Australian By-Election: Mayo & Lyne [Date Unknown]

[Robespierre's Jaw]

With former Foreign Affairs Minister and leader of the Liberal Party from 1994 to 1995, Alexander Downer resigning from Federal Parliament this week, constituents of Downer's seat of Mayo, in the posh Adelaide Hills and a safe Liberal seat to go, will cast their ballots to decide who succeeds Downer sometime before Federal Parliament resumes before late August. As of yet, the date is known and I'll get back to you on that.



2007 Mayo Results

Alexander Downer (Liberal): 51.08% (45,893) -2.56%
Mary Brewerton (Labor): 31.12% (27,957) +14.63%
Lynton Vonow (Green): 10.96% (9,849) +3.36%
Trish Nolan (Family First): 4.02% (3,615) +0.37%
Andrew Castrique (Democrats): 1.52% (1,369) -0.29%
Rachael Barons (CC): 1.30% (1,165) +1.30%

2007 Mayo Results 2PP

Alexander Downer (Liberal): 57.06% (51,264) -6.53%
Mary Brewerton (Labor): 42.94% (38,584) +42.94%

[Hash]

A small swing back to the Liberals is the likely result, I assume?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

A small swing back to the Liberals is the likely result, I assume?

Considering the recent results in Gipplsand, I would say so, even though there is threats of a bitter contest for the Libs preselection between conservative and moderate wings of the South Australian Liberal Party. Both led by Nick Minchin of the conservative wing and Christopher Pyne of the moderate wing. And Alexander Downer not endorsing anyone's candidacy does not help either.

Also, be prepared for more by-elections in the upcoming months down under as former Deputy Prime Minister and former leader of the National Party Mark Vaile is hinting at resigning his safe National seat of Lyne in New South Wales.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, be prepared for more by-elections in the upcoming months down under as former Deputy Prime Minister and former leader of the National Party Mark Vaile is hinting at resigning his safe National seat of Lyne in New South Wales.

Oh. Now that's a safe Coalition seat, but not a safe National seat. Good chance of a Liberal gain there.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Also, be prepared for more by-elections in the upcoming months down under as former Deputy Prime Minister and former leader of the National Party Mark Vaile is hinting at resigning his safe National seat of Lyne in New South Wales.

Oh. Now that's a safe Coalition seat, but not a safe National seat. Good chance of a Liberal gain there.

If they do what the Coalition did in Gippsland last week, then it's definantly a safe Coaltion seat. Though I cannot forsee the Liberals gaining that seat from the Nationals. More than likely they'll gain 10-20% of the vote and thanks to preferential voting the Nationals will enjoy a nice swing towards them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though I cannot forsee the Liberals gaining that seat from the Nationals. More than likely they'll gain 10-20% of the vote and thanks to preferential voting the Nationals will enjoy a nice swing towards them.

The last time the Liberals ran a candidate there (in 1993) they were only two votes behind the Nats on first prefs. And demographic changes in that part of the World since then have... not... exactly... been to favourable to the farmers party.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Though I cannot forsee the Liberals gaining that seat from the Nationals. More than likely they'll gain 10-20% of the vote and thanks to preferential voting the Nationals will enjoy a nice swing towards them.

The last time the Liberals ran a candidate there (in 1993) they were only two votes behind the Nats on first prefs. And demographic changes in that part of the World since then have... not... exactly... been to favourable to the farmers party.

That I did not know. I don't know whether I should be pleased that you know that or pleased that I do not. But nonetheless I appreciate your insight, which is always quite handy .

If we do take a look at results from the past election contested in Vaile's seat of Lyne, of course we can state the obvious that it is indeed a safe Nationals seat and has been since the 1949 Election, where the Liberal/Country Coalition smashed Ben Chifley and his Labor Government. As you said Lyne has changed drastically since it's creation in 1949, with an influx of retirees and cityslickers seeking a seachange, but the ALP has failed to capitalise upon recent demographic changes in the electorate. If the ALP cannot capitalise on such ventures, I doubt the Liberal Party can too, though we'll have to wait until the by-election in Lyne is held.

[Smid]

Anthony Green's analysis of Mayo:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2008/mayo/

[Platypus]

Safe Liberal, 55-57% TPP.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Well Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon has officially selected Alexander Downer as the new special envoy to Cyprus. That finally means that the Mayo 2008 By-Election shall be held . Although we all know which party will win the Mayo result, it shall be fun nonetheless. You cannot beat Liberal Party in-fighting to see which faction the Libs put forth to replace Downer.

[Iosif is a COTHO]

Labor have decided to not field a candidate.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Vaile Quits Politics

Former deputy prime minister Mark Vaile has announced he is retiring from politics.

In a statement on his website, Mr Vaile, who has held the seat of Lyne on the NSW mid-north coast for the Nationals for the past 15 years, said he had timed his resignation so a by-election could be held on the same day as the Mayo by-election in South Australia.

"It is after a great deal of reflection following last year's federal election, I announce today that I will be stepping down," the former Nationals Party leader said.

"While spending more time with the family, I will take the opportunity to continue our community and charity work in our local area and at a national level, and in the future, I also intend pursuing interests in the private sector.

