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  OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 3%
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Author Topic: OR: Survey USA: Obama leads Oregon by 3%  (Read 1912 times)
Alcon
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« on: June 22, 2008, 04:58:49 pm »
« edited: June 22, 2008, 05:01:06 pm by Alcon »

New Poll: Oregon President by Survey USA on 2008-06-22

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 45% (+6)

Another SUSA poll with strange party ID numbers
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2008, 05:02:25 pm »

LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2008, 05:09:33 pm »

LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2008, 05:12:04 pm »

LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.

I thought he carried Multnomah county by 45 points or so?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2008, 05:15:37 pm »

LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.

I thought he carried Multnomah county by 45 points or so?

Well, Portland isn't actually equal to Multnomah County, and even if it were, Multnomah County isn't 64% of Oregon, as SUSA's sample is.

SUSA's "Portland" somehow manages to include not only the suburbs, but also the northern Pacific beaches, Salem and parts of the eastern Oregon plains (Huh).  It's terrible naming.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2008, 05:18:38 pm »

LOL, Obama leads by 9 in Portland?  No way.

Well, their definition of Portland is ridiculous.  Kerry won it by 11.7% while losing "Rest of State" by 9.4%.

It fits a 3% lead.  Not that I seriously think Obama leads Oregon by only 3%.  Lol summer polling.

I thought he carried Multnomah county by 45 points or so?

Well, Portland isn't actually equal to Multnomah County, and even if it were, Multnomah County isn't 64% of Oregon, as SUSA's sample is.

SUSA's "Portland" somehow manages to include not only the suburbs, but also the northern Pacific beaches, Salem and parts of the eastern Oregon plains (Huh).  It's terrible naming.

Oh, I guess that's why.  Thanks for clarifying. Smiley
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War on Want
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2008, 05:22:19 pm »

Trash poll
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Verily
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2008, 08:21:42 pm »

LOL at the gender numbers. And party affiliation. SUSA, please stop with the VP matchup polls. You're embarrassing yourself.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2008, 09:18:01 pm »

SUSA is putting out some wacky polls as of late. Summer polling .. some of these states are all over the map.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2008, 09:19:10 pm »

Unless, of course, it was good news for Obama in which case you would praise it uncontrolably
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Conan
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2008, 09:23:37 pm »

The advertisement on SUSA just had Ahmedinejad and Barack together by McCain's Campaign.
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Alcon
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2008, 09:30:06 pm »

The advertisement on SUSA just had Ahmedinejad and Barack together by McCain's Campaign.

And?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2008, 09:54:31 pm »

Obama is doing worse in OR than he is nationally? Sure, SUSA.
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agcatter
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2008, 07:55:53 am »

Nope.  Silly poll.  Wake me up after labor day when we start getting some valid numbers,  Some states will be swing states.  States like Oregon and Georgia won't be in that category.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2008, 09:27:38 am »

I think it's definitely narrowed since the primary (when Obama was just killing McCain), but not this much.  I would suspect Obama +6 or 7 at this point.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2008, 09:28:27 am »

Also, does the party affiliation seem really off to anyone else?  41% Republican and 42% Democratic?  That seems really high for Republicans.
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Alcon
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« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2008, 09:37:33 am »

Also, does the party affiliation seem really off to anyone else?  41% Republican and 42% Democratic?  That seems really high for Republicans.

Yes, especially since SUSA is pushy about party affiliation among independents, and the type of voters that should "push" would generally vote Democratic.  That is, a SUSA sample of Oregon should probably be slightly more Democratic than the exit poll, considering the lessened independents.
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Erc
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« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2008, 11:36:30 am »

I learned my lesson about Oregon last cycle, when I was convinced for most of the summer that the state would be competitive.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2008, 07:59:31 pm »

Also, does the party affiliation seem really off to anyone else?  41% Republican and 42% Democratic?  That seems really high for Republicans.

Not to mention the 41% pro-life and 39% that attend church regularly, both of which seem significantly higher than statewide averages.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2008, 10:11:02 pm »

Nope.  Silly poll.  Wake me up after labor day when we start getting some valid numbers,  Some states will be swing states.  States like Oregon and Georgia won't be in that category.

yep
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