into constituent services also pays off come election day. Right now, I give these incumbents the benefit of the doubt.

[Sam Spade]

Also, can a candidate win the top-2 primary outright if they get over 50%?

No.  Only if no other candidate gets more than 1%.

[quote]The two candidates who receive the most votes in the Primary Election qualify for the General Election. Candidates must also receive at least 1% of the votes cast in that race to advance to the General Election./quote]

http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/Top2PrimaryFAQ.aspx

[Dan the Roman]

The consensus here is probably correct but did anyone notice that the partisan id in this poll is 35% R 34% D 27%I, while the one last month was 37% D 33% R 26% I? Burner was down 14 points among independents in June and is tied now.

check out the June poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b0b522d3-c821-4ab4-9b46-ed3193051829

That said I tend to agree with the judgments about Burner being a poor candidate running a mediocre campaign. That said this is an increasingly tough district for a Republican. Kerry won it by 3, and Obama will probably win it by 6 or 7 easily. Is there any Republican in the country not named Chris Shays or Mike Castle who holds a seat that Democratic?

I think we will get a clue with the August primary numbers, but I have hunch that this district is running away from Reichert, and I for one would not be so quick to write off Burner just because she is weak. She will benefit enormously from the turnout dynamic, and this is not really Rossi's turf. Need I remind you that on 10/30 2006, Rossi led her 51-45 in another surveryusa poll, and she came within 2 points of winning?

Also, can a candidate win the top-2 primary outright if they get over 50%?  Given the way primary turnout has been going this year, if I were Reichert I would put some real effort into turnout if that's the case.

Rossi led Burner? The Kirk, Gerlach, Dent, Wilson, and Saxton seats all have the same or higher +D PVIs.

I agree that this district is tilting Democratic. But like other affluent D-trending seats such as IL-10 and PA-06, the Democratic candidate has no electoral wins under his belt. In each of this districts, the Republican incumbent has created his own brand (just like Collins has done in Maine). It's very difficult to convince voters that their Congressman isn't as moderate as he says he is. The assiduous work Reichert and Kirk have put into constituent services also pays off come election day. Right now, I give these incumbents the benefit of the doubt.

Collins is a bad example, because Maine is not a transient state. It has a generally elderly electorate this very stable so people have come to know her over the course of more than a decade. The problem with suburban districts like WA-8 is that they are family districts. People move in to raise their kids, their kids leave for college, and the parents move out. Very few people live in them for much more than a decade. This is especially true of WA-8 where a large portion of the population was attracted from other places to work at tech jobs in Seattle. Reichert clearly has a committed base among longtime residents, but I think you underestimate how much many residents of this district care who their congressman is vs. who controls congress. If you have only lived in the district for six or seven years and may be transferred at any time, the issues that matter more are national. Collins can get away with being to the right of Maine on some national issues, because she has amazing constituency service.

Maintaining your "brand" can be hard in these districts - ask Charlie Bass who we could have been having the exact same conversation about in 2006, and he was far more entrenched in his district than Reichert was.

Anyway here is the 10/31 poll that shows Reichert leading Burner(I doubt Rossi was ever polled against her):

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c9a3ec6-8df0-48bb-b8d4-e35eabb35ad5

[MarkWarner08]

The consensus here is probably correct but did anyone notice that the partisan id in this poll is 35% R 34% D 27%I, while the one last month was 37% D 33% R 26% I? Burner was down 14 points among independents in June and is tied now.

check out the June poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b0b522d3-c821-4ab4-9b46-ed3193051829

That said I tend to agree with the judgments about Burner being a poor candidate running a mediocre campaign. That said this is an increasingly tough district for a Republican. Kerry won it by 3, and Obama will probably win it by 6 or 7 easily. Is there any Republican in the country not named Chris Shays or Mike Castle who holds a seat that Democratic?

I think we will get a clue with the August primary numbers, but I have hunch that this district is running away from Reichert, and I for one would not be so quick to write off Burner just because she is weak. She will benefit enormously from the turnout dynamic, and this is not really Rossi's turf. Need I remind you that on 10/30 2006, Rossi led her 51-45 in another surveryusa poll, and she came within 2 points of winning?

