Stupid polling question
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Author Topic: Stupid polling question  (Read 642 times)
Alcon
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« on: June 25, 2008, 01:28:41 PM »

So, I've anecdotally observed that polls tend to under-estimate the margins in landslide races a lot of the time.  Is this true, and is there any explanation of this phenomenon?

Wish Big V were still around.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2008, 01:30:00 PM »

So, I've anecdotally observed that polls tend to under-estimate the margins in landslide races a lot of the time.  Is this true, and is there any explanation of this phenomenon?

Wish Big V were still around.
I think we also tend to ignore polls that show outrageous margins that we cannot believe.  Pollsters also do not want to look foolish, I would assume, and release droves of ridiculous numbers.  However, I may be completely wrong
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2008, 01:54:32 PM »

So, I've anecdotally observed that polls tend to under-estimate the margins in landslide races a lot of the time.  Is this true, and is there any explanation of this phenomenon?

Wish Big V were still around.

Yes, but it tends not to occur is Presidential races.  Wonder why...
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2008, 01:55:07 PM »

Do we have any polls from '84, '72, and '64?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2008, 01:56:47 PM »


We do from '88 and '96, and my comment is correct there.  The polls were directly on in 1984, iirc.  Don't remember 1964 or 1972, actually, though there would be much fewer polls then than now.
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