electoral-vote maps coming into 2004

[Person Man]

May 31, 2004

June 30, 2004

July 31, 2004

August 31, 2004

September 30, 2004

October 31, 2004

Election Eve

Election Result

This Year-


June 18, 2008

June 18, 2004

[Ronnie]

In your "June 18th, 2008" map, Michigan should be Republican - RCP shows McCain with a 1.6 lead now.  They also show McCain tied with Obama in Virginia, so you may consider switching it to gray.

[Person Man]

This is electoral-vote, not RCP.

[Ronnie]

This is electoral-vote, not RCP.

Are you basing the states off of the latest Rasmussen polls, because most polls show McCain ahead in Michigan.

[Verily]

This is electoral-vote, not RCP.

Are you basing the states off of the latest Rasmussen polls, because most polls show McCain ahead in Michigan.

Electoral-vote uses the most recent polls and extrapolates a trend. In other words, if an older poll shows McCain leading while a newer poll shows Obama leading (as is the case in Michigan), Obama is assumed to be leading and gaining ground. It's pretty rudimentary, but they did reasonably well in 2004.

[kevinatcausa]

I don't think they even use a trend.  Their algorithm looks to me like:

Average all polls within a week of the most recent poll in each state, treating each poll equally.  If Obama's ahead, award the state 100% to Obama.  If McCain's ahead, award the state 100% to McCain. 

It tends to make for dramatic swings in the electoral vote totals.

[minionofmidas]

why did we start to loose ground in Florida towards the end of 2004? we carried it by five points.

Because of hurricanes, lack of a track record of high-turnout elections (Florida elections tended to have ridiculously low turnout. The increase in votes cast in Florida 2000-4 is extreme. And if you want to sob and cry about something, check out how few House elections in the state very seriously contested in the 80s and 90s), complex demographics etc, the state basically just wasn't easy to poll.

[DownWithTheLeft]

There method actually seems to be this:

Use the latest poll result

[Joe Biden 2020]

If I recall correctly, www.electoral-vote.com actually had Oklahoma going blue up until probably May or June.  We all know how that turned out.

[Aizen]

If I recall correctly, www.electoral-vote.com actually had Oklahoma going blue up until probably May or June.  We all know how that turned out.

I'm pretty sure you recall incorrectly. There's not a single poll on the atlas database that shows Oklahoma going blue and going back through the electoral-vote archives fails to show Oklahoma "going blue".

[Person Man]

However, the trend map had Oklahoma going Blue, but the trend map was very inaccurate throughout the election. I think the general maps are more reliable. I mean, the election was going back and forth throughout the May and Juny time and Kerry built a modest lead in the late summer. In September in Early October, Bush maintained a lead by calling Kerry a liar and a poser and got a good post-convention bounce. By late October, Kerry had won the debates and the election was very close. However, Bush won comfortably with his GOTV method which gave him 1.5 million voters and made 500,000 voters change their minds at the last minute.

Today's Map- June 28, 2008-

Rassmussen Report's poll towards McCain nuetralized Obama's lead in Florida; Missouri and Indiana switch.

[Person Man]

August 3, 2008

August 3, 2004