WI-08: Internal says Gard (R) trails Rep. Kagen (D), McCain leads Obama

[Tender Branson]

WASHINGTON — This year's rematch between Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican John Gard could be as close their first contest in 2006, according to a poll released Thursday by the Gard campaign.

The survey of 400 likely voters puts Gard 4 percentage points behind Kagen, a first-term House member.

The poll found 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for Gard while 46 percent chose Kagen. Eleven percent were undecided, according to Public Opinion Strategies, which conducted the poll for Gard and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The company, a Republican polling firm in Virginia, said the margin of error was 4.9 percent.

When pressed, a majority of the undecided voters said they preferred someone new rather than the incumbent, according to Public Opinion Strategies.

Kagen, who won the seat with less 6,000 votes, could not be reached for comment. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had no response.

Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg included the Kagen-Gard race among those to watch in a report he issued Thursday. He cited Northeast Wisconsin's Republican leanings and Kagen's bumpy start in 2007.

However, Rothenberg did not include it in his top tier races to watch.

Wendy Scattergood, a political scientist at St. Norbert College, said the poll seems to reaffirm that the 8th District is closely divided.

"One of the things about polling this early is that it gives a snapshot in time. We tend to be a swing district," Scattergood said.

The poll also found that Republican presidential candidate John McCain leads Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama 46 percent to 41 percent. Twelve percent of likely voters were undecided.

Scattergood said that result also fits with the district's history of voting for George Bush over Democratic opponents Al Gore and John Kerry.

If the presidential race brings out more voters, Kagen could be vulnerable given that the district has only sent two Democrats to the House since 1943.

But Scattergood said a larger turnout also could mean more independents, who comprise an estimated 15 percent of Wisconsin voters, go to the polls. They are harder to predict.

http://www.postcrescent.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080717/APC0101/80717137/1979

[Tender Branson]

Good for the Democrats when your own poll has you down 4.

BTW: What percentage did Bush get in WI-08 ?

[minionofmidas]

Bush got 55% here. And it's traditionally lean-Republican territory, with fairly ossified voting patterns.

When you win a seat that looks like the kind of seat you probably can't win, a rematch is basically a free pass. Must be some kind of issues with Gard, although I'm not sure what they are. Gard's resumee looked much more heavyweight than Kagen's.

Although it should be pointed out that the last time the seat was open, in 1996, it also elected a Democrat... and ousted him one term later. Though not in a rematch. Of course, the state lost a district in 2000, though the district has not changed all that much IIRC.

I don't really know enough about this race, and have long known that I need to know more about it.