WA-8: Reichert (R) leads Burner by 6%

[Alcon]

SUSA, 6/16-7, 679 LV

Highlights:

Reichert leads Burner by 13 among independents

Burner has only an 8-point lead among moderates

It's pretty funny that the "rural religious backwaters/tony-white suburbs" district of the Seattle metro is now about 40% non-churched, and those voters are the only reason that Burner is competitive.

Reichert leads voters with their minds made by 6, and the less-sure by 11.

Five respondents have decided to be permanently undecided, apparently.

[Meeker]

The Republican sample seems high to me, but I can live with this.

[Alcon]

The Republican sample seems high to me

SUSA hasn't really shown any change in their polling of the district since 2004.  They went from D+1 to D+2-3 in 2006 to D+3 now.  Not really sure what to make of that.  It's a really polarized district, but c'mon...

(They did predict a Ross +2 win in 2004, though, so I guess their real numbers were essentially a tie or R+1)

[CultureKing]

This is a bit troubling, she shoudl be doing better at this point. Hopefully a ton of tv ads will be ble to help her (also Obama).

[Meeker]

Speaking of TV ads, Burner has ditched her 2006 ad team that produced those gag/snore inducing horrorfests that she put on the air. The new ad team is much, much better (They did Tester and Novick's ads for example).

But I think the single biggest help here is, of course, Obama. With him at the top and the thousands of new voters coming out of the blue, I find it very difficult to see Burner losing at this rate. She'd have to screw something up really badly, or Reichert's going to have to catch another serial killer.

[Sam Spade]

Makes complete sense to me.

[ottermax]

Speaking of TV ads, Burner has ditched her 2006 ad team that produced those gag/snore inducing horrorfests that she put on the air. The new ad team is much, much better (They did Tester and Novick's ads for example).

But I think the single biggest help here is, of course, Obama. With him at the top and the thousands of new voters coming out of the blue, I find it very difficult to see Burner losing at this rate. She'd have to screw something up really badly, or Reichert's going to have to catch another serial killer.

Not a whole lot of young voters out here. I don't think there are even any colleges here and most people go to college here (affluent suburban kids...). Obama will help just because people here love him no matter their age. I think a lot of people who don't usually vote will be voting. Could it also be possible that the wealthier people in CD 8 are more Democratic? I also feel that a lot of people don't like answering poll calls here. This is such a bad district for Republicans, but Reichert will probably win. I hope not!

However this poll is a little strange. I think there are more liberal voters than polled and I think there are more Democrats. There are a lot of new residents here, especially in new condo developments, perfect voters for Obama and hopefully they will vote for Burner.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

However this poll is a little strange. I think there are more liberal voters than polled and I think there are more Democrats. There are a lot of new residents here, especially in new condo developments, perfect voters for Obama and hopefully they will vote for Burner.

Based on my past experience, condo owners are faaaaaaaaar less likely to vote than regular homeowners.

[bgwah]

Darcy Burner isn't a very good candidate. This seat should have gone Democratic when Jennifer Dunn retired, but the Washington State Democrats seem determined to run awful candidates who will allow Reichert to narrowly win each time. Oh well.

[Mr.Phips]

Darcy Burner isn't a very good candidate. This seat should have gone Democratic when Jennifer Dunn retired, but the Washington State Democrats seem determined to run awful candidates who will allow Reichert to narrowly win each time. Oh well.

You aint kidding.  Democrats should have picked up this seat in 2004 when John Kerry was carrying it.

[Meeker]

I honestly think Burner is a fine candidate... sure she has her weaknesses, but she also has her own advantages.

She was also the only one willing to run against Reichert in 2006 (I can tell you for a fact that others were recruited for the seat but weren't willing to even give it a try because they're pussies who I hate).

[bgwah]

Oh, and if Burner manages to ride Obama's coattails and get elected this year, I don't expect it to take long for the GOP to take the seat back.

[Mr.Phips]

Oh, and if Burner manages to ride Obama's coattails and get elected this year, I don't expect it to take long for the GOP to take the seat back.

I think once a Democrat gets this seat, its going to be a long time until Republicans get it back. 

[Meeker]

Oh, and if Burner manages to ride Obama's coattails and get elected this year, I don't expect it to take long for the GOP to take the seat back.

I think once a Democrat gets this seat, its going to be a long time until Republicans get it back. 

Yea, it's a Democratic district deep down... and pretty incumbent friendly. The Washington GOP is also teh suck.

[ottermax]

The only reason Reichert is the rep is because of the Green River murders. If it was any other Republican, they would lose.

[bgwah]

What can you do? Reichert is a hero. I mean, it's not like it took him nearly two decades to solve the case or anything. It's not like Ridgway had been identified as a suspect in the 80s, and dozens died while Reichert slowly solved the case.

Oh, wait... lulz



But really, I don't want to make it sound like I hate Darcy Burner or anything, because I of course hope she wins. The 8th Reich must be defeated!

[ottermax]

What can you do? Reichert is a hero. I mean, it's not like it took him nearly two decades to solve the case or anything. It's not like Ridgway had been identified as a suspect in the 80s, and dozens died while Reichert slowly solved the case.

Oh, wait... lulz



But really, I don't want to make it sound like I hate Darcy Burner or anything, because I of course hope she wins. The 8th Reich must be defeated!

I wish people here realized that.... 

I wonder what the results were by city. Alcon could you find some breakdown other than county for the results in 2006? Not urgently, I'm just highly curious.

[Alcon]

I wonder what the results were by city. Alcon could you find some breakdown other than county for the results in 2006? Not urgently, I'm just highly curious.

Wouldn't be too hard, if I get some free time this weekend.