OR: Rasmussen: Merkley now even with Sen. Smith
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  OR: Rasmussen: Merkley now even with Sen. Smith
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Author Topic: OR: Rasmussen: Merkley now even with Sen. Smith  (Read 1558 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 16, 2008, 11:50:58 AM »

New Poll: Oregon Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-07-15

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Flying Dog
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2008, 12:00:55 PM »

Very good news for my side. It seems that Oregon voters are able to see the difference between Senator Smith and Senator Obama. His attempt at attaching himself to Obama has seemed to failed for the moment.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2008, 12:04:31 PM »

Awesome.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2008, 12:19:11 PM »

I still worry about this one. From most to least vulnerable:

Virginia (lost), New Mexico (lost), New Hampshire (basically lost), Colorado (eh...still some hope) and then Oregon.

I think Smith will pull it out in the end though.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2008, 12:59:20 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2008, 01:03:56 PM by MarkWarner08 »

Another example of an ad blitz working. I've been an intern with the Merkley camp for a few months and I can tell you the DSCC and the Majority Fund have covered our a$$es over the last few months. This poll is indicative of Smith's failed efforts to please everyone. The conservatives are now in revolt over his pro-amnesty views and the liberals and moderates see right through his pandering.

Smith has been too clever by a half.

Edit: I still have this race rated as "Leans Republican." Smith's commanding CoH edge could be the deciding factor in this race.

Edit two: I was divided between registering in TX-07 to vote for Michael Skelly or registering in OR to support Merkley. This reaffirms my initial view that my symbolic democratic gesture matters more in my home state.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2008, 01:12:50 PM »

Another example of an ad blitz working. I've been an intern with the Merkley camp for a few months and I can tell you the DSCC and the Majority Fund have covered our a$$es over the last few months. This poll is indicative of Smith's failed efforts to please everyone. The conservatives are now in revolt over his pro-amnesty views and the liberals and moderates see right through his pandering.

Smith has been too clever by a half.

Edit: I still have this race rated as "Leans Republican." Smith's commanding CoH edge could be the deciding factor in this race.

Edit two: I was divided between registering in TX-07 to vote for Michael Skelly or registering in OR to support Merkley. This reaffirms my initial view that my symbolic democratic gesture matters more in my home state.

If you went to Rice and were politically active for the Dems and did something like register in for TX-07 over Oregon, I might be questioning why they let you into Rice in the first place.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2008, 01:16:00 PM »

Another example of an ad blitz working. I've been an intern with the Merkley camp for a few months and I can tell you the DSCC and the Majority Fund have covered our a$$es over the last few months. This poll is indicative of Smith's failed efforts to please everyone. The conservatives are now in revolt over his pro-amnesty views and the liberals and moderates see right through his pandering.

Smith has been too clever by a half.

Edit: I still have this race rated as "Leans Republican." Smith's commanding CoH edge could be the deciding factor in this race.

Edit two: I was divided between registering in TX-07 to vote for Michael Skelly or registering in OR to support Merkley. This reaffirms my initial view that my symbolic democratic gesture matters more in my home state.

If you went to Rice and were politically active for the Dems and did something like register in for TX-07 over Oregon, I might be questioning why they let you into Rice in the first place.
Are you suggesting the admissions committee should include a political acumen test with the essays? Tongue
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2008, 01:17:17 PM »

Awesome. Grin
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2008, 01:19:27 PM »

Another example of an ad blitz working. I've been an intern with the Merkley camp for a few months and I can tell you the DSCC and the Majority Fund have covered our a$$es over the last few months. This poll is indicative of Smith's failed efforts to please everyone. The conservatives are now in revolt over his pro-amnesty views and the liberals and moderates see right through his pandering.

Smith has been too clever by a half.

Edit: I still have this race rated as "Leans Republican." Smith's commanding CoH edge could be the deciding factor in this race.

Edit two: I was divided between registering in TX-07 to vote for Michael Skelly or registering in OR to support Merkley. This reaffirms my initial view that my symbolic democratic gesture matters more in my home state.

If you went to Rice and were politically active for the Dems and did something like register in for TX-07 over Oregon, I might be questioning why they let you into Rice in the first place.
Are you suggesting the admissions committee should include a political acumen test with the essays? Tongue

For those who have political interests, I don't see why they shouldnt'.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2008, 01:27:57 PM »

Amen. I've been waiting 12 years for this moment. I still remember Smith's disingenuous ads against Tom Bruggere back in '96.  I'll never forgive Smith for the way he acted toward Bill Bradbury in 2002 was . When Bradbury, who suffers from MS, asked Smith to agree to a sit-down debate, Smith refused. The sole TV debate of the campaign thus featured the tall, handsome Smith towering over the sickly Bradbury who was sitting down. At the time, Smith was up by 15% in most polls; he won by 20%. There was no need for him to humiliate Bradbury like that.