Also, can a candidate win the top-2 primary outright if they get over 50%?  Given the way primary turnout has been going this year, if I were Reichert I would put some real effort into turnout if that's the case.

Rossi led Burner? The Kirk, Gerlach, Dent, Wilson, and Saxton seats all have the same or higher +D PVIs.

I agree that this district is tilting Democratic. But like other affluent D-trending seats such as IL-10 and PA-06, the Democratic candidate has no electoral wins under his belt. In each of this districts, the Republican incumbent has created his own brand (just like Collins has done in Maine). It's very difficult to convince voters that their Congressman isn't as moderate as he says he is. The assiduous work Reichert and Kirk have put into constituent services also pays off come election day. Right now, I give these incumbents the benefit of the doubt.

Collins is a bad example, because Maine is not a transient state. It has a generally elderly electorate this very stable so people have come to know her over the course of more than a decade. The problem with suburban districts like WA-8 is that they are family districts. People move in to raise their kids, their kids leave for college, and the parents move out. Very few people live in them for much more than a decade. This is especially true of WA-8 where a large portion of the population was attracted from other places to work at tech jobs in Seattle. Reichert clearly has a committed base among longtime residents, but I think you underestimate how much many residents of this district care who their congressman is vs. who controls congress. If you have only lived in the district for six or seven years and may be transferred at any time, the issues that matter more are national. Collins can get away with being to the right of Maine on some national issues, because she has amazing constituency service.

Maintaining your "brand" can be hard in these districts - ask Charlie Bass who we could have been having the exact same conversation about in 2006, and he was far more entrenched in his district than Reichert was.

Anyway here is the 10/31 poll that shows Reichert leading Burner(I doubt Rossi was ever polled against her):

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2c9a3ec6-8df0-48bb-b8d4-e35eabb35ad5

If voters here were more susceptible to national trends, why was the "swing" only 1%? Because Burner's inexperience (Reichert ran a devastating "job interview" ad  that highlighted her sparse resume. Ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFXfChUeNiQ) was more salient to successful professional with no partisan affiliation (i.e., those in the mushy middle) than Reichert's party status. With this information in mind, Burner's inexperience and her Democratic propensity to back higher taxes  become more relevant to these voters' decisions.

Unless Burner can magically conjure up a decade of experience in Olympia as a pragmatic moderate, she's probably doomed to be once again defined as a novice who will blindly follow the Democrats on taxes.


I cited Collins, not Maine, as an example of a pol who has deftly protected her political brand.

Bass is the exception to the rule. 2006 was the worst year for the NH GOP since 1932. They even lose the swing seat on the Executive Council to an old guy who was on vacation in Europe on Election Night. Other vulnerable Republicans who had kept close ties to their districts survived (Chabot, Wilson, Pryce, Gerlach, and Kirk all come to mind). If Reichert continues to stress his moderate votes (watch him explain how he compiles a moderate voting record: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3ugn9eJoEo), he should once again win by a narrow margin.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting to note how little polling has changed in two years.  I wonder if it ever will.

[bgwah]

Reichert will win. The Democrats will easily win this district when they can come up with a decent candidate. But as long as they keep running Dave Ross/Darcy Burner types, they will continue to hand Dave free victories and keep the 8th Reich alive a lot longer than it should be!

[ottermax]

There are so many more Democrats in the Eastside because of all the new condos and new neighborhoods. There has been so much growth in this area and I don't understand how Reichert can be winning. I just hope she does better than last time. Come on Democrats, where are you?

I have no idea what to expect, but I hope that Burner can pull this off. As much as it looks like a good race for Reichert, I think it is still a tossup, sort of.

By the way, Reichert is the only Republican who represents me on any state or federal level. I really don't get it. Ugh, it's too bad he is probably the best Republican out there for my district, in fact I really don't mind him that much. If only we had a Born-Again Evangelical representative...

