Australian By-Election: Mayo & Lyne [Date Unknown]

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Why is the FFP at 11.2% in Mayo?

[Smid]

Why is the FFP at 11.2% in Mayo?

No idea - it's more a "little 'L' liberal" seat - socially moderate right-wingers, but the Liberal vote is lower than normal. There is no Labor candidate, so some socially conservative Labor voters may have voted Family First, probably preferencing Liberals ahead of the Greens.

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There's also an Indie doing well in Mayo, 16%.

[Хahar 🤔]

Wow. The Greens could pick up Mayo.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Wow. The Greens could pick up Mayo.

Results posted on the Australian Electoral Commission website suggest as of 9.16 PM last night that Jamie Briggs, the Liberal Party candidate will win Mayo, thus keeping the safe Liberal seat in Liberal Party hands. Interesting to see that Lynton Vonow, the Green candidate is refusing to concede to Briggs despite 79 out of 82 polling boothes having their votes counted.

I wonder if talks of a potential merger between the Liberal and National parties will occur once more upon the once safe National seat of Lyne falling into the Independent column, thanks to Independent candidate Rob Oakeshott defeating his National Party opponent comfortably in 2PP.

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I wonder if talks of a potential merger between the Liberal and National parties will occur once more upon the once safe National seat of Lyne falling into the Independent column, thanks to Independent candidate Rob Oakeshott defeating his National Party opponent comfortably in 2PP.

Oakeshott is really a Nat either way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mayo was nearly lost to the Democrats back in the '90's so this sort of result for the Greenies is nay a surprise. It will never vote for the class enemy, but it's less of a problem with dumping the Liberals. Or toying with it.

[Smid]

Mayo was nearly lost to the Democrats back in the '90's so this sort of result for the Greenies is nay a surprise. It will never vote for the class enemy, but it's less of a problem with dumping the Liberals. Or toying with it.

1998, to be precise.

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Mayo was nearly lost to the Democrats back in the '90's so this sort of result for the Greenies is nay a surprise. It will never vote for the class enemy, but it's less of a problem with dumping the Liberals. Or toying with it.

1998, to be precise.

I assume quite a few of those Greenies and Dems vote Liberal in a Lib-ALP 2PP?

[Smid]

Mayo was nearly lost to the Democrats back in the '90's so this sort of result for the Greenies is nay a surprise. It will never vote for the class enemy, but it's less of a problem with dumping the Liberals. Or toying with it.

1998, to be precise.

I assume quite a few of those Greenies and Dems vote Liberal in a Lib-ALP 2PP?

Depends... Greens probably not so much so, and the Democrats have pretty much vanished from the political scene. That said, you can actually look at the distribution of preferences on the aec website...

In 2007, primary votes were distributed between the Liberal incumbent and Labor candidate to determine the 2PP result. Of the other candidates who ran, their votes were distributed thus:

http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionTcpFlow-13745-188.htm
Showing that in the division of Mayo:
21.19% of Green voters preferenced the Liberals ahead of Labor,
65.2% of Family First voters preferenced the Liberals ahead of Labor,
34.04% of Democrat voters preferenced the Liberals ahead of Labor, and
39.57% of Conservatives for Climate and Environment voters preferenced the Liberals ahead of Labor.