Thank goodness he can't pull that trick on Merkley, who at 6'3'' is taller than Smith. Merkley, a mill worker's son turned Stanford and Princeton grad, also towers over the BYU-educated Smith, the son of a wealthy frozen pea producer, in the brains department. Merkley embodies America's meritocratic ideal, while Smith is just  another rich boy who jaunts around in Ferraris.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2008, 01:36:29 PM »

Another example of an ad blitz working. I've been an intern with the Merkley camp for a few months and I can tell you the DSCC and the Majority Fund have covered our a$$es over the last few months. This poll is indicative of Smith's failed efforts to please everyone. The conservatives are now in revolt over his pro-amnesty views and the liberals and moderates see right through his pandering.

Smith has been too clever by a half.

Edit: I still have this race rated as "Leans Republican." Smith's commanding CoH edge could be the deciding factor in this race.

Edit two: I was divided between registering in TX-07 to vote for Michael Skelly or registering in OR to support Merkley. This reaffirms my initial view that my symbolic democratic gesture matters more in my home state.

If you went to Rice and were politically active for the Dems and did something like register in for TX-07 over Oregon, I might be questioning why they let you into Rice in the first place.
Are you suggesting the admissions committee should include a political acumen test with the essays? Tongue

For those who have political interests, I don't see why they shouldnt'.
Well, those admissions folks are already inundated with information about their applicants. They probably care more about things like who well one writes, and how one did in the classroom. Anyway, the SAT II and AP exams do a decent job of testing one. I don't see the need for yet another exam.

Sorry for the thread-jack....
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bgwah
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2008, 04:13:47 PM »

The GOP should be careful, but I think Smith will win. His "repositioning" will probably work (Think Alcon-type voters).
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Rococo4
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2008, 10:54:11 PM »

The GOP should be careful, but I think Smith will win. His "repositioning" will probably work (Think Alcon-type voters).

I would think he would hold on, but after 2006, I wont be sure until after the fact.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2008, 11:07:10 PM »

The GOP should be careful, but I think Smith will win. His "repositioning" will probably work (Think Alcon-type voters).
Tell that to George Allen. In the summer of '06, Allen spent a million or so on green-washing ads in NoVa. After the campaign, Wadhams acknowledged that those ads did nothing. Smith's suffering from the same problem. 85% of Oregon think the nation is on the wrong track, 70% disapprove of Bush, and the ones who are paying attention (i.e., the likely voters) aren't buying Smith's ebullient ads. In a pro-incumbent environment like 1998, Smith's BS might sell. 

As my grandfather used to say, "cotton candy sells on a sunny summer day, but nobody wants that saccharine stuff when it rains."

Smith's latest ad claimed Merkley is the biggest tax-raiser in Oregon history. Well, that dog don't hunt. As voters are introduced to Merkley, they meet a working class hero who went from Myrtle Creek to a man who was praised as one of the top five grads of his class at Princeton. Unlike the ever-unctuous Smith, Merkley is a humble civil servant who relishes reading the likes of Sophocles and Socrates in his spare time.  I'm not a big fan of most politicians, which I probably why I like Merkley so much. He could just as easily be working at Brookings right now. With our country at its lowest point since the late 1970s, it's time we had more thinkers in Washington.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2008, 01:04:22 AM »

It's a shame Jeff Merkley doesn't live in Minnesota.  I'd much rather see him in a close race with Norm Coleman than Gordon Smith.  It's kind of like the Whitehouse over Chafee pickup in Rhode Island.  Smith isn't moderate like Chafee, but he's not a crazy blood-thirsty Republican.  Like Rhode Island, it was a nice little victory, but there were bigger fish to fry that would've been nicer (Bill Frist's seat).

I'm sure a lot of Democrats would be willing trade a Senate that features Sheldon Whitehouse and Bob Corker for a Senate that features Lincoln Chafee and Harold Ford.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2008, 01:04:30 AM »

The GOP should be careful, but I think Smith will win. His "repositioning" will probably work (Think Alcon-type voters).

Voters who fight with CARLHAYDEN over poll semantics all the time?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2008, 10:36:22 AM »

Rasmussen has Franken up by two pts over Coleman and Survey USA has Coleman up by double digits, I rather see another pollster before I think this is really a pickup opportunity for the Dems, but it is clear now that Smith is now the fifth most vulnerable republican senator.
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Rob
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« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2008, 04:06:36 PM »

I voted for Steve Novick, and I was upset when he lost, but if Merkley can pull this off... we don't need an opportunist Mormon Republican representing us in the Senate.
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