Will Mark Warner help Barrack carry Virginia?
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  Will Mark Warner help Barrack carry Virginia?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What percent will Mark Warner's Senate candidacy help Barrack Obama in Virginia?
#1
No effect		  
#2
0-1%		  
#3
1-3%		  
#4
more than 3%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: Will Mark Warner help Barrack carry Virginia?  (Read 4720 times)
RJ
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« on: July 20, 2008, 11:09:40 PM »
With him running for senate this year, will there be a coattails effect for Obama? Would something like this show up in the polls?

Reason I ask is that I've never really seen the coattails effect change the outcome of an election that much. One example I can think of is in 2004 when Obama won his senate seat by a whopping margin, but Kerry didn't outperform Al Gore from 4 years earlier.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2008, 01:52:58 AM »
Coattails don't work in this direction.
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Smid
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2008, 06:21:49 AM »
Coat-tails only work if they bring out voters who would otherwise stay at home. Obama in Illinois may have had cross party appeal, and that may have boosted his result, whereas the Republicans who voted for Obama then went and voted for Bush over Kerry.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2008, 01:56:58 PM »

     Agreed. If people aren't interested enough in Obama to come out to vote for him for president, I strongly doubt that ANY senatorial candidate could bring them out for him.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2008, 01:58:55 PM »
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Torie
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2008, 03:40:55 PM »

Certainly reverse one's won't.
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phk
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2008, 05:04:16 PM »
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2008, 10:04:47 PM »
It'll have an effect, but a small one, under 0.5%.
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Franzl
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2008, 06:24:26 AM »
Quote from: RJ on July 20, 2008, 11:09:40 PM
With him running for senate this year, will there be a coattails effect for Obama? Would something like this show up in the polls?

Reason I ask is that I've never really seen the coattails effect change the outcome of an election that much. One example I can think of is in 2004 when Obama won his senate seat by a whopping margin, but Kerry didn't outperform Al Gore from 4 years earlier.

It's quite important that his opponent happened to be Alan Keyes.
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MODU
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« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2008, 10:25:16 PM »

Virginia likes Blue Dogs, but Obama is far from one.  I would think that those that would support an Obama/Warner ticket are already supporting Obama alone.  So no real effect.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2008, 09:49:43 PM »

What about 1988 West Virginia?

I remember someone making a post about reverse coattails in that election.
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TomC
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« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2008, 02:15:33 AM »
If Warner uses significant resources to really turn out lower income voters, it could make a difference, but no if all else is equal, it won't make a diff.
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perdedor
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« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2008, 04:11:47 PM »
If it makes any difference it will be 1% at the most.
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RJ
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« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2008, 10:41:41 PM »
Quote from: arnold layne on August 25, 2008, 04:11:47 PM
If it makes any difference it will be 1% at the most.

As close as VA is I'd be happy with a 1 point swing.
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