[CultureKing]

The consensus here is probably correct but did anyone notice that the partisan id in this poll is 35% R 34% D 27%I, while the one last month was 37% D 33% R 26% I? Burner was down 14 points among independents in June and is tied now.

check out the June poll
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b0b522d3-c821-4ab4-9b46-ed3193051829

That said I tend to agree with the judgments about Burner being a poor candidate running a mediocre campaign. That said this is an increasingly tough district for a Republican. Kerry won it by 3, and Obama will probably win it by 6 or 7 easily. Is there any Republican in the country not named Chris Shays or Mike Castle who holds a seat that Democratic?

I think we will get a clue with the August primary numbers, but I have hunch that this district is running away from Reichert, and I for one would not be so quick to write off Burner just because she is weak. She will benefit enormously from the turnout dynamic, and this is not really Rossi's turf. Need I remind you that on 10/30 2006, Rossi led her 51-45 in another surveryusa poll, and she came within 2 points of winning?

Also, can a candidate win the top-2 primary outright if they get over 50%?  Given the way primary turnout has been going this year, if I were Reichert I would put some real effort into turnout if that's the case.

I think she is more of a poor candidate who is running a great campaign considering her qualifications. The amount of money that she raises is astounding.

[bgwah]

Although the Eastside makes up a large portion of the 8th district, I think it's important to remember that much of it also east King and Pierce counties, which are much more Republican friendly.

Secondly, I believe most of Redmond and Kirkland (a huge part of the Eastside as well the most liberal part of the Eastside) are actually in the 1st District (Inslee). Bellevue, the small rich cities, Sammamish, and Issaquah are really the only parts of the Eastside actually in the district.

I'm also not sure what makes you think new condo developments are so liberal. The Kirkland Waterfront (arguably the most urban area of the Eastside) is also the most Republican part of Kirkland, with Kerry only getting about 52% IIRC (as compared to 60% citywide).

There wasn't much residential in Downtown Bellevue in 2004 or 2006 really, but there are definitely a ton of new people moving there. It will be interesting to see how all of these new residents vote--until then we can only speculate.

Microsoft is also taking up huge amounts of new office space in Bellevue. Part of me wonders if this means the more liberal Microsofties--the ones who currently reverse commute from Seattle to the Eastside, and desire an urban lifestyle--may move to the Eastside/8th District as places like Downtown Bellevue grow (to move closer to the Redmond campus or because they will actually be working downtown).

The other area of growth I can think of is the Issaquah Highlands, which is actually been pretty Democratic so far.

But overall, I don't think the Eastside has truly seen a huge amount of growth outside of several select areas. It certainly doesn't compare to the growth seen in suburban Pierce and Snohomish counties. But the area has definitely been trending massively Democratic, and the Sammamish Plateau (the last Bush bastion on the Eastside outside of Medina/Clyde Hill) is likely to fall to Obama this year.

I honestly think the Eastside today is comparable to parts of North Seattle in the 1970's (Wallingford, Fremont, Ballard, etc.) politically. By that I mean they were very Republican a decade prior (Wallingford and Fremont voted Goldwater in 1964 and were among his best areas in the state), and the Eastside probably peaked in it's love for the GOP a decade ago in the mid-1990's (Dino Rossi actually lost his first bid for state senate in 1992, and only managed to get in in 1996. We also had at least one state legislator, the name of whom escapes me at the moment, who switched parties from D to R), and now we have people like Fred Jarret and Rodney Tom going from R to D, with the 5th legislative district as the last Republican hold-out on the Eastside for seats in the state legislature. Seattle is already quite similar to San Francisco in it's love for the Democrats (or should I say hatred for the Republicans?), and the Eastside is beginning it's massive Fremont/Wallingfordesque trend to solid Democrat. Politically, the Puget Sound will start looking more and more like the Bay Area, and the Eastside will be the first wealthier suburban area to go hardcore Democrat like we see with many wealthy areas in the Bay Area. Suburbs like Renton, Shoreline, Edmonds, and Lake Forest Park have already gotten very Democratic.