"In politics there is a burn-out factor and from time to time there needs to be renewal and reinvigoration of the team," he said.

Mr Vaile says he is proud of the policy work he did as trade minister in conjunction with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

"Our exporters have been big beneficiaries of these polices," he said.

"Our work to secure free trade agreements with Singapore, Thailand, the United States of America and Chile and launching negotiations with ASEAN, Malaysia, China and Japan are all outstanding policy achievements which I am honoured to be part of.

"Some of the proudest moments as trade minister were experienced leading the Australian delegation at the WTO ministerial meetings in Seattle, Doha, Cancun and Hong Kong where we positioned Australia in a key leadership role."

Mr Vaile says during his time in Federal Parliament he forged close friendships with many colleagues on both sides of politics.

"There have been many highs and many lows during the past 15 years," he said.

He paid tribute to the National Party, describing it as one of the finest institutions in the nation.

"In it's 85 year history it has provided a strong voice for the people of regional Australia in federal and state parliaments, and in government, a voice at the cabinet table," he said.

The acting leader of the NSW Nationals, Andrew Fraser, says the timing will help the Coalition's election runs.

"It'll make it a little more simple and, I would suggest that maybe if the Liberals concentrated on Mr Downer's previous seat and we concentrate on this one, I feel sure that both seats can be retained and returned to the Coalition," he said.


It's more than likely that both the Mayo and Lyne By-Elections shall be held on the same day, whenever that might be. I believe that the Coalition will easily hold onto both Mayo and Lyne. Although I wouldn't be surprised of a swing towards to Labor Party in Vaile's seat of Lyne, like in the previous election (which resulted in a 4.8% swing), judging by the current performance of the Rudd Government such a swing towards to the Labor Party might not be.

[Platypus]

Well, Mayo is safe, obviously. I doubt the Greens can get close in that kind of seat, but they might break 35% first preference. Expect the Democrats to have their best showing inj years, also.

Lyne is a bit different. The north coast of NSW is changing, and the demographic shift turns it into a lean to strong coalition seat. More and more, however,k it's a Liberal kind of seat, and that is why you have Mr. Fraser suggesting the Liberals back off, because if it is a three-way race, the Liberals might just get up.

[albertagirl]

RE: Mayo:  Things could be very interesting for the Coalition methinks...as I was reading up on a Mr. Bob Day who left the Liberal Party and now is considering running for Family First?  (Not sure how true this is... and I was reading this a week or two ago now, so not sure if there are updates since I have read it)

But hypothetically, wouldn't that be really bad for the Liberals there considering he is this big time recognised figure in the community there? At the very least, Day being the candidate would turn a safe Liberal seat into a very expensive by-election, like it did in Gippsland.  The Liberals must have spent heaps there.

I was just thinking that with this potential canadidate Mayo could be a lot more complex and expensive for the Liberal Party.

[Smid]

The Democrats made Mayo a marginal seat in 1998. The Liberals don't have a too much to fear from Family First there, it's the small "l" liberals who are more likely to shift if anything, IMO.

[albertagirl]

Well would they spend more money there if someone like Day ran?  Or would it just not be a concern at all?

[Smid]

Not sure, have to wait and see, but the seat has a lot of "doctors wives"

[Хahar 🤔]

Is this another loss for the Nationals to the Liberals? It's only a matter of time until the Nats leave the House.

[Smid]

Mayo - No. It's been held by Alexander Downer, who was actually Liberal/Opposition Leader before Howard.

[Хahar 🤔]

Mayo - No. It's been held by Alexander Downer, who was actually Liberal/Opposition Leader before Howard.

Lyne, I mean.

[Smid]

Possible, but I would think unlikely. That said, I don't know that part of the country well. Of course, it was probably also unlikely for the Liberals to pick up Tim Fischer's seat when he retired, too. The difference then, of course, was a popular conservative Liberal Prime Minister, which is very different to how the Opposition Leader is viewed today, so perhaps they'll be less likely to switch now to the Liberals, than had Mark Vaile retired mid-term during the Howard years...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

BUMP

We have a bumper crop of elections down under tonight! Firstly, we've got the State Election in Western Australia where the latest Newspol suggests a 50-50 tie between Carpenter and Barnett and secondly we've got by-elections in Lyne and Mayo. Though unlike the poll in Western Australia, the results in Lyne and Mayo are easily favoured for Independent Rob Oakeshott and for Liberal Jamie Briggs in Lyne and Mayo respectively.

Mayo and Lyne results will be posted throughout the night. Stay tuned Atlasia!

[Smid]

Yeah - the really interesting one will be the WA state election, the two by-elections are more than likely going to the candidates you mentioned.

www.aec.gov.au for up-to-the-minute results.

Currently in Lyne the Independent is on 64% of the primary vote, 74% of the 2 Candidate Preferred against the National Party. In Mayo, the Liberals are on 41% of the primary vote, and 51% 2 Candidate Preferred against the Greens.

[Hash]

Looking like a good night for the Liberals and Greenies.

[Smid]

Very tight still at the moment.

Liberals 1.74% ahead in Mayo presently.