Seattle (the 7th district) had a Republican representative in the 70's, and now we've gotten to the point where the mere idea of a Republican winning that district is downright laughable! Reichert is akin to that 70's Republican Representative, and will be the last of his kind to represent the 8th District.

The bright spot is, with so many Democratic legislators on the Eastside now, there is a much larger pool of good candidates to take down the 8th Reich. If Burner can't do it, the number of people who can will keep on growing and before we know it, we won't have to worry about getting not-so-great candidates like Ross and Burner because there will be plenty of great potential candidates. Someday.

[ottermax]

Although the Eastside makes up a large portion of the 8th district, I think it's important to remember that much of it also east King and Pierce counties, which are much more Republican friendly.

Secondly, I believe most of Redmond and Kirkland (a huge part of the Eastside as well the most liberal part of the Eastside) are actually in the 1st District (Inslee). Bellevue, the small rich cities, Sammamish, and Issaquah are really the only parts of the Eastside actually in the district.

I'm also not sure what makes you think new condo developments are so liberal. The Kirkland Waterfront (arguably the most urban area of the Eastside) is also the most Republican part of Kirkland, with Kerry only getting about 52% IIRC (as compared to 60% citywide).

There wasn't much residential in Downtown Bellevue in 2004 or 2006 really, but there are definitely a ton of new people moving there. It will be interesting to see how all of these new residents vote--until then we can only speculate.

Microsoft is also taking up huge amounts of new office space in Bellevue. Part of me wonders if this means the more liberal Microsofties--the ones who currently reverse commute from Seattle to the Eastside, and desire an urban lifestyle--may move to the Eastside/8th District as places like Downtown Bellevue grow (to move closer to the Redmond campus or because they will actually be working downtown).

The other area of growth I can think of is the Issaquah Highlands, which is actually been pretty Democratic so far.

But overall, I don't think the Eastside has truly seen a huge amount of growth outside of several select areas. It certainly doesn't compare to the growth seen in suburban Pierce and Snohomish counties. But the area has definitely been trending massively Democratic, and the Sammamish Plateau (the last Bush bastion on the Eastside outside of Medina/Clyde Hill) is likely to fall to Obama this year.

I honestly think the Eastside today is comparable to parts of North Seattle in the 1970's (Wallingford, Fremont, Ballard, etc.) politically. By that I mean they were very Republican a decade prior (Wallingford and Fremont voted Goldwater in 1964 and were among his best areas in the state), and the Eastside probably peaked in it's love for the GOP a decade ago in the mid-1990's (Dino Rossi actually lost his first bid for state senate in 1992, and only managed to get in in 1996. We also had at least one state legislator, the name of whom escapes me at the moment, who switched parties from D to R), and now we have people like Fred Jarret and Rodney Tom going from R to D, with the 5th legislative district as the last Republican hold-out on the Eastside for seats in the state legislature. Seattle is already quite similar to San Francisco in it's love for the Democrats (or should I say hatred for the Republicans?), and the Eastside is beginning it's massive Fremont/Wallingfordesque trend to solid Democrat. Politically, the Puget Sound will start looking more and more like the Bay Area, and the Eastside will be the first wealthier suburban area to go hardcore Democrat like we see with many wealthy areas in the Bay Area. Suburbs like Renton, Shoreline, Edmonds, and Lake Forest Park have already gotten very Democratic.

Seattle (the 7th district) had a Republican representative in the 70's, and now we've gotten to the point where the mere idea of a Republican winning that district is downright laughable! Reichert is akin to that 70's Republican Representative, and will be the last of his kind to represent the 8th District.

The bright spot is, with so many Democratic legislators on the Eastside now, there is a much larger pool of good candidates to take down the 8th Reich. If Burner can't do it, the number of people who can will keep on growing and before we know it, we won't have to worry about getting not-so-great candidates like Ross and Burner because there will be plenty of great potential candidates. Someday.

Maybe 2010, my last year here.... (unless I come back later)

I really like Burner, I would be so sad if she lost. At least Reichert isn't horrible.

[Mr.Phips]

Although the Eastside makes up a large portion of the 8th district, I think it's important to remember that much of it also east King and Pierce counties, which are much more Republican friendly.

Secondly, I believe most of Redmond and Kirkland (a huge part of the Eastside as well the most liberal part of the Eastside) are actually in the 1st District (Inslee). Bellevue, the small rich cities, Sammamish, and Issaquah are really the only parts of the Eastside actually in the district.

I'm also not sure what makes you think new condo developments are so liberal. The Kirkland Waterfront (arguably the most urban area of the Eastside) is also the most Republican part of Kirkland, with Kerry only getting about 52% IIRC (as compared to 60% citywide).

There wasn't much residential in Downtown Bellevue in 2004 or 2006 really, but there are definitely a ton of new people moving there. It will be interesting to see how all of these new residents vote--until then we can only speculate.

Microsoft is also taking up huge amounts of new office space in Bellevue. Part of me wonders if this means the more liberal Microsofties--the ones who currently reverse commute from Seattle to the Eastside, and desire an urban lifestyle--may move to the Eastside/8th District as places like Downtown Bellevue grow (to move closer to the Redmond campus or because they will actually be working downtown).

The other area of growth I can think of is the Issaquah Highlands, which is actually been pretty Democratic so far.

But overall, I don't think the Eastside has truly seen a huge amount of growth outside of several select areas. It certainly doesn't compare to the growth seen in suburban Pierce and Snohomish counties. But the area has definitely been trending massively Democratic, and the Sammamish Plateau (the last Bush bastion on the Eastside outside of Medina/Clyde Hill) is likely to fall to Obama this year.

I honestly think the Eastside today is comparable to parts of North Seattle in the 1970's (Wallingford, Fremont, Ballard, etc.) politically. By that I mean they were very Republican a decade prior (Wallingford and Fremont voted Goldwater in 1964 and were among his best areas in the state), and the Eastside probably peaked in it's love for the GOP a decade ago in the mid-1990's (Dino Rossi actually lost his first bid for state senate in 1992, and only managed to get in in 1996. We also had at least one state legislator, the name of whom escapes me at the moment, who switched parties from D to R), and now we have people like Fred Jarret and Rodney Tom going from R to D, with the 5th legislative district as the last Republican hold-out on the Eastside for seats in the state legislature. Seattle is already quite similar to San Francisco in it's love for the Democrats (or should I say hatred for the Republicans?), and the Eastside is beginning it's massive Fremont/Wallingfordesque trend to solid Democrat. Politically, the Puget Sound will start looking more and more like the Bay Area, and the Eastside will be the first wealthier suburban area to go hardcore Democrat like we see with many wealthy areas in the Bay Area. Suburbs like Renton, Shoreline, Edmonds, and Lake Forest Park have already gotten very Democratic.

Seattle (the 7th district) had a Republican representative in the 70's, and now we've gotten to the point where the mere idea of a Republican winning that district is downright laughable! Reichert is akin to that 70's Republican Representative, and will be the last of his kind to represent the 8th District.

The bright spot is, with so many Democratic legislators on the Eastside now, there is a much larger pool of good candidates to take down the 8th Reich. If Burner can't do it, the number of people who can will keep on growing and before we know it, we won't have to worry about getting not-so-great candidates like Ross and Burner because there will be plenty of great potential candidates. Someday.

I think WA-07 in the 70's included much more territory that was more Republican than it does now.  The legislature pretty much created WA-08 in 1981 using the Republican parts of WA-07 and WA-02 that needed to be shed from those districts. 

[bgwah]

^ Do you have a map?

In 1970, Washington had 3,409,169 people. With seven districts, this equates to about 487,024 people per district. Seattle had 530,831 people in 1970, so the city had more than enough people to warrant it's own congressional district.

I'm not positive, but I think it's likely there would have been a mostly Seattle district... If you have more information, I would love to have it.

Nevertheless, my point still stands. The 43rd congressional district, which even then contained what are now very liberal areas, was voting Republican.